2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Packers at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Wing Flinger 3000. Check out how bad my son’s Paw Patrol book is.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers were wise to rest Josh Jacobs in the second half of the Monday night game. There was no reason to run him into the ground, given that they had such a big lead over the inept Saints. Thus, it’ll help that he’ll have fresh legs in this contest despite being on a short work week.

Jacobs will need all the help he can get because the Vikings have maintained a dominant rush defense this year. They did allow more yards on the ground than expected to the Seahawks, but there’s a chance that regresses to the mean this week. That said, Jacobs is one of a few running backs in the NFL who can overcome a difficult matchup, given that he recently did so versus the Lions.

Still, “No Cookie” Jordan Love will have to do a lot in this game, so it’s important to look at how he does against the blitz because the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Love’s numbers are worse when blitzed, but not substantially. His completion percentage drops by three points, which is not a big deal. His YPA is 1.3 worse, but it’s still a 7.4, which is rather good. Love may not have his deep threat – we bet Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop, so he got hurt, oF cOuRsE – but he still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, and Minnesota’s secondary hasn’t been very good in the second half of the season.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Both quarterbacks figure to be busy in this game. Aaron Jones will want his revenge, but it’ll be difficult for him to obtain it because the Packers are even better against the run than they are versus the pass.

It’ll be up to Sam Darnold to beat a top-tier team, which is something that he hasn’t done since Christian Darrisaw’s injury. The Packers have a quality pass rush, which generates a good amount of pressure despite seldom blitzing. Darnold will feel it from the Green Bay front seven with Darrisaw no longer protecting him, and given that he’ll have to operate in long-yardage situations, he could be forced into a turnover or two.

Then again, Darnold has plenty of talent at his disposal. The Packers are weak against tight ends, so Darnold figures to have success targeting T.J. Hockenson. We’ll also have to see if Jaire Alexander can return from his extended absence; otherwise, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will be difficult to defend.

RECAP: We have a rare instance here where a Group A team is an underdog to a non-Group A team. I wondered how this dynamic fared this year. Group A teams are 5-2 against the spread in this situation. It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense that they would fare well.

Granted, we’re only getting one point with the Packers, but at least they’re not favored. They should be, according to both my numbers and EPA. Those projected spreads -2 and -3.5, respectively, so I love the value we’re getting with Green Bay.

It’s not often you can get good value with the superior team in a matchup, but when you do, you have to take advantage of it. And yes, the Packers are the superior team. All but one of Minnesota’s victories since Darrisaw’s injury have come against Group C teams or worse. The lone exception was last week’s three-point win at Seattle, but the Group B Seahawks outgained the Vikings in both total net yards and yards per play.

The only disadvantage the Packers have in this game is one fewer day of rest, but I believe they can overcome that and win this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Packers. I can’t say I’m surprised because I love Green Bay this week.

PLAYER PROPS: We whiffed on T.J. Hockenson last week, but we’ll try him again. Hockenson looks great against a Green Bay defense that is soft against tight ends. The best number is over 42.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: There aren’t major injuries worth noting. The Packers will be down a couple of players, but they don’t have any cluster injuries. I still love Green Bay.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Packers. As of Sunday morning, the sharps haven’t taken a side in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Watson is out, of course. The Packers are getting sharp action, which is nice to see. They’re now favored in some sportsbooks, but you can still get +1 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Slight lean on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 58% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Teams have split the past 4 years.

Packers are 67-43 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 58-39 ATS in the regular season.

Vikings are 48-38 ATS at home since 2014 (17-23 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -1.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.