2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Dolphins at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: This game would have been a lot of fun had the Browns not made it clear that their intention is to tank. They did so by benching Jameis Winston. To be fair, Winston had a horrible game against the Chiefs where he was guilty of many turnovers, but Winston at least gives the Cleveland receivers a chance to post great stats. The pick-sixes are part of the package. Think of it as more of a feature than a bug.

The Browns, however, plagiarized the Giants’ strategy by benching their best quarterback in favor of the third-string scrub. Dorian Thompson-Robinson had some nice scrambles against the Bengals, but that was about it. He was very fortunate that several of his passes weren’t picked, as he seldom gave his team a chance of scoring.

Thompson-Robinson will have to do everything himself in this game. The Browns won’t be able to run the ball with Jerome Ford against one of the top rush defenses in the NFL.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s amazing what a difference a week can make. Tua Tagovailoa was dreadful against the Texans because his backup offensive tackles couldn’t block Houston’s dynamic edge rush. Things were completely different last week, as Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm returned to action. Tagovailoa had way more time as a consequence.

Assuming the tackles haven’t suffered any sort of setback, Tagovailoa should continue to thrive in this matchup. Armstead is one of the very few tackles in the NFL who can somewhat keep Myles Garrett at bay, so being able to neutralize the All-Pro edge rusher will be crucial.

Like the Browns, the Dolphins won’t be able to run very much. However, De’Von Achane will generate plenty of production as a receiver out of the backfield. The Browns are in the upper half of the NFL as far as missing tackles is concerned, so Achane and the other Dolphin play-makers, who thrive so much after the catch, will continue to pick up chunks of yardage.

RECAP: When in doubt, use the Dolphins rule. Miami beats good teams and loses to bad teams. That’s all they do.

Do I need to tell you under which category the Browns fall? Cleveland was at least competitive with Winston under center, but the team is clearly tanking with Thompson-Robinson.

We faded the Browns for a huge play last week, and we will do so again, provided that the Dolphins are motivated. If they are, I love them this week. I wish they were coming off a loss to make the spot more appealing, but they shouldn’t have trouble obliterating yet another bad team.

The Dolphins will be motivated if one of the Broncos or Chargers lose on Saturday. If both win, the Dolphins will be eliminated from the playoffs, and if they are, I will not be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re still waiting on to see if the Broncos and/or Chargers end up losing. We’ll have a better upgrade on Saturday.

PLAYER PROPS: I like Jonnu Smith’s over prop, but we need to make sure Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and motivated. I may add this prop on Sunday afternoon.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re now waiting on two things. One, the Broncos/Chargers results. Two, Tua Tagovailoa is questionable with a hip injury. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps took the Browns at +3.5. Yeah, good luck with that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Not only is Tua Tagovailoa out; Jaylen Waddle is sidelined as well. The sharps bet the Browns at +3.5, but not +3. I have no interest in this game. The best line is -3 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Browns are tanking. The Dolphins are playing for a postseason spot if one of the Broncos or Chargers lose.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.

Computer Model: Dolphins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

I’m surprised there’s not more money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 77% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Rain, 54 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.