2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Cowboys at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Jalen Hurts should have never given the thumbs up to the official. That was a dead giveaway that he was concussed. As my dad often points out, Hurts seldom smiles or shows any signs of positivity, so the NFL instantly knew that Hurts’ brain was scrambled.

It’s unclear if Hurts will be able to return for this game. If he can play, the Eagles will have an easy time deploying Saquon Barkley. The Cowboys, as the Buccaneers demonstrated on Sunday night, can be gashed by opposing running backs, whether that’s on the ground or through the air. Barkley is obviously capable of triumphing in both areas. His ability to generate chunks of yardage will make things easy for Hurts, who will have to avoid Micah Parsons and the rest of the Dallas pass rush.

If Hurts is unavailable, it’s not even clear who would start because Kenny Pickett got hurt toward the end of Sunday’s game. It could be Tanner McKee, who might actually be an upgrade over the anemic Pickett. Regardless, both Philadelphia quarterbacks will be overwhelmed against what’s been one of the top defenses in the NFL since Parsons returned to action.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Speaking of backup quarterbacks, Cooper Rush has improved markedly since what we saw from him in his first couple of starts. He was utterly atrocious against the Eagles and Texans, but he’s gotten so much better lately.

Then again, it’s fair to question the competition. The Buccaneers, Panthers, and Bengals, Rush’s previous three opponents, have some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. That’s not the case for the Eagles despite what we saw in Washington last week. Philadelphia’s secondary has been great during the second half of the season, and I expect the group to rebound from last week’s performance.

Rush won’t be able to turn to Rico Dowdle for help. The Eagles have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They have, however, given up significant yardage to slot receivers, so that’ll spell trouble versus CeeDee Lamb.

RECAP: The best bets you can make in the NFL is when the superior team has a better motivational angle, and you’re getting a discount with them. That’s what we’re getting here. The Eagles, a Group A team, are vastly superior to the Group D Cowboys. They’re also coming off a loss, so they’ll be motivated, whereas the Cowboys will have trouble sustaining success as a bad team coming off consecutive victories.

Furthermore, we’re getting a spread discount with the Eagles, based on last week’s results. The Eagles were -11.5 on the advance spread, and yet they’re now -9.5. My line is Philadelphia -13, so I love this value.

Obviously, there’s concern with Hurts’ concussion. If he doesn’t play, it could be an injured Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee. If so, I’ll adjust this selection. I also don’t like that Hurts could be playing following a concussion, which is often a bearish proposition, but I think this is an instance where the rest of the team is just so much better than the opposition that it may not matter, much like in last year’s Saints victory over the Giants when Derek Carr returned from a concussion.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Hurts is not off to a good start this week because he was DNP in Wednesday’s practice. Kenny Pickett was limited with his rib injury.

PLAYER PROPS: When Saquon Barkley dropped the ball in Week 2, he rebounded with a great game. When Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball shy of the goal line, he rebounded with a great game. I believe DeVonta Smith will do the same. He won’t have Jalen Hurts, but his receiving yardage prop is low as a consequence. The best number is over 45.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jalen Hurts will sit, and Kenny Pickett will start. Meanwhile, the Cowboys won’t have CeeDee Lamb. I still like the Eagles, but this won’t be the big five-unit bet I anticipated. With no offensive firepower, Dallas won’t stand much of a chance against Philadelphia’s angry defense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is not a surprise. If you like the Eagles, you can get them at -7 -120 at Bookmaker, which is a price worth paying. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are coming off a loss. The Cowboys are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -11.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 57% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings (excluding when Eagles sat their starters).

Eagles are 7-19 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.