2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Vikings at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Detroit, home of the M&M. Guys, this is BS. Forgive me Mother for swearing, but I demanded to the network heads that I broadcast a game involving my Philadelphia Eagles, but they told me that it wasn’t an important game. BS, BS, BS! Every game involving my Philadelphia Eagles means something, even when we’re inevitably 16-0 one year and then are playing the worst team in the league. All that matters is my Philadelphia Eagles, and nothing else matters, including you idiots here with me! Hmph!

Emmitt: Thanks, Valvalis. I think your problem are you talking to the head. You should try talking to the network tail. As the old folk say, “Tail never flail.” I do my thesis at Florida Go Gata State on coin flopping and I determine that tail have a 70 percent chance of succeed. I think this cause me to go broke betting coin flop in the Super Game. And now I in gambler anonimals with Mike King, Tom Junior, and Carol Stone, but please do not repeated the name because it anonimals.

Reilly: Emmitt, my New Daddy once tried to sign me up for Mama’s Boys Anonymous, and in the first meeting they told me that I need to work on making my own macaroni and cheese even though I’m only 73 years old. Can you believe the nerve of these fascists!?

Tollefson: Reilly, whoever told you this deserves to be hanged by their nuts. No man should ever make his own macaroni and cheese. Any real man captures a woman, locks her in the cellar until she’s willing to do what she’s told, and then has her make macaroni and cheese for you while naked.

Reilly: Tolly, the only flaw in this plan is that I would have to look at a woman naked, which would only get me grounded and have my Nick Foles bobbleheads taken away from me by Mother. I’d be grounded for years because of this stupid woman! Speaking of stupid woman, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. According to our studio playoff expert, the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants both have a 93.09 percent chance of making the playoffs, and believe me, I’ve double checked his math because I take my job very seriously. We’re now joined by another world leader. This is a woman for a change, and she’s looking at me as if she wants to kill me. Ma’am, what gives?

Hillary Clinton: Thank you, thank you, it’s great for you to be with me, thank you, of course, you’re speaking to the rightful president who won 2016, but Russia and Macedonia interfered with the election, otherwise I would have won easily. And yes, football games should be held in this country because that’s what my handlers told me to say. Oh, and let me please note that I noticed that we do have an African American broadcaster here tonight, so I wanted to announce that I brought watermelon and fried chicken with me in my purse. I carry these items around with me all the time so people can know that I, as a white woman, and rightful president, can fully understand the plight of the African American.

Charissa Thompson: Did you say something about a flight? I know, girlfriend, I can’t wait to get out of here. This is so boring.

Hillary Clinton: Did you just refer to me as boring? I, Hillary Clinton, defender of all minorities, will never be called boring. That’s it! THAT’S IT! You’ll see if you make it out of this night alive, Charissa! You’ll be another name added to the list! REEEEEEEE!!!

Reilly: Hillary, why don’t you have any macaroni and cheese in your bag for me? It’s really not fair that you don’t. Camel Toe Harry, can you make me some macaroni and cheese?

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. In my middle-class family, we did not have macaroni and cheese. That’s how middle class we were. My middle-class father would only be able to provide caviar and lobster and Kobe beef for us. Imagine the disappointment I had when I didn’t get Michael Jordan beef. We had to settle for Kobe beef, but I never complained. And now, this middle-class girl is on her way to the presidency. She’s also on her way to Kevin Reilly’s bed because he knows all of these network heads. Kevin Reilly, how about we go to the hotel across the street and let me ride you all the way to the top?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala is finally acknowledging that not only was she poor in real life, but she also has poor character because only a total loser and a total disgrace would eat caviar, lobster and Kobe Beef, which is the worst food anyone has ever eaten or will eat, or so I’ve been told, but there’s no doubt that Trump eats the best food, which is the finest burgers and the finest French fries and those beautiful, golden arches, those big, beautiful golden arches, known as McDonald’s, which is a place Trump worked one time, Trump did better than the regular workers making the burgers and the fries, and the Chicken McNuggets, Trump did those better than anyone has ever done, or will ever do, and everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU MAY BE THE SECOND-BEST MCDONALD’S WORKER OF ALL TIME, BUT NOT THE BEST BECAUSE MY SECOND COUSIN, A WATER BALLOON WHO BECOMES A FIRE BALLOON WITH PICKLES FOR ARMS AND PHONE BOOTHS FOR FEET ON FULL MOONS, IS THE BEST MCDONALD’S WORKER OF ALL TIME.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, can you please tell Camel Toe Harry that I don’t want to have sexual- New Daddy, why are you dressed in a panda bear costume?

Jay Cutler: Do I sense sexual harassment in the workplace? Who lives in the east neath the willow tree? Sexual harassment, panda.

Reilly: No way, New Daddy is Sexual Harassment Panda!? So cool!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about the Island of Misfit Mascots, Kevin. You started with Sexual Harassment Panda, Kevin. How about Willy the “Don’t Stare Directly at the Sun” Worm? Care to share about the Happy the “Don’t Do Stuff That Might Irritate Your Inner Ear” Badger? Let’s talk about Jimmy the “Don’t Hold ono a Large Magnet While Someone Else Uses a Fan Nearby” Falcon, Kevin. We can get to Oinky the “Run Around with Scissors” Pig, Kevin, because you remind me of that as a piggy who oinks, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, THE JOKE IS ONCE AGAIN ON YOU BECAUSE YOU’RE THE ONE WHO LOOKS LIKE A PIG, AND YOU’RE JUST JEALOUS THAT NEW DADDY IS A FAMOUS MASCOT, SO SUCK IT, CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back after this!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have major defensive problems, but their offense can score on anyone. Having said that, it’ll be more difficult than usual versus Minnesota because the offense is based so much on the running game. The Vikings are stout versus the run.

Despite the Lions not being able to get much out of Jahmyr Gibbs, they’ll be able to score on Minnesota. The Vikings have issues in their secondary, particularly against slot receivers and tight ends. This is where Jared Goff attacks, as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta figure to thrive.

The Vikings will be doing everything in their power to rattle Goff. That’ll be difficult to do. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, but Goff is excellent versus the blitz. He has 13 touchdowns and only four interceptions when blitzed this year.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: As mentioned, the Lions have big problems stopping opposing offenses right now. Their defense has been ravaged by injuries, and they’ve looked utterly poor in two of their previous three games against the Bills and 49ers. The Buffalo outcome was fairly predictable, but it was shocking how bad Detroit’s defense was against a 49ers team missing three offensive linemen.

Brock Purdy was nearly flawless against the Lions on Monday night until the end of the third quarter. Sam Darnold was also stellar this past week, so he should be able to pick up where Purdy left off against this Detroit defense. Darnold’s weaponry is even better than what Purdy possesses.

The weakness of the Minnesota offense continues to be the left tackle situation, as Christian Darrisaw’s absence will play a factor at some point. However, that doesn’t appear to be this week, as Detroit’s pass rush has diminished by all of the injuries to the front seven.

RECAP: I would have been on the Lions, no questions asked, a week ago. Now, I’m not so sure. Detroit’s defense has taken such a hit by all the injuries. Not being able to stop the Bills was one thing, but Detroit’s inability to keep Purdy in check was another.

I’ve downgraded the Lions from Group A to Group B. If they were still in Group A, I would have made this line between -4.5 and -5.5. With the Lions in Group, a spread of -2 or so makes sense.

Because we’re getting a +3, I’m inclined to pick the Vikings. It’s close though; if this spread were -2.5 or less, I think I’d side with the Lions, so I can’t say I’m very confident in this pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Lions have been beaten down, but they’ve at least gotten some good news by designating Alex Anzalone to return from injured reserve. He may not play this week, but it’s great that he’s almost ready to suit up again.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t know if Alex Anzalone will return. That’s the only injury we’re really waiting on at the moment.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Jalen Nailor just had a big game, and he could enjoy another one. The Lions are very weak to slot receivers, so it’s no surprise that Nailor caught four passes for 76 yards in the first meeting. Think he can eclipse his 15.5-yard prop? The best number is over 15.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw in the Nailor receiving yards prop into a parlay with Aaron Jones over 18.5 receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 32.5 receiving yards, and Amon-Ra St. Brown over 79.5 receiving yards. Both teams have issues with surrendering receiving yardage to opposing running backs. Meanwhile, St. Brown’s number is very low; he topped 100 yards in the prior meeting. This $25 parlay pays $262.74 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps haven’t come in on a side yet. We’ll see if that happens prior to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We’ve seen some sharp money come in on the Vikings in the final hours. There are no regular +3 -110 lines available. The best Minnesota line is +3 -115 at BetMGM and ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 59% (261,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Vikings have won 9 of the last 14 meetings (Lions won last 4 meetings).

Vikings are 12-30 ATS in their road finale since 1980.

Opening Line: Lions -2.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.