2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Falcons at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much better the Falcons looked with Michael Penix Jr. Of course, it helped that Penix didn’t throw interceptions at a clip in which he had nine compared to just one touchdown in five games. He threw a pick versus the Giants, but it wasn’t his fault, as Kyle Pitts juggled the ball, which popped into the arms of a defender.

The fact that Penix won’t make constant mistakes is a big deal in this game because the Falcons will be able to lean on Bijan Robinson. The Redskins have a run-funnel defense that has been gashed by most backs this year. Saquon Barkley did so last week, and Robinson will be next.

Robinson’s great running will open up opportunities for Penix. Washington’s secondary has improved with Marshon Lattimore, but Penix has two talented receivers at his disposal. There’s also Pitts, but he has regressed beyond belief, so I wouldn’t expect him to do much despite the positive matchup.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels had a heroic performance on Sunday. Sure, he was able to win because Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion, but he was able to overcome five turnovers and engineer a tremendous game-winning drive at the end.

Daniels would’ve had a dream matchup if this were the same Falcons defense from Week 11 and prior. However, something changed during the Week 12 bye week because Atlanta’s pass rush has exploded since then. The Falcons have generated so much pressure on the quarterback in the past four weeks that they are now the No. 1 EPA defense in the past month. And yes, they’ve battled some sketchy offenses like the Giants and Raiders, but they’ve also taken on the Vikings and Chargers.

Daniels will see lots of pressure, and he won’t really be able to rely on Brian Robinson Jr. because the Falcons are third against the run. There are issues with Atlanta’s secondary, but Daniels has only one reliable receiver at his disposal.

RECAP: I regret not betting the Falcons last week. They have a lot of talent on their team, and their defense has improved by leaps and bounds since the bye. The problem was Cousins, who was so injured that he threw one touchdown and nine interceptions in his final five games.

Penix had to be better by default, and he was. He was much better, even though the stats aren’t overly impressive. He gives the Falcons a good chance to win the division, which would require a victory here if the Buccaneers take care of business against the Panthers.

I like the matchup that Bijan Robinson has against Washington’s run defense. Meanwhile, the Redskins are coming off a huge upset victory over the Eagles, so they’re not in the best spot.

I was hoping for a much better number than +4 because of the Redskins’ victory last week. I imagine it wasn’t set higher despite the favorable public sentiment on the Redskins because that would invite a ton of sharp money on the Falcons. I’m still willing to take them at +4, though I don’t really see this as a great betting opportunity.

One thing to keep in mind is that this game will be meaningless for the Redskins if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers in the 1 o’clock slate. They’ll clinch playoff berth, so they could decide to sit their starters if that occurs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to add to this game, as it’s one of the most perplexing matchups to handicap this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve done a 180 on this game after talking to both Evan and Andy on our nightly show. The Redskins are the better team with added motivation because they can clinch playoff berth with a win. The only way this game won’t matter is if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers, which is unlikely to happen.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Brian Robinson has cleared 12.5 receiving yards in both games since the bye. I like him here against the Falcons, who allow lots of receiving yardage to opposing running backs. The best number is over 12.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

We’re going to FanDuel for our same-game parlay because they have a 25-percent profit boost right now. We’re going to pair Robinson’s receiving yards (13.5) with Zach Ertz under 33.5 receiving yards, Bijan Robinson over 81.5 rushing yards, and Darnell Mooney under 47.5 receiving yards. I’m more than happy to take non-running backs under receiving because of the projected poor weather. The Falcons have been great versus tight ends since the bye anyway. Mooney, as a deep threat, seems to be projected poorly in the wind and rain. I like Bijan Robinson to go over his rushing prop because of the great matchup. This $25 parlay pays $304.80 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It’s looking like there’s going to be bad weather in this game. That would explain the sharp money coming in on the underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Falcons, taking this line down from +4 to +3.5. I still like the Redskins for a couple of units. The best line is -3.5 +100 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Redskins are coming off a last-second victory against the Eagles. This game could also mean nothing.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

People are excited to bet the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 70% (180,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Redskins are 13-28 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 58 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.