NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2024): 7-8-1 (+$310)
2024 NFL Picks: 124-117-10 (-$2,900)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: This game would have been a lot of fun had the Browns not made it clear that their intention is to tank. They did so by benching Jameis Winston. To be fair, Winston had a horrible game against the Chiefs where he was guilty of many turnovers, but Winston at least gives the Cleveland receivers a chance to post great stats. The pick-sixes are part of the package. Think of it as more of a feature than a bug.

The Browns, however, plagiarized the Giants’ strategy by benching their best quarterback in favor of the third-string scrub. Dorian Thompson-Robinson had some nice scrambles against the Bengals, but that was about it. He was very fortunate that several of his passes weren’t picked, as he seldom gave his team a chance of scoring.

Thompson-Robinson will have to do everything himself in this game. The Browns won’t be able to run the ball with Jerome Ford against one of the top rush defenses in the NFL.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s amazing what a difference a week can make. Tua Tagovailoa was dreadful against the Texans because his backup offensive tackles couldn’t block Houston’s dynamic edge rush. Things were completely different last week, as Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm returned to action. Tagovailoa had way more time as a consequence.

Assuming the tackles haven’t suffered any sort of setback, Tagovailoa should continue to thrive in this matchup. Armstead is one of the very few tackles in the NFL who can somewhat keep Myles Garrett at bay, so being able to neutralize the All-Pro edge rusher will be crucial.

Like the Browns, the Dolphins won’t be able to run very much. However, De’Von Achane will generate plenty of production as a receiver out of the backfield. The Browns are in the upper half of the NFL as far as missing tackles is concerned, so Achane and the other Dolphin play-makers, who thrive so much after the catch, will continue to pick up chunks of yardage.

RECAP: When in doubt, use the Dolphins rule. Miami beats good teams and loses to bad teams. That’s all they do.

Do I need to tell you under which category the Browns fall? Cleveland was at least competitive with Winston under center, but the team is clearly tanking with Thompson-Robinson.

We faded the Browns for a huge play last week, and we will do so again, provided that the Dolphins are motivated. If they are, I love them this week. I wish they were coming off a loss to make the spot more appealing, but they shouldn’t have trouble obliterating yet another bad team.

The Dolphins will be motivated if one of the Broncos or Chargers lose on Saturday. If both win, the Dolphins will be eliminated from the playoffs, and if they are, I will not be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re still waiting on to see if the Broncos and/or Chargers end up losing. We’ll have a better upgrade on Saturday.

PLAYER PROPS: I like Jonnu Smith’s over prop, but we need to make sure Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and motivated. I may add this prop on Sunday afternoon.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re now waiting on two things. One, the Broncos/Chargers results. Two, Tua Tagovailoa is questionable with a hip injury. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps took the Browns at +3.5. Yeah, good luck with that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Not only is Tua Tagovailoa out; Jaylen Waddle is sidelined as well. The sharps bet the Browns at +3.5, but not +3. I have no interest in this game. The best line is -3 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Browns are tanking. The Dolphins are playing for a postseason spot if one of the Broncos or Chargers lose.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.

Computer Model: Dolphins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

I’m surprised there’s not more money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 77% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Rain, 54 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers were wise to rest Josh Jacobs in the second half of the Monday night game. There was no reason to run him into the ground, given that they had such a big lead over the inept Saints. Thus, it’ll help that he’ll have fresh legs in this contest despite being on a short work week.

Jacobs will need all the help he can get because the Vikings have maintained a dominant rush defense this year. They did allow more yards on the ground than expected to the Seahawks, but there’s a chance that regresses to the mean this week. That said, Jacobs is one of a few running backs in the NFL who can overcome a difficult matchup, given that he recently did so versus the Lions.

Still, “No Cookie” Jordan Love will have to do a lot in this game, so it’s important to look at how he does against the blitz because the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Love’s numbers are worse when blitzed, but not substantially. His completion percentage drops by three points, which is not a big deal. His YPA is 1.3 worse, but it’s still a 7.4, which is rather good. Love may not have his deep threat – we bet Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop, so he got hurt, oF cOuRsE – but he still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, and Minnesota’s secondary hasn’t been very good in the second half of the season.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Both quarterbacks figure to be busy in this game. Aaron Jones will want his revenge, but it’ll be difficult for him to obtain it because the Packers are even better against the run than they are versus the pass.

It’ll be up to Sam Darnold to beat a top-tier team, which is something that he hasn’t done since Christian Darrisaw’s injury. The Packers have a quality pass rush, which generates a good amount of pressure despite seldom blitzing. Darnold will feel it from the Green Bay front seven with Darrisaw no longer protecting him, and given that he’ll have to operate in long-yardage situations, he could be forced into a turnover or two.

Then again, Darnold has plenty of talent at his disposal. The Packers are weak against tight ends, so Darnold figures to have success targeting T.J. Hockenson. We’ll also have to see if Jaire Alexander can return from his extended absence; otherwise, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will be difficult to defend.

RECAP: We have a rare instance here where a Group A team is an underdog to a non-Group A team. I wondered how this dynamic fared this year. Group A teams are 5-2 against the spread in this situation. It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense that they would fare well.

Granted, we’re only getting one point with the Packers, but at least they’re not favored. They should be, according to both my numbers and EPA. Those projected spreads -2 and -3.5, respectively, so I love the value we’re getting with Green Bay.

It’s not often you can get good value with the superior team in a matchup, but when you do, you have to take advantage of it. And yes, the Packers are the superior team. All but one of Minnesota’s victories since Darrisaw’s injury have come against Group C teams or worse. The lone exception was last week’s three-point win at Seattle, but the Group B Seahawks outgained the Vikings in both total net yards and yards per play.

The only disadvantage the Packers have in this game is one fewer day of rest, but I believe they can overcome that and win this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Packers. I can’t say I’m surprised because I love Green Bay this week.

PLAYER PROPS: We whiffed on T.J. Hockenson last week, but we’ll try him again. Hockenson looks great against a Green Bay defense that is soft against tight ends. The best number is over 42.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: There aren’t major injuries worth noting. The Packers will be down a couple of players, but they don’t have any cluster injuries. I still love Green Bay.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Packers. As of Sunday morning, the sharps haven’t taken a side in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Watson is out, of course. The Packers are getting sharp action, which is nice to see. They’re now favored in some sportsbooks, but you can still get +1 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Slight lean on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 58% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Teams have split the past 4 years.

Packers are 67-43 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 58-39 ATS in the regular season.

Vikings are 48-38 ATS at home since 2014 (17-23 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -1.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much better the Falcons looked with Michael Penix Jr. Of course, it helped that Penix didn’t throw interceptions at a clip in which he had nine compared to just one touchdown in five games. He threw a pick versus the Giants, but it wasn’t his fault, as Kyle Pitts juggled the ball, which popped into the arms of a defender.

The fact that Penix won’t make constant mistakes is a big deal in this game because the Falcons will be able to lean on Bijan Robinson. The Redskins have a run-funnel defense that has been gashed by most backs this year. Saquon Barkley did so last week, and Robinson will be next.

Robinson’s great running will open up opportunities for Penix. Washington’s secondary has improved with Marshon Lattimore, but Penix has two talented receivers at his disposal. There’s also Pitts, but he has regressed beyond belief, so I wouldn’t expect him to do much despite the positive matchup.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels had a heroic performance on Sunday. Sure, he was able to win because Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion, but he was able to overcome five turnovers and engineer a tremendous game-winning drive at the end.

Daniels would’ve had a dream matchup if this were the same Falcons defense from Week 11 and prior. However, something changed during the Week 12 bye week because Atlanta’s pass rush has exploded since then. The Falcons have generated so much pressure on the quarterback in the past four weeks that they are now the No. 1 EPA defense in the past month. And yes, they’ve battled some sketchy offenses like the Giants and Raiders, but they’ve also taken on the Vikings and Chargers.

Daniels will see lots of pressure, and he won’t really be able to rely on Brian Robinson Jr. because the Falcons are third against the run. There are issues with Atlanta’s secondary, but Daniels has only one reliable receiver at his disposal.

RECAP: I regret not betting the Falcons last week. They have a lot of talent on their team, and their defense has improved by leaps and bounds since the bye. The problem was Cousins, who was so injured that he threw one touchdown and nine interceptions in his final five games.

Penix had to be better by default, and he was. He was much better, even though the stats aren’t overly impressive. He gives the Falcons a good chance to win the division, which would require a victory here if the Buccaneers take care of business against the Panthers.

I like the matchup that Bijan Robinson has against Washington’s run defense. Meanwhile, the Redskins are coming off a huge upset victory over the Eagles, so they’re not in the best spot.

I was hoping for a much better number than +4 because of the Redskins’ victory last week. I imagine it wasn’t set higher despite the favorable public sentiment on the Redskins because that would invite a ton of sharp money on the Falcons. I’m still willing to take them at +4, though I don’t really see this as a great betting opportunity.

One thing to keep in mind is that this game will be meaningless for the Redskins if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers in the 1 o’clock slate. They’ll clinch playoff berth, so they could decide to sit their starters if that occurs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to add to this game, as it’s one of the most perplexing matchups to handicap this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve done a 180 on this game after talking to both Evan and Andy on our nightly show. The Redskins are the better team with added motivation because they can clinch playoff berth with a win. The only way this game won’t matter is if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers, which is unlikely to happen.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Brian Robinson has cleared 12.5 receiving yards in both games since the bye. I like him here against the Falcons, who allow lots of receiving yardage to opposing running backs. The best number is over 12.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

We’re going to FanDuel for our same-game parlay because they have a 25-percent profit boost right now. We’re going to pair Robinson’s receiving yards (13.5) with Zach Ertz under 33.5 receiving yards, Bijan Robinson over 81.5 rushing yards, and Darnell Mooney under 47.5 receiving yards. I’m more than happy to take non-running backs under receiving because of the projected poor weather. The Falcons have been great versus tight ends since the bye anyway. Mooney, as a deep threat, seems to be projected poorly in the wind and rain. I like Bijan Robinson to go over his rushing prop because of the great matchup. This $25 parlay pays $304.80 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It’s looking like there’s going to be bad weather in this game. That would explain the sharp money coming in on the underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Falcons, taking this line down from +4 to +3.5. I still like the Redskins for a couple of units. The best line is -3.5 +100 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Redskins are coming off a last-second victory against the Eagles. This game could also mean nothing.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

People are excited to bet the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 70% (180,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Redskins are 13-28 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 58 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the gays, where tonight the Detroit Tigers take on the San Francisco Gay Giants. Guys, Mother made me put on steel underwear before leaving for San Francisco because she said the gays will try to corrupt me and ravage my bunghole, even more so than demonic women. No gays have tried to ravage my bunghole, but I really have to go to the bathroom. For someone who is definitely the big kahuna around here, I don’t feel very much in charge.

Emmitt: Thanks, Cagnazzo. I find it real interesting that you say you has steel underwear covering your private sexual. When I was a student in the University of Florida Go Gata State, a bunch of guy say that we should breaked into the women dorm and steal their underwear. I did not want to risked getting into trouble and kick off the football so I decided not to parktake in these escapade. Plus, I had to study for my math test, which was real difficulty because they ask the question one plus one on the test, and I do not knowed if the answer are two, eleven, or one one. It good thing I did not parktake in the steal of underwear because one of my friend got shoot and kill when this happen.

Reilly: Emmitt, I don’t know why any guy would have any interest in women’s underwear. Mother sometimes makes me fold her underwear after she does the laundry, and there are sometimes poop stains on them.

Tollefson: Reilly, you know nothing about women. In addition to my collection of female slaves, I also have a collection of women’s underwear. I sneak into gyms and steal them from various lockers. It’s quite nice. I’d say my collection is worth about $716,000.

Reilly: Tolly, I had no idea you could sell women’s underwear. Maybe I’ll sell some of Mother’s. I hope the ones with the biggest poop stains can go for a lot. Speaking of poop stains, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. The Lions injuries continue to add up. Jared Goff stepped in a mouse trap and is out for five months, while Jahmyr Gibbs will be out for eight weeks after being anally probed by aliens. This is a great report that I only I could have uncovered. But now, we are now joined by someone who looks like he spends too much time on social media.

Elon Musk: The network heads have been impressed by my work in DOGE, so they hired me to make this broadcast more efficient. Charissa, I’m sad to say you’re the first to go because your reports are even less factual than Reuters, which let’s face it, is not factual at all.

Charissa Thompson: Huh? Wait, which country do you run again? I lost interest in what you were saying when you opened your mouth. Please continue this interview, and I’ll nod my head in agreement even though I’m not listening.

Elon Musk: I am basically running America right now. Charissa, we will have to let you go. Same with Don Tollefson, Emmitt Smith, and Jay Cutler. We don’t pay Kamala and Donald Trump, so they can stay. Kevin Reilly, you’ll be more efficient if you stop listening to your mother, and here, by the way, is a magical key I invented to unlock your steel underwear. And we need more Ron Wolfley for the memes.

Reilly: Oh no, no, no, no, you’re not getting me, you sly fox. If I unlock my steel underwear, the next thing that’ll happen is that a bunch of gay guys will rush to ravage my bunghole. No thank you! Camel Toe Harry, can you talk some sense into this Enron Musk guy so that he doesn’t lead to my bunghole being ravaged?

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family, and I’ve been unburdened by what has been. When I was growing up in this middle-class family, my mother used to always say that if you fall off a coconut tree, you betttter get backkk up. Haha, getttt baccclkkck up, get it? Ha HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAA. Getttttting bbbbback up, HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAA. Oh maanann ththe allcochooll isss reallyl kcickkinngg iinnn woooo lleeett’ss alll hhaavavveee ssseexxxx toooo impprprovve oourur jooobbb ssttattuuss woooo!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, if anyone is going to improve their job status by having sex, it’s not going to be you because you’ve been worn out like an old shoe, and not just an old shoe, the oldest shoe anyone has ever seen, it’s so old that it predates all shoes, that’s how old of a shoe you are, and you’re the opposite of Trump, who improves his job status all the time with sex because Trump is the ultimate sex beast, no one has ever seen anything like it, and it’s so extreme that Trump needs steel underwear like that Kevin Reilly beauty has, but Trump’s steel underwear is the strongest anyone has ever seen, frankly, it’s much stronger than Kevin Reilly’s steel underwear or anyone else’s steel underwear because Trump needs it more than anyone, especially that total loser and total disgrace Kamala, who doesn’t need steel underwear because she has a steel brain, which means she has no brain at all, because it was stolen, just like the 2020 election was stolen, in fact it was so stolen that frankly, no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, WITH ALL DUE RESPECT, MY FRIEND, WHO IS ACTUALLY STEEL UNDERWEAR, IS THE STRONGEST STEEL UNDERWEAR YOU’LL SEE BECAUSE HE HAS DORITOS FOR LEGS AND PORKCHOPS FOR ARMS.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, can you please get rid of Elong Musk guy because he said we should be fired because we’re not efficient?

Jay Cutler: Meh, he’s probably right.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, you’re support to fight for our jobs! Who’s going to make money so I can buy Nick Foles bobblehead dolls and you can put food on the dinner table?

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about dinner, Kevin. Let’s discuss some possible dinners, Kevin. We can begin with spaghetti, Kevin. Someone mentioned porkchops, Kevin, which is another dinner, Kevin. What do you think about ribs, Kevin? Then there’s rice, Kevin, and you can combine rice with almost anything, Kevin. Why not chat about mashed potatoes, Kevin? Let’s segue to salad, Kevin. What do you think about pizza, Kevin? Then there’s macaroni and cheese, Kevin. And finally there’s chicken, Kevin, which can be used to describe, you, Kevin, because you’re a chicken, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, THE JOKE IS ON YOU BECAUSE I AM RUBBER YOU ARE GLUE WHATEVER COMES BACK TO ME, I MEAN BOUNCES OFF ME COMES BACK AND STICKS TO YOU SO YOU’RE THE CHICKEN, YOU LOSER! We’ll be back after this!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions bounced back very well from their loss to the Bills. They dismantled the Bears despite missing multiple starters. They even had some fun with a hilarious trick play where Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs pretended that they fumbled the snap.

Speaking of Gibbs, he projects extremely well in this contest. De’Von Achane just had his best rushing performance of the year against this beleaguered San Francisco rush defense that has missed countless tackles all year. With David Montgomery out, the Lions swapped their goal-line hammer with a younger player who can provide more explosive plays.

The Lions will get explosive plays from their passing attack as well. The 49ers have struggled against slot receivers and tight ends this year, and that’s where Detroit primarily attacks.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers won’t have much of a chance of matching Detroit’s point total in this game. Brock Purdy needs a strong rushing attack to be successful, especially with the other injuries on this side of the ball. He’s certainly not getting that with Patrick Taylor.

Perhaps Isaac Guerendo will be able to return this week, but it won’t matter much in this matchup. The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, so Guerendo won’t find much running room.

The 49ers will have some success moving the ball, primarily with George Kittle. The Lions are weaker to tight ends, so Kittle should perform well. However, if Trent Williams is out again – and there’s no reason to rush him back now – the 49ers will have problems sustaining consistent drives.

RECAP: It may seem strange that this line is -3.5. I made this spread -5.5, but was thinking I was shy, so I thought -6 was possible. Instead, the Lions are favored by a field goal and a hook over the dead 49ers.

I imagine that the sportsbooks refrained from making this line higher because this game may not matter if the Vikings win. If Minnesota prevails, the division and No. 1 seed will come down to next week’s game against Minnesota, no matter what happens in this contest. If the Vikings win, I imagine this line will fall because the Lions may end up resting their starters.

Conversely, if the Vikings lose to the Packers, the Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed with a victory in this contest. I imagine the spread will also change if that happens. Perhaps it’ll move to the -5.5 or -6 I envisioned.

Because I like the Packers, I’m going to side with Detroit. The Lions will be hyped up to win the No. 1 seed and avenge their playoff loss to the 49ers. I’ll reevaluate Monday afternoon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Evan talked me into believing that the Lions’ spot is so much better than I anticipated. I will probably be betting Detroit.

SATURDAY NOTES: Two developments have made me love the Lions. First, Dan Campbell said his team will take this game seriously. I believe Campbell, who is often truthful. This is a revenge game for Detroit, after all. Second, the 49ers’ offensive line is a complete disaster with cluster injuries. This is a huge play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may lock in this pick on Sunday night.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: This is a bit later than usual, but I’ve been waiting on an announcement regarding Detroit’s starters. Dan Campbell said that his team would go all out versus the 49ers, but that was before the Green Bay-Minnesota result. I don’t think Campbell would lie, and he seems like the sort of coach who would play everyone. If he does, I’ll have five units on the Lions. As for player props and the same-game parlay, I’ll post that in the 7 o’clock hour once we get some clarity on what the Lions will do. If the Lions start everyone, Jahmyr Gibbs over rushing yards will be the play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have a feeling that the Lions will play their starters in the first half and then pull them in the third quarter. This is what the sharps believe, as they’ve betting Detroit first half. The best line for the game is -4 -113 at BetRivers, and the best first-half line is -2.5 -132, also at BetRivers. This will be a five-unit wager. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

Because the Lions may bench their starters at some point, I regrettably can’t give you a player prop bet or a same-game parlay. Again, Jahmyr Gibbs is the way to go if you believe the Lions will play their starters the entire game, and I’d parlay that with Sam LaPorta over receiving yards, Deebo Samuel over receiving yards, and Isaac Gurendo under rushing yards.

The Motivation. Edge: TBA.

This game won’t matter if the Vikings beat the Packers.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Tons of money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 93% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Patchy frost, 52 degrees. Light wind.