2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Chiefs at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

BENCHED STARTERS: The Chiefs have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so they won’t be playing their starters very much. I expect Patrick Mahomes and the starters to be on the field for a drive or two because Mahomes loves playing in meaningless games, including the preseason. However, he won’t be on the field for the entire first half. It’ll be Carson Wentz and the scrubs the rest of the way.

The Broncos should have their way with the Kansas City backups. Wentz is a high-quality reserve, but he won’t stand a chance against Denver’s defense without the services of Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, and the other receivers. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense should be able to score easily against a defense missing its top players.

RECAP: This is our fourth Aurora Snowmo game of the week, but this one is different. I’ve noticed over the years that teams in must-win situations don’t choke if they’re playing against a team resting its starters because there’s too much of a talent disparity between the Aurora Snowmo team and the backups on the resting squad. The Chiefs reserves will only be able to do so much against the desperate Broncos.

I suspect Denver will cover this spread, which looks rather large. However, it won’t seem very large when the Broncos are up 17-3 in the second quarter.

Because we’re forced to pay a premium on the Broncos covering in a must-win, I’ll pass on betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s interesting that this line fell off +11. There’s at least a bit of sharp action interested in backing the Chiefs.

SATURDAY NOTES: Looks like I was wrong about Patrick Mahomes playing a little bit because he’s listed as doubtful. Nevertheless, Andy made a compelling argument for the Chiefs on our Thursday show:

PLAYER PROPS: Marvin Mims will continue to torture me because I had a RM-tier Reignmaker card of him, but I will now make nothing off of it because DraftKings is stupid. Mims has hit 44 or more receiving yards in five of his six previous games, and yet the prop is 10 yards fewer than that. The best number is over 34.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: My Thursday and Saturday co-hosts, Andy and Tom, love the Chiefs. I can see the argument behind taking them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been sharp money on either side. The best line is +11 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

Aurora Snowmo Game No. 4.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: N/A.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

All the action on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 83% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 18 meetings.

Sean Payton is 9-3 SU vs. Andy Reid when coaching a winning team.

Sean Payton is 14-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 33 degrees. Light wind.