2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Jets at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: As someone commented on our YouTube show, “Leave it to Aaron Rodgers to suddenly play his best once the Jets were eliminated.” Rodgers has certainly played his best following a slow start. He had some poor performances at times during the season, but he’s been great lately. The Jets scored just nine points last week, but they had multiple long drives stall in the red zone.

Rodgers would ordinarily have a tough matchup against the Bills, but Buffalo has some injuries at the moment, including cluster injuries at safety. This could allow Rodgers to once again connect with Davante Adams, who has been on fire of late.

The Bills, however, have been stronger against the run lately. This will be key against Breece Hall, who has seemingly recovered from a prior injury. He once again looked explosive last week, but the Bills could limit him.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Jets likely won’t have the same success against Buffalo’s rushing attack. In the first meeting between these teams, James Cook was sidelined, but it didn’t matter. Ray Davis bulldozed through New York’s beleaguered ground defense.

Cook and Davis should continue to run well, picking up where Kyren Williams left off against the Jets last week. This will make things easier for Josh Allen, who misfired on just six occasions in the first meeting between these teams. New York’s secondary has been a huge disappointment this year, so Allen should once again have success through the air.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Allen didn’t run very much, however. Allen tends to scramble a lot in big games, but considering that the Bills are double-digit favorites, I would expect more of a conservative approach from Allen unless he’s in fourth-quarter comeback mode.

RECAP: The Jets have had a humbling season in which their Super Bowl aspirations went up in smoke. They couldn’t even match the record they had last year with Zach Wilson. They’re one of the most disappointing teams of our lifetime.

This, however, is all the Jets have left. This is their Super Bowl. They will put forth a ton of effort into this game.

Ironically, this game may not mean much to the Bills. If the Chiefs win on Christmas, they cannot obtain the No. 1 seed. They can lose the No. 2 seed to the Ravens, but they can prevent that from happening by beating the Patriots in Week 18. At the very least, the Bills may rest some of their banged-up players.

I like the Jets for the motivational angle. Also, this line is a bit too high. It’s -10, but I made this -8.5. The EPA numbers are even more bearish on the Bills, projecting this line at -3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Jets has dropped the line to +9, but then again, the sharps have been betting the Jets all year.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t understand this Breece Hall rushing line. Hall’s prop is only 47.5, and yet he’s eclipsed that in seven of his previous eight games, with the lone exception being when he was returning from injury. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed a 50-yard rusher in six of their previous seven games. The best number is over 47.5 rushing yards -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Weather could be a factor in this game, It’s going to be rainy with 15-mph winds, which means that the team that can run the ball better will prevail. That’s Buffalo. The Bills also have the injury edge. It’s unclear if either of their safeties will play, but Matt Milano and Rasul Douglas are both off the injury report. Meanwhile, the Jets could be down their top three tackles, and it’s also unclear if some stars like Davante Adams and Quinnen Williams will play. I’m not going to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s very windy in Buffalo today, so the under might be worth a shot. I’ve switched this pick to Buffalo because we’ve seen them play great in harsh weather. I have no desire to bet this game. The sharps have been on both sides, with the most recent money coming in on Buffalo at -9 and -9.5. The only pure -10 -110 line I see is at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Bills may not have anything to play for. This is the Jets’ Super Bowl.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -10.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Plenty of action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 68% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 15 of the last 22 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 133-97 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-23 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 42-27 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Bills are 25-18 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Opening Line: Bills -10.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Rain, 52 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.