2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Panthers at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: Benching Kirk Cousins turned out to be the correct decision – except, it occurred way too late. The move should have been made several weeks prior when it was clear that Cousins had regressed from his Achilles injury. Michael Penix Jr. was excellent in the Sunday night affair despite making his first road start against a defensive-minded head coach.

Penix has his easiest matchup yet. The Panthers have a woeful defense that can’t stop anything. If Jaycee Horn can’t return from injury – he was sidelined versus the Buccaneers – then Carolina doesn’t have a prayer at stopping Drake London. Kyle Pitts also has a great matchup, though it’s unclear if the Panthers will get anything out of him. Pitts redeemed himself last week for dropping a pass that resulted in Penix’s first interception, but he could revert to slacking off.

Of course, Penix may not need to do much because the Panthers are so terrible against the run. The Falcons will be able to establish Bijan Robinson, just as the Buccaneers did last week with Bucky Irving.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: This would have been a great spot for Bryce Young and the rest of the Panthers offense prior to Week 12. That’s when Atlanta’s bye week transpired. Since the bye week, the Falcons are a staggering fourth in defensive EPA, despite battling the Vikings, Chargers, and Redskins in three of their five games.

The key to Atlanta’s improved defensive play has been an enhanced pass rush. The Falcons couldn’t get to the quarterback at all prior to their bye, but that has completely changed since Week 12. They now generate lots of heat on opposing quarterbacks, so it’ll help Young that he’s well protected – provided that he has a healthy offensive line in front of him. Taylor Moton missed last week’s game, so it’ll be helpful for Carolina to have him back this week.

The Falcons still have some issues in their secondary. The Young-to-Adam Thielen connection should work again, though Young will likely have to operate in long-yardage situations because won’t get much help from his running game with Chuba Hubbard sidelined.

RECAP: This is our second Aurora Snowmo game of the week. The Falcons need to win. Everyone expects them to beat the Panthers. This puts them in a position to choke.

I imagine Atlanta watched last week’s Carolina game and saw how awful the Panthers were. Carolina was in a rough spot, as the team was dealing with the flu and some significant injuries. Plus, the Buccaneers were motivated to bounce back from their defeat at Dallas.

We obviously haven’t seen any injury reports as of Tuesday afternoon, but I can only assume the Panthers will be healthier this week. They also won’t be dealing with the flu. They’ve shown that they can keep games close if the opposition doesn’t take them seriously, and I don’t think Atlanta will.

The Panthers look good at +8. This spread is inflated because the Falcons need to win, but as we know, teams that need to win often disappoint.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A number of key Panthers missed Wednesday’s practice – namely Jaycee Horn, Robert Hunt, and Josey Jewell – but it’s early enough for them to return for this game. I keep getting the feeling that the Panthers are going to win this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’d love to bet the Panthers to cover this high number because of the Aurora Snowmo phenomenon, but they have so many key injuries. Jaycee Horn and Josey Jewell are definitely out, while a couple of great offensive linemen – Taylor Moton, Robert Hunt – didn’t practice much this week.

PLAYER PROPS: Everyone’s betting Bijan Robinson here, but I’d rather go with Drake London. Young quarterbacks lock in on No. 1 receivers, and Jaycee Horn won’t be around to bother London. The best number is over 69.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are major injuries for both teams, as Darnell Mooney and Robert Hunt were ruled out for the Falcons and Panthers, respectively. The sharps are on the Panthers. The best line is +8 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

Aurora Snowmo Game No. 2.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Falcons -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Lots of money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 63% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 14 of the last 21 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -7.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.