2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Colts at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It would have been nice had Jonathan Taylor not dropped the ball shy of the goal line at Denver. We lost $300 plus the vig because of it, but at least Taylor made amends for it last week while scoring three touchdowns against the Titans. Taylor was tremendous and awarded anyone who drafted him in best ball.

Taylor should be able to carry his fantasy owners to the championship this week. The Giants are weak against the run, so Taylor will bulldoze through their defense. The Giants will also have to worry about Anthony Richardson’s runs as well.

Richardson’s passing is a different story. Richardson is woefully inaccurate, so New York’s secondary won’t be very threatened despite Josh Downs’ return last week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Colts are great at running the ball, they’re also very weak to ground attacks. The Titans could have exposed this if Mason Rudolph hadn’t been so busy throwing interceptions, which put the team into a 31-7 hole at the beginning of the third quarter.

The Giants will attempt to exploit this liability, but they may have the same issues that the Titans did with Rudolph. Drew Lock was a disaster last week, heaving two pick-sixes against the Falcons. Lock could do the same thing this week, especially if the Colts are able to get back top cornerback JuJu Brents from injury.

To be fair to Lock, he doesn’t have much of a chance. His offensive line is in shambles. The Colts are in the middle of the pack in pressure rate, so they’ll be able to rattle Lock.

RECAP: This spread is absurd. The Colts were -6.5 on the advance line, and now they’ve moved across the No. 2 key number of seven to -8. All because of two results from last week.

The Colts have not beaten a team by more than eight all year, so who are they to be favored by eight on the road against anyone? Look, I get it. The Giants are horrible. And they’re tanking. However, we’ve seen them fight to keep some games close. They got the back-door touchdown against the Saints, for example. They also kept the Dallas result to seven on Thanksgiving.

Don’t get me wrong, though. I’m not advocating for a bet on the Giants because they’re the worst team in the NFL. They could easily give the Colts two free touchdowns like they did to Atlanta last week. However, I think betting on the Colts at -8 is a bad move. This is a stay-away for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wasn’t expecting sharp money on the Giants, but we got some to move the line down from +8 to +7.5. I still have no desire to bet them.

PLAYER PROPS: Michael Pittman Jr.’s receiving yards prop makes no sense. He’s gone over it (41.5) in four of his previous five games, and that was with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. He could clear this number in the first half. The best number is over 41.5 -113 at Caesars. I’m also going to ladder this. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: And now we know why there was sharp money on the Giants. Anthony Richardson is out. While Joe Flacco is theoretically safer with the ball, he also has less upside. This situation is not enough for me to bet the Giants, especially when the Giants, who have cluster injuries in the interior of the offensive line, may not have Malik Nabers available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Anthony Richardson has been officially ruled out. The sharps bet the Giants at +8, but haven’t touched them at +7.5. The best line is +7.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -6.5.

Computer Model: Colts -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 77% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Opening Line: Colts -6.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Chance of rain, 54 degrees. Light wind.