2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Bills at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Here’s something someone said about my NFL Power Rankings:

Why do Vikings fans always do this? They always believe that their team is better than they really are. Maybe it’s because they have nothing better to do in that frozen hellscape, but who knows?

Here’s an exchange I had with this weirdo Jesse, who often posts stupid things on Twitter:

I love how this Jesse person thinks that someone can’t run a company and also post random things on Twitter. That’s some typical first-order thinking from morons who think like Jesse does.

Last one: I posted a link to one of my shirts, and some guy didn’t like it:

I’m willing to bet that Adam does nothing.

RESTED STARTERS: The Bills have clinched the No. 2 seed, so they will be resting their starters. Mitchell Trubisky will start along with the other backups, so there will not be a matchup breakdown of the game.

RECAP: You may have noticed that I have the Patriots projected to be -4.5 in the spread section of this pick capsule. If you’re wondering if I’m on drugs, no, I am not.

The Bills have clinched the No. 2 seed, so it would be shocking if they were to play their starters. With Trubisky throwing to a bunch of scrubs, I’d have the Bills as a Group F team, so Group F at Group D would warrant a line of above -4.

Despite this, we’re getting points with the Patriots, which seems absurd. The Bills have no interest in winning this game. Now, you might wonder if the Patriots would want to prevail because that would mean losing control of the No. 1 draft pick. However, we’ve seen teams disregard the importance of this, most recently the Giants with their win over the Colts. And it’s not like the Patriots even need a quarterback. I think a win means more to them than the top selection.

This is a big play on the Patriots, assuming Drake Maye plays. New England is a Group F team with Jacoby Brissett, so we wouldn’t have the same line value if Brissett were to be announced as the starter.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve heard some people speculate that the Patriots could rest Drake Maye to avoid further injury with him. It would also give the Patriots a better chance of losing to ensure the top pick. We’ve seen no hints of that, as Maye was limited in practice Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drake Maye is questionable. He was limited all week with a hand injury. Something is rubbing me the wrong way with that, so I’m going to remove my projected wager. Buffalo’s backups could easily win this game, especially if Maye is sidelined or hurt.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here. The Bills are sitting their starters, and the Patriots have injuries, including one to Drake Maye.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Drake Maye is active. However, there’s speculation that Joe Milton will see some action, so stay away from this one. The sharps haven’t touched this game either. The best line is +3.5 -115 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Bills are resting their starters.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: N/A (EPA in rested starter games will not be calculated).

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Do people not know about the Bills resting their starters?

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Patriots are 44-28 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Patriots are 15-6 ATS in the final week of the season since 2001.

Opening Line: Bills -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.