2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Panthers at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers were able to move the chains against the Cowboys, so their scoring unit isn’t primarily to blame for the loss. Then again, Mike Evans was in and out of the lineup in the fourth quarter because he got banged up, of course.

Still, the Buccaneers accumulated 410 net yards and 5.9 yards per play, mostly via the run. They moved the chains so well via their running backs, primarily with Bucky Irving. The talented rookie figures to have another big game, given that Carolina is woeful against ground attacks.

The Panthers are better at stopping the pass, solely because of their improved pass rush. They’ve been able to get to the quarterback well since D.J. Wonnum’s return from injury. However, they still have issues against No. 1 receivers, so Evans’ health will be crucial in a matchup that he’s dominated over the years.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s insane that Bryce Young had the highest quarterback rating in the NFL last week. It’s almost as if we’ve fallen asleep and awakened in some bizarre parallel universe. Arizona’s defense couldn’t stop the beleaguered Young.

Young should continue to perform well. He just did well in this matchup recently, taking the Buccaneers to overtime. Plus, Tampa Bay just had issues keeping Cooper Rush from torching them last week. Rush went up and down the field on the Buccaneers, so why wouldn’t Young be able to do the same?

The one thing the Buccaneers do well on this side of the ball is clamp down on the run. Young was able to lean on Chuba Hubbard during the upset victory over the Cardinals, but that won’t be an option this Sunday.

RECAP: I don’t have a good read on the Buccaneers at all. I thought they were a Group C team this entire time, but then they absolutely dismantled the Chargers. I thought about upgrading them to Group B with Jalen McMillan coming on as a viable replacement for Chris Godwin, but then they lost to the Cowboys on Sunday night.

If the Buccaneers are a Group C team – i.e. average – then this spread is way too high because an average team should not be favored by eight points over a Group D (below average) team. However, if the Buccaneers are a Group B team, then you could argue that this spread is correct, or even a bit too low.

I will say this: The motivational angle clearly favors the Buccaneers. They’re coming off a loss on national TV, so they’re bound to play better this week. Meanwhile, the Panthers are coming off a win, which is a fade signal because bad teams struggle to sustain success.

I’m going to side with the Buccaneers despite this unappealing point spread. I’m not sure how much I’ll be betting on them just yet, but I do like that they’re the superior team with the motivational advantage.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams had two players each miss practice on Wednesday will illnesses. Two usually isn’t a concern for me, but once we start getting into three or more, that’s when I get worried about the flu spreading around the locker room. Stay tuned for further updates.

PLAYER PROPS: The Panthers were already horrible against the run, and now they’re dealing with the flu. Tackling will be an issue against the excellent Bucky Irving. The best number is over 80.5 rushing yards -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals had the flu last week, and it appears as though the Panthers caught it from them. Five Carolina players have reported illnesses. Meanwhile, some very impactful players will be sidelined like Taylor Moton, Jaycee Horn, and Josey Jewell. Others are questionable like D.J. Wonnum and Damien Lewis. The Panthers are a mess, so I like the Buccaneers to cover, especially with the motivational angle favoring them. Tampa Bay has better injury news this week with Jordan Whitehead likely to play.

LOCKED IN: I said on the show that I wanted to lock in the Buccaneers. They’ve just gone from -8 to -9, and it’s even -9.5 in some books. I fear that the line may go to -10 by kickoff. You can still get -9 -110 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers are dealing with rough injuries, as Taylor Moton, Josey Jewell, and Jaycee Horn are all out. On top of that, they’re dealing with the flu. The sharps are on the Buccaneers, so it’s a good thing we locked in -9 because this line is -10 everywhere. The best line is the standard -10 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m also going to bet the alt line. I’m on the Buccaneers -19.5 +285, found at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Panthers are a bad team coming off a win. The Buccaneers lost on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -8.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 56% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 11 the last 13 meetings.

Road Team is 141-99 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 44-74 ATS at home in the previous 118 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -8.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 74 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.