2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Chargers at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

We had an entertaining night on Twitter following the Packers-Saints game. I posted a link to the recap, citing, “Total domination, and Christian Watson gets hurt, of course.” We had Watson’s over receiving yards prop, so he naturally got hurt, of course, to ruin our bet. Just like Mike Evans got hurt as well on Sunday night, of course, because we’ve been running poorly with injury luck.

This didn’t sit too well with some weirdo named Tazim Wajed Wajed, who posted the following:

I later learned that this guy is somehow related to Christian Watson. I’m not sure if he’s his bad-touch uncle, or something, but he seems to be clueless on the situation. Before I discovered that this guy is somehow related to Watson, I quote tweeted him:

It’s silly of this Tazim guy to overreact without understanding the context. Anyone following my content knew that I had a play on Watson, and that I was understandably frustrated upon losing money. Tazim had no knowledge of this, so he assumed that I meant something else. He should have asked me what I meant by “of course,” but he reacted on instinct without considering the nuance.

I’m not sure why Tazim has a following, but he does. Stupid people latched on to what he said, as you can see here:

Surprise, surprise, a Ukrainian flag. I called these people the “retard brigade.” I received more of these:

It’s quite astonishing how many brainless idiots out there who are just following Tazim’s lead without considering context or nuance. It’s like moths to a flame. They are just reacting emotionally without thinking whatsoever.

By the way, a friend of mine recognized Ben Herbst as a classmate from his high school. Bill Cosby is an alumnus of my high school. I’d rather have Cosby as a fellow alumnus than that Herbst buffoon.

Here are a few interactions with some of these clowns. This is “Packing and Rolling:”

It’s now been 12-plus hours, and I’m still waiting to find out. When will I find out!?

Here is Mike Scanlan, who is very racist:

Mike Scanlan believes that as a white man, he is so superior to Native Americans that he can tell them how they’re supposed to think and feel. People like him are the worst.

Speaking of low-lifes, here’s someone who hates the mentally challenged:

Poor guy. Still hasn’t recovered from November.

Last one:

It’s crazy to me that these people didn’t once stop and think, “Hey, why did he write, ‘of course?’ What was he referring to? Maybe I should ask before getting mad for no reason.” Then again, these are simpletons whose IQ is, as posted, hovering around 60, so they are not capable of having such an inner monologue.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers had been sluggish offensively leading up to last week’s Thursday night affair. However, they bounced back with a strong performance, particularly in the second half. Even Gus Edwards looked good against Denver’s usually tough run defense.

The Patriots struggle to stop the run, which has to be music to Jim Harbaugh’s ears. Harbaugh would love to just hand the ball off to Edwards 40 times. I’m not extremely bullish on Edwards’ projection in this game because he’s not a good player, but there’s no denying how bad the Patriots are versus ground attacks.

Edwards’ running will obviously help Justin Herbert, who will be able to utilize a tremendous matchup in this game. The Patriots are woeful against slot receivers and tight ends. This is terrific for Ladd McConkey, who is healthy now. Will Dissly could return to take advantage of the other liability.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Chargers have also been weak against the run lately, but that has had to do with an injury. Denzel Perryman’s absence has been huge. Perryman is a stout run defender, so the Chargers will be thrilled if he returns, which is a strong possibility on an extended work week.

If the Chargers can improve against the run with Perryman’s potential return, it’s going to be very difficult for the Patriots to move the ball. Drake Maye has shown flashes this year, but that has mostly been in garbage time, a la Blake Bortles in 2015.

Maye has some major potential, but the biggest problem for him right now is pass protection. His offensive line is horrible. With that in mind, it’s not exactly ideal that he’ll be going up against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack in the penultimate game of his rookie season.

RECAP: How dumb is the NFL schedule-maker? Why would they put the Chargers on at 1 p.m.? If I’m the Chargers, I’m pretty pissed about this.

Luckily for the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh is excellent in these spots. Harbaugh is 9-1 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games, with the only loss being to the Steelers in Week 3 this year when Herbert left the game with an injury.

I like the Chargers to cover this spread. They’ve demonstrated that they can beat down lesser opponents. Against teams in Group D or Group F this year, the Chargers have wins by 12 (Raiders), 17 (Browns), 10 (Titans), 4 (Falcons), 23 (Panthers), and 18 (Broncos). Conversely, the Patriots have been walloped by the Group A and Group B teams they’ve battled, with the exception of the Bills last week. Aside from that game, they’ve lost by 17 (49ers), 6 (Rams), and 19 (Dolphins). The Patriots were able to keep the Bills game close because Buffalo was incredibly flat following its huge victory at Detroit.

The Chargers won’t cover this spread if they’re also flat, but given that they have a chance to clinch playoff berth with this victory, I think they’ll be motivated.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was wrong about Denzel Perryman. I thought he’d be able to play, but he missed practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. I thought he’d return after an extended time off, but apparently not.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Ladd McConkey already had a great matchup, and now New England’s starting slot cornerback is out. McConkey has exceeded 70 receiving yards in four of his previous five games. The best number is over 70.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel.

I’m going to put the McConkey over receiving yards prop in a parlay with Kayshon Boutte over 39.5 receiving yards, Antonio Gibson over 10.5 receiving yards, and Chargers -4.5. Boutte has been hot lately, and the Patriots should be playing from behind. Gibson should receive some checkdowns as a result. And I only like three player props with the Chargers running backs being unavailable at the moment, so I’m going to throw in the Chargers -4.5 line. This $25 parlay pays $255.35 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sucks that the Chargers won’t have Denzel Perryman, but I still like them this week. They’re getting a starting cornerback returning from injury (Cam Hart), and there’s a chance J.K. Dobbins will play. The Patriots, meanwhile, won’t have their starting center, which further degrades their horrible offensive line. They’ll also be missing their slot cornerback, so Ladd McConkey should have a great game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line was steamed up from -4 to -5.5 yesterday. I thought we’d be safe this morning, but apparently not. The sharps have slammed the Chargers over the past 48 hours, with this line now -6. The best line is -6 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Chargers will be angry about having to play early.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Lots of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 82% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 9-1 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Patriots are 44-28 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 40 degrees. Light wind.