2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Seahawks at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 41-35 ATS through 15 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -7

Bengals -9.5

Bills -14

Buccaneers -4

Rams -3

Eagles -4

The public won their top two plays, but were 3-3 overall. The public is now 44-38.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -3.5

Chargers -4

Seahawks -3.5

Only three publicly backed sides for now. We’ll get some more later in the week, I’m sure.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks put forth a valiant effort against the Vikings. They were down early, but managed to come back and eventually lead before losing at the end. While Geno Smith was picked twice, he made some amazing throws into Minnesota’s talented defense.

Smith will have an easier time in this game because he’ll be able to lean on the run. That wasn’t the case last week because the Vikings are stout when it comes to defending ground attacks. The Bears are poor at doing so, meaning Kenneth Walker and/or Zach Charbonnet will thrive.

Smith will be able to operate out of short-yardage situations. He’ll need the help because the Bears have quality defenders in their secondary. Chicago plays very well against slot receivers, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba has his work cut out for him.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears won’t have nearly as much success running the ball. D’Andre Swift has faced a number of tough matchups lately, and this is another one. Seattle struggled versus the run earlier in the season, but has been much better in that regard since Leonard Williams’ health improved.

Caleb Williams will once again have to do all the work with his receivers, which will mean more turnovers and mistakes. Williams was on a roll once Chicago fired his offensive coordinator, but has taken a big step backward following Matt Eberflus’ firing. This is because the interim offensive coordinator was promoted to interim head coach, leaving the Bears with no real offensive coordinator. They’ve made countless mistakes in the three games since.

The Seahawks just had issues defending Minnesota’s receivers, so I imagine Chicago’s wideouts will make some big plays. However, the Vikings didn’t make mistakes last week, and unless the Bears suddenly are coached better, they will commit some blunders to ruin drives and give Seattle some free points.

RECAP: I’m once again copy-pasting this paragraph from the prior capsule because it applies: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

There’s a debate as to whether or not this game means anything for the Seahawks. If you pop the results into the NFL playoff calculator – just do a Google search if you’re not familiar with it – you’ll see that the result of this contest has no bearing on whether or not the Seahawks win the division. What it comes down to is the Rams’ result versus the Cardinals. If the Rams beat the Cardinals, they will win the division. If the Rams lose, the Seahawks will win the division with a victory in Week 18, regardless of the outcome of this matchup.

I said that there’s a debate about the meaning of this game because there’s a tiny chance this game means something because of a strength-of-victory tie-breaker. These are just mere percentage points, so I don’t think that’s a huge selling point for the Seahawks to be motivated. They’re better off resting their starters and gearing up for Week 18.

This is a major bummer. I’d love to fade the Bears because they have an overwhelmed interim head coach and no offensive coordinator operating on a short work week, but this is not the time to do so because the Seahawks really have nothing at stake in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to change my pick because it seems as though there’s more of a chance this game means something to the Seahawks.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I was shocked to see that Zach Charbonnet’s rushing prop wasn’t in the 80s. Kenneth Walker is out, so Charbonnet will handle the entire workload. The Bears are horrible against the run, so Charbonnet looks like a great play. The best number is over 68.5 -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to parlay the Charbonnet over rushing prop with D.J. Moore over 55.5 receiving yards, Rome Odunze over 43.5 receiving yards, and Noah Fant over 30.5 receiving yards. We’ve seen how weak the Seahawks are to outside receivers, and Moore and Odunze get tons of targets. The Bears allow lots of production to tight ends. This $25 parlay pays $284.78 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Although I feel better about Seattle’s motivation after discussing it on Tuesday’s show, I’m still not completely sold on it. I would take them if I had to, which is what the sharps are doing. The pros have driven this line above -4 in most places. However, you can still get -4 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

This game means nothing to Seattle.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -9.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Most of the money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 76% (206,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Geno Smith is 3-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .