2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Raiders at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints looked absolutely terrible on Monday night. Spencer Rattler was horrible, turning the ball over on multiple occasions, including once on a rare trip into the red zone. With all of his top weapons sidelined, Rattler didn’t have much of a chance.

There’s a possibility Rattler will have at least one of Chris Olave or Marquez Valdes-Scantling back this week. Granted, the latter isn’t very good, but at least he’s a real player, unlike Kevin Austin or Jordan Mims, whoever the hell they are. Olave’s return would be huge, as it would give the Saints a legitimate chance to really attack the Raiders’ secondary.

Regardless, the Saints will not get shut out again. The Raiders, missing Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins and Malcolm Koonce, have issues on this side of the ball. They’re especially poor against tight ends, so Rattler figures to have success targeting Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders didn’t have much of a functional offense when everyone saw them play on prime time against the Falcons, but that changed last week in the wake of Aidan O’Connell’s return to action. O’Connell isn’t very good, but he’s substantially superior compared to Desmond Ridder.

O’Connell had better luck connecting with Brock Bowers, who just enjoyed a terrific game. Bowers figures to dominate once again, given that the Saints struggle against tight ends.

The Raiders will have some success running the ball, but it won’t be the same, dominant showing that the Packers had Monday night. Las Vegas’ rushing attack is obviously nowhere near as potent as Green Bay’s.

RECAP: It’s interesting that the Saints were -2.5 on the advance line, and now, because of the Raiders’ win over the Jaguars, and the shutout on Monday night, New Orleans is now a one-point underdog.

The line movement makes New Orleans appealing, as does the spot. The Saints were completely embarrassed on Monday night, so I’ll be surprised if they don’t bounce back with a better performance this week. Conversely, the Raiders are coming off a win. Bad teams have issues sustaining success, so this is definitely a time to fade Las Vegas.

I’m going to be on the Saints. I wish I had more confidence in them to make a larger wager than a two-unit bet, but I can’t place a lot of money on a Group F team, even if they’re battling another Group F team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alvin Kamara, Erik McCoy, and Lucas Patrick all missed Wednesday’s practice. Conversely, Chris Olave was full in Wednesday’s practice, so there’s a good chance he’ll return.

PLAYER PROPS: There are currently no player props listed. There’s not much to like here anyway.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve decided not to bet this game. With Erik McCoy and Lucas Patrick sidelined, the Saints will have cluster injuries on the interior of the offensive line. Alvin Kamara is sidelined as well. Chris Olave may play after being full all week, but there’s no guarantee he’ll take the field.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been a bit of sharp money on the Raiders, though nothing substantial. I can understand why because the Saints are so banged up. The best line is -2 -102 at Bookmaker. The best line is +2 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Saints were just shut out on national TV. The Raiders are coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 53% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Raiders are 37-56 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Saints -2.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.