2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Cardinals at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Arizona’s defense was utterly pathetic last week. The unit allowed Bryce Young to have the best quarterback rating in the entire league last week. The same Bryce Young who was given up for dead when he was benched after two weeks earlier this season.

If the Cardinals were that bad defensively against the Panthers, how will they possibly handle the Rams? They shut down Los Angeles back in Week 2, but Puka Nacua was sidelined, and Cooper Kupp got hurt during the game. The Rams were also missing personnel on their offensive line. The Cardinals have the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so they’re going to have an extremely difficult time rattling Matthew Stafford.

It’s unlikely that the Cardinals will be able to stop the run either. We just saw Chuba Hubbard bulldoze them in an overtime loss. Arizona is 23rd in adjusted EPA run defense, so this wasn’t much of a surprise. Kyren Williams figures to have a monstrous performance this week.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of monstrous performances from running backs, James Conner was enjoying one last week until he injured his knee in the third quarter. Conner was knocked out of the game, so with no Trey Benson being available, the Cardinals couldn’t run the ball at all. This obviously hurt their game plan in the second half.

With this game utterly meaningless, there’s no reason for Arizona to rush back any of its injured running backs. It’ll likely be Michael Carter again, which means that the Rams’ mediocre run defense won’t be exposed.

Conner wasn’t the only major injury the Cardinals suffered last week. They also lost Jonah Williams, which was especially painful because they were already missing Paris Johnson. It remains to be seen if the two tackles will play this Saturday night. If not, Kyler Murray will be harassed often by the league’s 10th-ranked pass rush. Murray will be able to connect with Trey McBride often, but that’ll be the only source of offense.

RECAP: This is a very difficult game to handicap because the result will be determined by Arizona’s mental state. The Cardinals, of course, were just eliminated from the playoffs. They could be a complete no-show as a result. Or, they could be professionals and try hard like the Cowboys did on Sunday night.

If the Cardinals play hard, you have to like the line value attached to them. They were +3.5 on the advance spread, and now they’re +6.5. This line move is only warranted if the Cardinals give up, which is possible. However, we recently saw Arizona go toe to toe with the Vikings on the road, leading 19-6 before losing by a point.

Conversely, if the Cardinals give up, this will obviously be a lopsided affair. The only thing we can do now is perhaps listen for some quotes from Arizona players that will indicate how they will handle this game. If I had to guess, I believe the Cardinals will be a no-show, especially because they just lost in overtime, but I could definitely be wrong about that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Arizona offensive tackles who were injured last week have been placed on injured reserve. James Conner has been limited in practice. This is not looking good for the Cardinals, so perhaps I’ll come in on a bet of some sort on the Rams.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Arizona surrendered a huge game to Chuba Hubbard last week. I love Kyren Williams to pick up where Hubbard left off. It’s hard to imagine Arizona going all out in this game after just being eliminated. The best number is over 90.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel.

In addition to Williams over rushing yards, we’re going to throw in Puka Nacua over 85.5 receiving yards, Trey McBride over 64.5 receiving yards, and Kyler Murray under 28.5 rushing yards. Nacua has been a monster since returning from injury and should continue to thrive. With a diminished offensive line, Murray may have to look underneath more to McBride, and the Rams struggle against tight ends anyway. And I don’t think Murray will be going all out to run on the Rams because he was just eliminated. This $25 parlay pays $274.29 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals are a mess. They just lost both of their tackles, so they have cluster injuries at that crucial position against a solid pass rush. James Conner is also iffy to play. The Rams might be able to clinch playoff berth with a win against the Cardinals, depending on some strength-of-victory tie-breakers that could unfold on Sunday. If all the favorites win, the Rams will be NFC West champions if they beat Arizona. Thus, the Rams should be motivated in this game versus the Cardinals, who were just eliminated. When it comes down to it, do you think Kyler Murray is preparing for this contest, or playing video games?

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rob Havenstein is out, which is not ideal. However, the Cardinals have the worse injury situation despite James Conner’s availability because they have cluster injuries at tackle. With that in mind, I’m shocked the sharps aren’t on the Rams, but they haven’t taken a side in this game. I’m going to be betting three units on the Rams. The best line is -6.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Cardinals were just eliminated from the playoffs.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.5.

Computer Model: Rams -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Decent lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 68% (156,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 13 of the last 17 meetings.

Kyler Murray is 19-9 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Rams -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.