2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Chiefs at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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Week 16 Analysis: We had a winning Week 16 because we hit our December NFL Pick of the Month. However, it wasn’t a great week. I made a huge mistake with a three-unit pick, and we got unlucky with a two-unit play on the Eagles where Jalen Hurts left with a concussion after four pass attempts. I also completely missed out on two obvious plays with the Falcons and Dolphins, which really bothers me. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Bengals, 8 units (win): The inept Browns came through for us with two turnovers in the red zone. Thank you for tanking, Cleveland!

Lions, 5 units (win): This was an easier win than Cincinnati. The Lions were in an obvious bounce-back spot against a far-inferior opponent.

Seahawks, 5 units (push): This was a back-and-forth game where the Seahawks outgained the Vikings in total yards (361-298) and yards per play (6.0-4.8), but the Vikings ended up winning with a push. It was a bit frustrating not to get this one, but at least it wasn’t a loss.

Buccaneers, 3 units (loss): This was an absolutely horrible pick. The Buccaneers were in a terrible spot off a blowout win, and I even said repeatedly that I didn’t know how to properly evaluate them. I should have had three-unit plays on the Falcons and Dolphins instead.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s truly remarkable that Patrick Mahomes was able to rush for a touchdown on the opening drive versus Houston. Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain just six days earlier, yet he was as nimble as ever. It was almost as if the injury never occurred. Unreal.

Mahomes will obviously be healthy for this game, and he’ll have an improved receiving corps at his disposal. That’s because Marquise Brown will be playing his second game with the team. Brown returned Saturday and was a solid contributor. With Brown available, and Xavier Worthy showing improvement, Mahomes suddenly has some nice weapons. The Steelers can be beaten by outside receivers, so this is looking like a decent edge for Kansas City.

While the receiving corps will be improved, the Chiefs still need to figure out their left tackle situation. D.J. Humphries has missed the past two games, and Kansas City will be hoping he returns so Mahomes can avoid T.J. Watt’s pressure at all. Humphries can’t exactly stop Watt, but he’ll do a much better job than the other bums the Chiefs have used on the blind side.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers also have issues offensively, as they’ve struggled on this side of the ball in recent weeks. The primary reason for that has been George Pickens’ absence. Pickens being out has removed any sort of play-making threat in the receiving corps. Russell Wilson, as a result, has had to target the likes of Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, and Mike Williams.

The Steelers will need Pickens to return to have any sort of chance. The problem is that this game is just four days over the previous one, so Pickens may not be ready to play. And even if he is, there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent. It seems likely that the Steelers will be stagnant again.

Pittsburgh won’t be able to threaten the Chiefs with the run either. Kansas City is excellent at stopping the rush, as Joe Mixon just learned this past Saturday.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games (and short-week games like this one). One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

The Steelers are a good team, but the Chiefs have the potential to be a great team. That hasn’t been the case for most of the season when Kansas City has beaten the likes of the Panthers and Raiders by three points or fewer, but things seem to be changing. The Chiefs have been victorious over their previous two foes by more than a touchdown. With Brown serving as an upgraded receiving threat, and Worthy progressing, the Chiefs won’t be so limited offensively.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, will be limited offensively if Pickens doesn’t play. Assuming he’s out again, how can you not like the Chiefs? They’re the better team, and they’ll be motivated because they can wrap up the No. 1 seed with a win. Good teams tend to thrive when given motivational tasks like winning the division or claiming the No. 1 seed, and that will definitely apply to the Chiefs this week. I will be betting Kansas City for a few units if Pickens is sidelined.

Our Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to try Pat Freiermuth again. The Chiefs are utterly awful against tight ends. The best number is over 28.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw the Freiermuth receiving yards into a same-game parlay with Calvin Austin over 27.5 receiving yards, Xavier Worthy over 4.5 receptions, and Russell Wilson over 12.5 rushing yards. The Steelers are bad against No. 2 receivers, and Austin only needs one catch to reach 28 yards. Worthy has seen 22 targets in the past two games. And Wilson has been running more, and this is a big game, so he could scramble more often. This $25 parlay pays $248.47 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m off the Chiefs. Not only is George Pickens playing; Chris Jones is out. Kansas City’s defense is completely different without Jones, so I can’t back the Chiefs at all. The sharps are on the Steelers. If you still want to bet the Chiefs, the best line is -2 -110 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs can wrap up the No. 1 seed with a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 56% (284,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 98-25 SU, 65-56 ATS (51-43 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Steelers are 44-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Mike Tomlin is 63-36 ATS as an underdog.

Russell Wilson is 34-17 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 36-19 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 37 degrees. Light wind.