2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Ravens at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens seem to have a great matchup in this game that they didn’t possess last week. Derrick Henry seemed to be in a tough spot against the Steelers’ stout run defense. Despite this, he trampled them quite easily, rushing for 162 yards on just 24 carries. Had he scored a touchdown, he would’ve posted a massive fantasy performance.

Henry’s matchup is even better this week. The Texans are far worse against the run than the Steelers. Henry should have a great game this week, which will make life easy for Lamar Jackson.

Then again, Jackson didn’t exactly need a boost in this game. The Texans generate great pressure on the quarterback, but they also miss a ton of tackles. They’re in the top three in missed tackles this year, and they’ve demonstrated that they can’t contain mobile quarterbacks, so bringing down Jackson and all of his threats will be very difficult for them.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: How the Texans will fare on this side of the ball is fairly easy to project. Inept offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik runs at the highest rate on first and second down. He even ran on first down last week when he barely had any time remaining in the game. He has a one-track mind, and all he wants to do is run.

Joe Mixon is great, so this strategy works often. However, it backfires when the opponent is terrific against the run. The Chiefs qualified last week, and the Ravens do even more so. Baltimore completely dismantles opposing ground attacks, so Mixon once again won’t find any room.

This will only put more stress on C.J. Stroud, who miraculously converts third-and-long situations despite Slowik. He’ll be able to do that with Nico Collins on occasion, but with Tank Dell sidelined, Stroud will only be able to do so much, even against a troubled Baltimore cornerback group.

RECAP: I’m copy-pasting this paragraph from the prior capsule because it applies: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games (and short-week games like this one). One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

There’s no doubt that the Ravens are the better team. Whether or not they’ll be focused is the question. Yes, they need to win to secure a chance to win the division, but given that they crushed the Texans in the playoffs, they may take them lightly. This is also an obvious revenge spot for Houston.

Everyone seems to be on the Ravens, and I don’t blame them, given how bad Houston has been. However, I believe that the Ravens are an overrated team because of their poor pass defense, and that poor pass defense could allow the Texans to achieve a back-door cover if needed. I would back Baltimore if I had to, but I have no interest in betting this game, especially at this inflated point spread.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: This is a showcase game for Lamar Jackson, so he’ll be looking to run a lot. The Texans also suck against mobile quarterbacks. The best number is over 45.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw in the Jackson rushing prop with C.J. Stroud over 11.5 rushing yards, Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards, and Nico Collins over 92.5 receiving yards. Stroud should run more to keep pace with the Ravens. Mixon will see more targets with Tank Dell sidelined. And Collins is a beast who will be force fed against Baltimore’s poor secondary. This $25 parlay pays $272.81 at FanDuel. Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to bet on the Ravens for two reasons. First, after talking to Evan on Tuesday’s show, I’m convinced that the Ravens will be up for this game because it’s a showcase Christmas game. Second, the Texans have cluster injuries in the interior of the offensive line. The sharps are all over the Ravens, so you may consider that a third reason. The best line is -6.5 -102 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

Revenge game for the Texans. The Ravens could be flat off their win against the Steelers.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.

Computer Model: Ravens -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Sharp action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 64% (230,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.