2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Lions at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the gays, where tonight the Detroit Tigers take on the San Francisco Gay Giants. Guys, Mother made me put on steel underwear before leaving for San Francisco because she said the gays will try to corrupt me and ravage my bunghole, even more so than demonic women. No gays have tried to ravage my bunghole, but I really have to go to the bathroom. For someone who is definitely the big kahuna around here, I don’t feel very much in charge.

Emmitt: Thanks, Cagnazzo. I find it real interesting that you say you has steel underwear covering your private sexual. When I was a student in the University of Florida Go Gata State, a bunch of guy say that we should breaked into the women dorm and steal their underwear. I did not want to risked getting into trouble and kick off the football so I decided not to parktake in these escapade. Plus, I had to study for my math test, which was real difficulty because they ask the question one plus one on the test, and I do not knowed if the answer are two, eleven, or one one. It good thing I did not parktake in the steal of underwear because one of my friend got shoot and kill when this happen.

Reilly: Emmitt, I don’t know why any guy would have any interest in women’s underwear. Mother sometimes makes me fold her underwear after she does the laundry, and there are sometimes poop stains on them.

Tollefson: Reilly, you know nothing about women. In addition to my collection of female slaves, I also have a collection of women’s underwear. I sneak into gyms and steal them from various lockers. It’s quite nice. I’d say my collection is worth about $716,000.

Reilly: Tolly, I had no idea you could sell women’s underwear. Maybe I’ll sell some of Mother’s. I hope the ones with the biggest poop stains can go for a lot. Speaking of poop stains, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. The Lions injuries continue to add up. Jared Goff stepped in a mouse trap and is out for five months, while Jahmyr Gibbs will be out for eight weeks after being anally probed by aliens. This is a great report that I only I could have uncovered. But now, we are now joined by someone who looks like he spends too much time on social media.

Elon Musk: The network heads have been impressed by my work in DOGE, so they hired me to make this broadcast more efficient. Charissa, I’m sad to say you’re the first to go because your reports are even less factual than Reuters, which let’s face it, is not factual at all.

Charissa Thompson: Huh? Wait, which country do you run again? I lost interest in what you were saying when you opened your mouth. Please continue this interview, and I’ll nod my head in agreement even though I’m not listening.

Elon Musk: I am basically running America right now. Charissa, we will have to let you go. Same with Don Tollefson, Emmitt Smith, and Jay Cutler. We don’t pay Kamala and Donald Trump, so they can stay. Kevin Reilly, you’ll be more efficient if you stop listening to your mother, and here, by the way, is a magical key I invented to unlock your steel underwear. And we need more Ron Wolfley for the memes.

Reilly: Oh no, no, no, no, you’re not getting me, you sly fox. If I unlock my steel underwear, the next thing that’ll happen is that a bunch of gay guys will rush to ravage my bunghole. No thank you! Camel Toe Harry, can you talk some sense into this Enron Musk guy so that he doesn’t lead to my bunghole being ravaged?

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family, and I’ve been unburdened by what has been. When I was growing up in this middle-class family, my mother used to always say that if you fall off a coconut tree, you betttter get backkk up. Haha, getttt baccclkkck up, get it? Ha HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAA. Getttttting bbbbback up, HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAA. Oh maanann ththe allcochooll isss reallyl kcickkinngg iinnn woooo lleeett’ss alll hhaavavveee ssseexxxx toooo impprprovve oourur jooobbb ssttattuuss woooo!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, if anyone is going to improve their job status by having sex, it’s not going to be you because you’ve been worn out like an old shoe, and not just an old shoe, the oldest shoe anyone has ever seen, it’s so old that it predates all shoes, that’s how old of a shoe you are, and you’re the opposite of Trump, who improves his job status all the time with sex because Trump is the ultimate sex beast, no one has ever seen anything like it, and it’s so extreme that Trump needs steel underwear like that Kevin Reilly beauty has, but Trump’s steel underwear is the strongest anyone has ever seen, frankly, it’s much stronger than Kevin Reilly’s steel underwear or anyone else’s steel underwear because Trump needs it more than anyone, especially that total loser and total disgrace Kamala, who doesn’t need steel underwear because she has a steel brain, which means she has no brain at all, because it was stolen, just like the 2020 election was stolen, in fact it was so stolen that frankly, no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, WITH ALL DUE RESPECT, MY FRIEND, WHO IS ACTUALLY STEEL UNDERWEAR, IS THE STRONGEST STEEL UNDERWEAR YOU’LL SEE BECAUSE HE HAS DORITOS FOR LEGS AND PORKCHOPS FOR ARMS.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, can you please get rid of Elong Musk guy because he said we should be fired because we’re not efficient?

Jay Cutler: Meh, he’s probably right.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, you’re support to fight for our jobs! Who’s going to make money so I can buy Nick Foles bobblehead dolls and you can put food on the dinner table?

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about dinner, Kevin. Let’s discuss some possible dinners, Kevin. We can begin with spaghetti, Kevin. Someone mentioned porkchops, Kevin, which is another dinner, Kevin. What do you think about ribs, Kevin? Then there’s rice, Kevin, and you can combine rice with almost anything, Kevin. Why not chat about mashed potatoes, Kevin? Let’s segue to salad, Kevin. What do you think about pizza, Kevin? Then there’s macaroni and cheese, Kevin. And finally there’s chicken, Kevin, which can be used to describe, you, Kevin, because you’re a chicken, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, THE JOKE IS ON YOU BECAUSE I AM RUBBER YOU ARE GLUE WHATEVER COMES BACK TO ME, I MEAN BOUNCES OFF ME COMES BACK AND STICKS TO YOU SO YOU’RE THE CHICKEN, YOU LOSER! We’ll be back after this!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions bounced back very well from their loss to the Bills. They dismantled the Bears despite missing multiple starters. They even had some fun with a hilarious trick play where Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs pretended that they fumbled the snap.

Speaking of Gibbs, he projects extremely well in this contest. De’Von Achane just had his best rushing performance of the year against this beleaguered San Francisco rush defense that has missed countless tackles all year. With David Montgomery out, the Lions swapped their goal-line hammer with a younger player who can provide more explosive plays.

The Lions will get explosive plays from their passing attack as well. The 49ers have struggled against slot receivers and tight ends this year, and that’s where Detroit primarily attacks.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers won’t have much of a chance of matching Detroit’s point total in this game. Brock Purdy needs a strong rushing attack to be successful, especially with the other injuries on this side of the ball. He’s certainly not getting that with Patrick Taylor.

Perhaps Isaac Guerendo will be able to return this week, but it won’t matter much in this matchup. The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, so Guerendo won’t find much running room.

The 49ers will have some success moving the ball, primarily with George Kittle. The Lions are weaker to tight ends, so Kittle should perform well. However, if Trent Williams is out again – and there’s no reason to rush him back now – the 49ers will have problems sustaining consistent drives.

RECAP: It may seem strange that this line is -3.5. I made this spread -5.5, but was thinking I was shy, so I thought -6 was possible. Instead, the Lions are favored by a field goal and a hook over the dead 49ers.

I imagine that the sportsbooks refrained from making this line higher because this game may not matter if the Vikings win. If Minnesota prevails, the division and No. 1 seed will come down to next week’s game against Minnesota, no matter what happens in this contest. If the Vikings win, I imagine this line will fall because the Lions may end up resting their starters.

Conversely, if the Vikings lose to the Packers, the Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed with a victory in this contest. I imagine the spread will also change if that happens. Perhaps it’ll move to the -5.5 or -6 I envisioned.

Because I like the Packers, I’m going to side with Detroit. The Lions will be hyped up to win the No. 1 seed and avenge their playoff loss to the 49ers. I’ll reevaluate Monday afternoon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Evan talked me into believing that the Lions’ spot is so much better than I anticipated. I will probably be betting Detroit.

SATURDAY NOTES: Two developments have made me love the Lions. First, Dan Campbell said his team will take this game seriously. I believe Campbell, who is often truthful. This is a revenge game for Detroit, after all. Second, the 49ers’ offensive line is a complete disaster with cluster injuries. This is a huge play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may lock in this pick on Sunday night.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: This is a bit later than usual, but I’ve been waiting on an announcement regarding Detroit’s starters. Dan Campbell said that his team would go all out versus the 49ers, but that was before the Green Bay-Minnesota result. I don’t think Campbell would lie, and he seems like the sort of coach who would play everyone. If he does, I’ll have five units on the Lions. As for player props and the same-game parlay, I’ll post that in the 7 o’clock hour once we get some clarity on what the Lions will do. If the Lions start everyone, Jahmyr Gibbs over rushing yards will be the play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have a feeling that the Lions will play their starters in the first half and then pull them in the third quarter. This is what the sharps believe, as they’ve betting Detroit first half. The best line for the game is -4 -113 at BetRivers, and the best first-half line is -2.5 -132, also at BetRivers. This will be a five-unit wager. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

Because the Lions may bench their starters at some point, I regrettably can’t give you a player prop bet or a same-game parlay. Again, Jahmyr Gibbs is the way to go if you believe the Lions will play their starters the entire game, and I’d parlay that with Sam LaPorta over receiving yards, Deebo Samuel over receiving yards, and Isaac Gurendo under rushing yards.

The Motivation. Edge: TBA.

This game won’t matter if the Vikings beat the Packers.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Tons of money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 93% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Patchy frost, 52 degrees. Light wind.