2024 NFL Picks – Week 17: Broncos at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Broncos are known for having a great defense, but their stop unit hasn’t been so great lately. They surrendered a ton of passing yards to Jameis Winston on a recent Monday night. Jonathan Taylor ripped off a big run against them, and the Colts would have prevailed if Taylor didn’t foolishly drop the ball shy of the goal line. And last week, Gus Edwards went nuts against them in the second half.

There are certainly some cracks in the foundation for Joe Burrow to exploit, especially if No. 2 cornerback Riley Moss is sidelined again. Having a talented second cornerback is obviously crucial against the Bengals when Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy. Even if Moss returns, there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent in his first game back in action.

It’s usually very difficult to run on the Broncos, but as mentioned, Taylor and Edwards have done it recently. I wouldn’t completely count on Chase Brown having a great game on the ground, but he’ll be able to pick up some yards as a receiver out of the backfield.

DENVER OFFENSE: Cincinnati’s biggest issue in this game won’t be scoring on Denver’s defense. It’ll be stopping the Broncos offense. As great as Cincinnati’s scoring unit is, its defense is just as bad.

The Bengals have some serious problems in their secondary. They’ve had immense difficulty defending No. 1 receivers. This didn’t surface last week because Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the quarterback, but Bo Nix has thrived while targeting Courtland Sutton. Nix should be able to deliver some deep throws to his other wideouts as well.

The Broncos aren’t very good at running the ball, but they’ll have some success on the ground this week. We just saw Jerome Ford burst for a 66-yard run last week, so Denver should be able to generate some explosive plays form its mediocre running backs.

RECAP: I wish I had a strong take on this game, but I don’t. This is because I’ve been opposed to both teams for a while. I’ve called the Broncos overrated because they’ve beaten absolutely no one. Six of their nine wins have come against teams in Group D or Group F. Their other three victories were all fluky or circumstantial. They got by the Colts because of Taylor’s dropped ball. They beat the Buccaneers, who were completely unfocused after getting revenge on the Lions. And they squeaked by the Jets, who had a London game next.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have an explosive offense, but absolutely no defense. Russell Wilson threw for more than 400 yards against them. As long as they’re battling a functional quarterback – i.e. not Thompson-Robinson – their defense can easily be exposed.

I think these teams are about even. If you give the Bengals 1.5 points for being at home, and then subtract a half point because of Denver’s extra rest, the line should be -1. Yet, the spread is -3. I will be on the Broncos because of this, but I have no desire to place any money on this overrated Denver squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Riley Moss has been fully practicing this week, so that’s great news for the Broncos. I still don’t envision myself betting them, however.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Mike Gesicki is the play in this game. The Broncos are weak against tight ends, and with Tanner Hudson out and Tee Higgins banged up, Gesicki could see more of a target share than usual. The best number is over 24.5 -113 at FanDuel.

We’re throwing in the Gesicki over with Ja’Marr Chase over 90.5 receiving yards, Courtland Sutton over 66.5 receiving yards, and Marvin Mims over 25.5 receiving yards. We saw what Jerry Jeudy did to Denver’s defense a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Bengals can’t stop opposing receivers. Sutton has been great all year, while Mims’ usage has been increasing. This $25 parlay pays $242.26 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Three Bengals popped up on the injury report with illnesses. Three or more illnesses occurring during the course of the week indicates that the flu is going around the locker room. This gives me some interest in betting the Broncos. I may put a unit or two on Denver on Saturday afternoon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins was questionable with two injuries, but he’s active. Despite this, I like the Broncos, but not enough to bet them. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +3.5 -115 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 59% (180,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Sean Payton is 23-10 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Joe Burrow is 44-22 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 62 degrees. Light wind.