2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Titans at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

Video of the Week: Two weeks ago, I posted a video about the actors of Game of Thrones answering questions. This past summer, I made a video about the show, and how I would fix the final two seasons:

What do you think about my choice to be on the Iron Throne at the end?

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I played Mason Rudolph in my single-entry DraftKings lineup last week. You can imagine how stupid I felt when Rudolph fired multiple interceptions against the Colts, giving Indianapolis a 38-7 lead midway through the third quarter. Fortunately, Rudolph came through in garbage time to get me over the cash line.

Rudolph should play better in this game. It’s all about the pressure because the Titans don’t pass block very well. The Colts were able to exploit this with their solid pass rush. The Jaguars, conversely, have the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Rudolph will have a much cleaner pocket this week, so he’ll be able to connect with Calvin Ridley, who will want revenge against his former team.

Rudolph also will be able to lean on the run. This wasn’t possible last week because of the early deficit, but the Jaguars are unlikely to obtain that sort of a scoring advantage. Tony Pollard will be able to exploit a poor run defense.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I was shocked by how well Jonathan Taylor ran against the Titans last week. Sure, he was determined to redeem himself after screwing up against the Broncos, but Tennessee is ordinarily stout against the run.

Given how embarrassed the Titans were last week, I believe it’ll be their turn to show some fortitude. They’ll want to redeem themselves, so I suspect they’ll perform well against the run this Sunday. Then again, it’s not like they have to stop a tremendous rushing attack, or anything.

Even if the Jaguars can’t run, they’ll still have some explosive plays from Brian Thomas Jr. The Titans have some issues in the secondary, so stopping Thomas will be an issue. However, Mac Jones is inept, so he could be the quarterback committing turnovers this time.

RECAP: On the surface, this is sort of looks like the Raiders-Jaguars game from last week. I had no interest in betting either side. The Raiders and Jaguars were two Group F teams battling against each other, so there was no edge of any sort.

This, however, is a bit different because I have the Titans as a Group D team. They embarrassed themselves last week, but did so on the road against a Group C team. This is a far easier opponent for them. And I suspect that they’ll play hard in this game because they were blown out this past Sunday before garbage time. Plus, they lost to the Jaguars a few weeks ago when they blew a small lead in the second half in the wake of Will Levis hurting his shoulder.

This is definitely not one of my favorite picks, but I like the Titans enough to make a small wager on them. They’re the better team with some motivation, and we’re getting points, or rather a point with them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me regarding this pick. I would still be leaning toward the Titans.

PLAYER PROPS: Chig Okonkwo has gotten insane usage lately. He has caught 17 of his 21 targets in the past two weeks. He now gets a Jacksonville defense that can’t stop tight ends at all. The best number is over 37.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Unlike the other crappy game, my projected bet remains. The Titans even look better right now because Jacksonville won’t have its new left tackle, Walker Little. This means that according to Pro Football Focus, five of Jacksonville’s seven offensive line players (Trevor Lawrence, Little, Evan Engram, Cam Robinson, Christian Kirk) are all sidelined/traded.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game. I still like the Titans a little bit. The best line is PK -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

Tennessee’s defense was embarrassed last week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -1.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 56% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Jaguars have won 4 of last 5 meetings.

Jaguars are 15-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -1.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Likely rain, 73 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.