NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
2024 NFL Picks: 117-109-9 (-$3,210)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: We’ll begin with the Seahawks because we don’t know who’s starting for them. Geno Smith injured his knee in the second half of the Packers game and never returned after exiting. Slingin’ Sammy Howell replaced him and then proceeded to do nothing but take sacks the entire time.

There’s a huge disparity between the two quarterbacks, and that will be emphasized in this matchup. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, and it’s not even close. Smith is terrific against the blitz. His completion percentage and EPA are actually higher when blitzed compared to when he’s not. Conversely, Howell has a complete meltdown when he sees any sort of pressure.

It’s not like Seattle’s rushing attacks projects well enough for Howell to overcome this. The Vikings are stellar at stopping the run, so Howell will constantly be in long-yardage situations, which can only lead to more sacks and turnovers. Smith would be able to get out of those, assuming that he’s healthy enough to do so.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings have their own quarterback issues. Yes, they’re 12-2, but it’s not like Sam Darnold is playing well for the most part. Darnold’s passes were all over the place against the Bears on Monday Night Football. The announcers blamed it on Darnold banging his hand on an offensive lineman’s helmet on two occasions. If so, perhaps Darnold will be better this week, although that would require him to recover on short rest.

Darnold will need to overcome this issue because the Seahawks tend to cover receivers well. The same can’t be said about their inability to defend tight ends, so T.J. Hockenson could have another big game. The Seahawks are great at getting after the quarterback, and the Vikings haven’t quite been the same since losing All-Pro left tackle Christian Darrisaw.

Turning to the running game may not be very effective. The Seahawks have been able to clamp down against the run for the most part since Leonard Williams returned to health and Earnest Jones was acquired from the Titans. We just saw Josh Jacobs crack through this ground defense, but I’m not sure if Aaron Jones will be able to have similar success.

RECAP: We’re waiting on Smith news. If Smith is able to play and doesn’t seem like he’ll be affected by the knee injury, I’d like the Seahawks. This is the first time the Vikings will have played a team with a winning record since losing Darrisaw. They’re 7-0 since losing Darrisaw, but they haven’t battled any team above Group C. The Seahawks with a healthy Smith are in Group B, so they’d provide the Vikings with a tough challenge they haven’t faced since taking on the Rams during a Thursday night loss.

If Howell gets the nod, I don’t think I’d be able to get off the Vikings. I mentioned how bad Howell is with pressure, so I wouldn’t have any faith in the Seahawks moving the ball. Backup quarterbacks are often poor bets against top-12 defenses, and Minnesota is ranked 10th in adjusted defensive EPA.

It’s only Tuesday, but the latest we have from head coach Mike Macdonald is that Smith is expected to practice and play this week. We’ll see. I’ll pencil in the Seahawks for now, but I will switch to Minnesota if Smith either can’t go or looks like he’ll be severely limited. Seattle will be a big play with Smith, especially considering that the Vikings could be looking past them with battles against the Packers and Lions on the horizon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Geno Smith practiced fully on Wednesday, which is obviously a great sign for his availability and effectiveness this week. I’m going to have a big play on Seattle if Smith plays.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks have been very soft against tight ends. We bet T.J. Hockenson with great success last week, and we’ll do so again. The best number is over 41.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Geno Smith and the Seattle running backs have no injury designation. I love the Seahawks and will be upgrading this pick to five units.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock this in because there’s sharp money on the Seahawks, so I’m worried about this line falling to +2.5. The best line is +3 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad we locked in the Seahawks because this line dropped to +2.5 because of all the sharp money coming in on Seattle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Seahawks. All of the +3 lines are gone. The best I see is +2.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Vikings battle the Packers and Lions the next two weeks.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

The public is on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 70% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seaawks.

Seahawks are 22-10 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Rain, 50 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: If it wasn’t clear that Josh Allen was MVP prior to the past two weeks, then it is now. Allen threw for three touchdowns and rushed for three more against the Rams, and then proceeded to light up the Lions for 48 points. He seems unstoppable right now.

The Patriots won’t have any response for what Allen and the Bills are doing. New England struggles against mobile quarterbacks, which is not a good feature to have against Allen. The Patriots play poorly against ground attacks in general, so James Cook will have some explosive plays.

Allen will successfully attack New England’s secondary as well. Christian Gonzalez will be able to lock down Amari Cooper, but with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back from injury, Allen has way too many options for the Patriots to handle.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots will want to keep Drake Maye away from Buffalo’s talented pass rushers, so they’ll want to establish Rhamondre Stevenson. There are two issues with this. One, the Bills have shown some improvement against the run lately, ranking 11th against it in adjusted EPA. Two, the Patriots could be way behind and forced into throwing.

As mentioned, Maye will have to deal with Buffalo’s pass rush. The Bills don’t rank very highly in pressure rate, but they blitz at one of the lowest clips in the NFL, so the defensive line’s ability to get to the quarterbacks is underrated. Also, New England’s offensive line is garbage, so Buffalo will easily win in the trenches.

Maye is capable of some big plays, so he’ll be able to put some points on the board. However, most of that will come in garbage time, which is where Maye has exclusively thrived against Group C teams or better. Maye won’t stand a chance while this game is close.

RECAP: Despite their great record, the Bills have had a very difficult schedule. They’ve battled just one team below Group C all year. That was Tennessee, and the score was 34-10. You may wonder about the Jaguars, but when they had Trevor Lawrence, Cam Robinson, and a healthy receiving corps, I had them in Group C. The Bills dismantled the Jaguars anyway.

The point of this is that the Patriots are the Bills’ easiest- or second-easiest opponent all year. Buffalo should win this one going away, just like Miami and Arizona did against them. The one concern is motivation. The Bills are chasing the No. 1 seed, so they may not be flat, but there’s a chance that they could be caught napping after their great victory at Detroit last week. I actually don’t think this will happen because the Bills just had their letdown spot against the Rams, but just wanted to point it out as a possibility.

By the way, if you’re worried about the Bills not covering a line this high, they’re 4-4-2 against the spread as favorites of 14 or more under Allen. That’s not a great record, but it just shows that they can beat the number, and fading a line this high isn’t a winning proposition either.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This game was moved to 4:25 p.m, and it’s projected to be 10 degrees. As for the injuries, all three Buffalo defensive backs who missed last week’s game – Rasul Douglas, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin – were limited in Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: The Bills are very weak against slot receivers. There will be plenty of garbage time for Demario Douglas to eclipse his player prop. The best number is over 34.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: All three defensive backs who missed last week’s game for Buffalo are all questionable with nothing but limited practice all week. Matt Milano is also questionable with limited practices. Milano hasn’t quite been himself since his return, but he still has time to fully recover.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still like the Bills for a few units. I don’t see a reason to lock them in yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I hate the inactives report for the Bills. All of the questionable players are out: Matt Milano, Rasul Douglas, Damar Hamlin, and Taylor Rapp are all sidelined. I don’t like big favorites with cluster injuries, so I’m not going to bet this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is Bills -14 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills just crushed the Lions, but they just had their letdown spot.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -14.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -13.

Computer Model: Bills -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 86% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -14.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 10 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: What happened to the 49ers last Thursday? They were so brilliant offensively against the Bears just four days earlier, yet they couldn’t score more than six points against the Rams.

Inconsistency has plagued the 49ers this year, especially in games where Trent Williams has been missing. It’ll be interesting to see if Williams can return following an extended break. He’ll be needed with the Dolphins potentially welcoming back Bradley Chubb to play with impressive rookie Chop Robinson.

Brock Purdy will need the improved blocking because he has his work cut out for him. The Dolphins have talented cornerbacks who can limit his receivers, and Miami’s run defense just put the clamps on Joe Mixon, so Isaac Guerendo isn’t expected to do much. Purdy’s best area of attack will be to George Kittle because the Dolphins do not play well against tight ends.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Kittle won’t be the only tight end who produces on a high level in this game. Jonnu Smith has been excellent in the second half of the season, and his torrid streak should continue in this favorable matchup.

Speaking of good matchups, perhaps the most lopsided of those would occur if the Dolphins don’t get their two tackles back from injury. Both Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm missed last week’s game, and the results were disastrous. Tagovailoa had no time to throw as a result. He also couldn’t lean on the running game at all, but that’s been an issue for the majority of the season.

Either way, Tagovailoa will spend lots of time dumping the ball of to his play-makers. The 49ers will have to tackle well, which is something they have not done this year. They’ve consistently been in the top 10 of missed tackles this season.

RECAP: When in doubt, use the Dolphins rule. Miami beats good teams and loses to bad teams. That’s all they do.

The 49ers obviously would have been classified as a good team – at the very least – prior to the season, but that has certainly changed. They’ve been one of the biggest disappointments this season. They’ve blown so many leads, and they’ve had so many dud performances, such as their 12-6 defeat at home versus the Rams last Thursday.

Then again, the 49ers could be healthier this week. They’ve sorely missed their All-Pro left tackle, but Williams might be back this week after an extended rest period. His return would provide a big spark to the offense and could perhaps re-classify the 49ers as a good team. We just saw San Francisco dismantle the Bears, and if the Dolphins continue to have severe offensive line injuries, then this could be another blowout.

One thing to consider is that the 49ers are practically eliminated from the playoffs, so they may not rush back Williams or anyone else. They’re not technically eliminated, but they need a million things to happen, including the Seahawks and Rams to tie in Week 18. That’s not happening, and they know it.

Given that, I’m going to pencil in the Dolphins, but I won’t have any interest in betting them if their tackles are both out again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Williams, Terron Armstead, and Kendall Lamm were all off to poor starts for the week with DNPs on Wednesday. Based on coachspeak, it sounds like Williams is a long shot to play, so I suppose Armstead and Lamm have a better shot.

PLAYER PROPS: I like the matchups for both tight ends, but George Kittle and Jonnu Smith are so priced up, so we don’t have good value on either.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trent Williams has been ruled out. Nick Bosa is questionable after being limited-DNP-limited. The Dolphins had some good news despite Jaylen Waddle being doubtful. Terron Armstead had a limited practice on Friday, while Kendall Lamm had a full practice. Something I noticed is that Tua Tagovailoa was limited twice this week with a hip injury. He doesn’t have an injury designation, but he may not be 100 percent. I’m going to pass on this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Tons of sharp money has come in on the 49ers. This line is now -2. I don’t know why the sharps love the 49ers, but I wonder if they’ll feel differently if San Francisco is eliminated by kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The 49ers will have Nick Bosa, but won’t have Trent Williams. Miami, meanwhile, will have both tackles available. If that news wasn’t bad enough for the 49ers, they will be eliminated from the playoffs if the Rams hold on to their lead. Despite this, there’s sharp money on San Francisco. The best line is +2 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The 49ers are practically eliminated from the playoffs.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -2.

Computer Model: 49ers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The public doesn’t know that the 49ers have been eliminated.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 55% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Dolphins are 34-48 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 74 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Pediatrician’s Appointment. What could possibly go wrong when I took one of my kids to the doctor for the first time?

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It’s difficult to handicap this game because we don’t know if Aidan O’Connell will play. Wait, did I just type that? I never thought I’d care if O’Connell would be able to suit up for a game, but this is where we are.

O’Connell said he’d play Monday, but he never logged a single practice. Instead, it was Desmond Ridder, who was utterly awful until the final two drives against Atlanta’s prevent defense. One might think that Ridder would have an easy matchup against the Jaguars, but he enjoyed a similar great spot against the Falcons, but failed to take advantage of it. He was so bad that he was incapable of connecting with Jakobi Meyers on a single occasion until the final couple of drives.

The Jaguars are just as bad against the run compared to the pass. The Raiders won’t be able to take advantage of this either, so that’s why O’Connell’s presence will really determine Las Vegas’ ability to score.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe that Mac Jones looked like a viable quarterback last week. Sure, he did stupid stuff like running out of bounds for a 7-yard sack and throwing a couple of interceptions. However, he was able to move the chains well in between the 20s.

Though Jones only has one of his remaining play-makers around him in Brian Thomas Jr., he should be able to move the chains on the Raiders, who have a poor defense. Maxx Crosby is out, so the diminished pass rush won’t affect Jones too much. Jones should be able to lean on the run as well with the Jaguars possessing one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: I can’t see myself betting this game. These are two of the three worst teams in the NFL, and they’re both quarterbacked miserably. Besides, we don’t even know who the Raiders’ quarterback will be.

If the Raiders start Ridder, I’ll be on the Jaguars, albeit for no units. The Raiders benefit more from losing because they need a quarterback, and the only way to get one next offseason is to finish with one of the two top picks in the NFL Draft. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are showing more fight at least.

O’Connell would give the Raiders more of a chance. I might consider backing the Raiders at that point, but I still may fall on the Jaguars. Either way, I won’t be betting this game unless one team suffers catastrophic injuries during the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aidan O’Connell practiced fully on Wednesday. With it appearing as though O’Connell will suit up, I’m going to switch my pick to the Raiders, but I’m very far away from betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aidan O’Connell will return. I thought about changing my pick to the Raiders, but I didn’t for two reasons. First, Jordan Meredith, who has been the Raiders’ best offensive lineman since the midpoint of the season, is doubtful. Also, three Raiders missed practice with an illness on Friday, so the flu could be going around the locker room.

PLAYER PROPS: Brenton Strange was a monster last week with 11 catches. I like him again here against the Raiders, who can’t stop tight ends at all. The best number is over 37.5 receiving yards -111 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have no interest in this game aside from the Brenton Strange play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no urge to bet this game, but the sharps are on the Raiders. The best line is +2.5 -105 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -1.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Everyone is betting the Jaguars. OK.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 76% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 65-111 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Raiders are 19-35 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: If Baker Mayfield was told that he would be taking on a tough Chargers defense last week, he may not trust that person ever again. Mayfield had an easy time throwing on the Chargers, especially when targeting Mike Evans, who had a monstrous game.

Mayfield projects to have a tougher matchup this week. The Cowboys struggled in all regards on the defensive side of the ball during the middle of the season, but things changed when Micah Parsons returned to action. Parsons absolutely dominated the Carolina tackles last week, and it’s not like the Panthers are poor at the position. The Buccaneers have quality tackles as well, but Parsons can overcome the matchup.

The Buccaneers can counter this by establishing the rush. Their run blocking has improved as the season has progressed, and Bucky Irving looked healthy last week. The Cowboys have been poor against the run, so Irving’s great running will keep the pressure off Mayfield.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys also struggled offensively for a long stretch, but that hasn’t been the case the past two weeks. Cooper Rush has performed well, averaging 25 points in his previous two contests. The Buccaneers don’t have the best talent at cornerback, so some might expect him to continue to thrive.

I wouldn’t be bullish about his chances. Rush has gone against two of the worst defenses in the NFL when he took on the Bengals and Panthers. While the Buccaneers have some issues, they also have Todd Bowles, who tends to dismantle bad or young quarterbacks. Dating back to last year when the defense first declined, the Buccaneers have battled the following bad quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), Spencer Rattler, Tommy DeVito, and most recently, Aidan O’Connell. In those nine games, they’ve allowed an average of 14.3 points, and they’re 7-2 straight up and against the spread.

Rush won’t be able to turn to Rico Dowdle either. The Buccaneers are one of the best teams when it comes to stopping the run, so Dowdle won’t run nearly as well as he’s been able to the past two weeks.

RECAP: The primary angle here is that the Cowboys have Rush, and the Buccaneers have Bowles, who often debacles bad and young quarterbacks. Tampa Bay’s defense can be leaky otherwise, but it’s often a great unit versus the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. As stated earlier, the Buccaneers are 7-2 straight up and against the spread against bad quarterbacks dating back to the beginning of 2023.

I’m going to side with the Buccaneers for that reason, but I don’t love this spread. This line is a bit too high, but the matchup favors the Buccaneers too much for me to not side with them. I also have to point out that the Cowboys are coming off a win, which makes them an automatic fade because bad teams have issues sustaining success.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Baker Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs, and Antoine Winfield all missed Wednesday’s practice, but I wouldn’t read anything into that because the Buccaneers have been resting a bunch of their players early in the practice week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tristan Wirfs will play, while Antonine Winfield will not. I still like the Buccaneers a good deal.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Mike Evans over receiving yards looks most appealing. The Cowboys have given up a ton of yardage to opposing No. 1 outside receivers lately, and Evans has been hot. The best number is over 78.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

We’re going to throw in the Evans receiving prop into a parlay at BetMGM, which has a 20-percent profit boost on parlays available right now. The other legs in this parlay will be Jake Ferguson over 36.5 receiving yards, CeeDee Lamb over 73.5 receiving yards, and Rachaad White over 17.5 receiving yards. In addition to struggling against No. 1 receivers, the Cowboys struggle against receiving backs, and White might get more work than usual because Cade Otton is out. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers surrender lots of production to slot receivers and tight ends. This $25 parlay pays $262.50 at BetMGM with the 20-percent boost.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We might be able to get a viable -3.5 later today. Sharp money seems to be coming in on Dallas.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Whatever sharp money appeared to be on the Cowboys is gone. Dallas was eliminated from the playoffs, so it’s difficult to imagine the team being very motivated. The best line is Buccaneers -4 -110 at BetMGM and BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Decent action on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 79% (166,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 141-98 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Bay, or should I say Green Gay because I once again am not allowed to broadcast a game involving my Philadelphia Eagles. I’m the big kahuna at this company, so why aren’t the network heads allowing me to broadcast nothing but games involving my Philadelphia Eagles? It’s almost like they think I’m sort of joke, but I can’t be because Mother says I’m special. I still feel like I’m missing out on all the action. If only Mother would just give me an allowance so I didn’t have to work anymore! Guys, what do you think? Should Mother give me an allowance so I don’t have to work anymore?

Emmitt: Thanks, Dark Cecil. As a father or two kid, I am a big pro opponent of allowance to kid. In fact, I just sented a raven with 100 gold dragon coin to my bastard son Emmitt Snow Jr. who living beyond the Great Wall of China. He say he have sexual with ginger, and I very confusion about how he becomed a spice sexual, but whatever float your boot.

Reilly: Emmitt, I think he meant gingers, as in people with red hair who have no souls.

Tollefson: Reilly, you’re right on the money about red heads having no souls. Of all the redheaded women I’ve captured and enslaved, none have shown any passion for me while cooking and cleaning naked. You’d think they’d crack a smile once in a while, but no, never. These are soulless demons.

Reilly: Tolly, I’m now glad that Mother told me to stay away from women because I may have talked to one of these soulless demons, and she may have convinced me to sell my precious Nick Foles bobblehead collection. Speaking of soulless demons, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I’m the first to report that Brett Favre ate peanut butter out of Aaron Rodgers’ rear end. This is a great report that I only I could have uncovered. But now, we are now joined by not one, but two foreign leaders. I understand that you two are in a war. I also feel like both of you have been on here before individually, but I’m not sure about that, and I don’t even really care.

Vladimir Zelensky: Ahh yes, please care, I neeeed more moonneeey please! I svear I no going to launder it to Biden anymore pleaseeee!

Vladimir Putin: Shut up or I vill break you. I here negotiate peace. Give me your country and I vill give you nasing. You make peace, yes?

Charissa Thompson: I wasn’t really paying attention because I’m just too good of a reporter to do that, but that sounds like a good deal to me.

Vladimir Zelensky: Pleeease, I give you Ukraine if you give me mooonneeyy. I already spent all US money on mink coat for vife and fancy sveatshirt for me. Please Putin, neeeed more moooneeeyy!

Vladimir Putin: You no get money! I have nuke! Give me Ookraineoo or I vill break you!

Reilly: What does this have to do with football? Get this rubbish out of here. We have bigger fish to fry here, like asking the network executives to broadcast games with my Philadelphia Eagles. I’m the big kahuna, after all! Camel Toe Harry, do you I agree that I’m the big kahuna?

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I’m deeply sorry I was drunk the past two weeks. I grew up in a middle-class family, and I’ve been unburdened by what has been. I promise to lay off the drinks for at least one more week. Second, I’m hearing all this talk about a big kahuna, and I have to say, as someone who grew up in a middle-class family, I’m very interested in this big kahuna. My father always taught me while growing up in a middle-class family that a woman’s place is beside a strong man whom she can sleep with as she rises to the top. So, what do you say, Kevin? Can I ride the big kahuna all the way to the top?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, if anyone is the big kahuna here, it’s me, OK, I’m not just the big kahuna, I’m the biggest kahuna there is, and no one has ever seen anything like it, everyone always comes up to me and asks, “Trump, did you know that you are the biggest kahuna that anyone has ever seen?” and I always say, frankly, I knew I was a big kahuna, but I didn’t know I was the biggest kahuna, but you learn something new every day, which is actually false, now maybe its true for stupid people like Kamala, and believe me, Kamala is the stupidest person anyone has ever seen, and no one has ever seen anything like it because she’s a total fraud and a total disgrace, but for the smarter people, they don’t learn anything new on any day because they already knew everything, and believe me, I know most things, so I haven’t learn anything new in a long, long time, we’re talking billions and billions of days that I haven’t learned anything, billions and billions of days, no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, IT’S INTERESTING THAT YOU SAY THAT BECAUSE MY CHILDHOOD FRIEND, A CHRISTMAS TREE WITH ORANGE JUICE FOR EYES AND A PIANO FOR FEET, HASN’T LEARNED ANYTHING IN 500,000 OF YOUR EARTH YEARS.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, did I hear that right? Did Camel Toe Harry just proposition me for sexual relations? It’s a good thing that she’s not a soulless demon ginger, right? Should I do it, New Daddy? Or should I heed Mother’s warnings and stay away from women who want to corrupt me?

Jay Cutler: Did you just say something about having sex with ginger? I didn’t know you were a spice sexual, kid.

Reilly: No, I meant a ginger as in redhead, but that’s not even what Camel Toe Harry is unless she’s hiding her true hair color!

Jay Cutler: Pretty weird that you’re a spice sexual, but I’m not hear to judge.

Reilly: New Daddy, you’re not paying attention! I said it’s a good thing I won’t be having sexual relations with a ginger!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about gingers, Kevin. Let’s discuss some famous gingers, Kevin. How can we not start with Ginger Spice, Kevin? Let’s chat about Amy Adams, Kevin. Then there’s Emma Stone, Kevin. What about Isla Fisher, Kevin? Care to share about Ed Sheeran, Kevin? He ruined Game of Thrones, Kevin. Speaking of, there’s Sophie Turner, Kevin. We can now segue to Reba McEntire, Kevin. And now we can talk about Ruper Grint, Kevin. I imagine that’s the ginger you want to boink, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, THE JOKE IS ON YOU ANYWAY BECAUSE MOTHER PROBABLY WOULDN’T ALLOW ME TO BOINK ANYONE ANYWAY BECAUSE THEY WOULD CORRUPT THIS INNOCENT FLOWER! We’ll be back after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers were incredibly impressive on both sides of the ball in their Sunday night victory over the Seahawks. They ran extremely well on the Seahawks, who had been dominant versus the rush in recent weeks. Josh Jacobs trampled them, and he could treat the Saints similarly.

New Orleans doesn’t stand much of a chance against Jacobs. The Saints are 20th in run defense EPA, so Jacobs projects extremely well. Jacobs’ great running will set up “No Cookie” Jordan Love in favorable down-and-distance situations, which will be a nice boost against the Saints, who generate an average amount of pressure.

Despite the Saints’ pass rush being solid, the team still can’t stop the pass because of injuries and departures in the secondary. The Packers have so many talented weapons for New Orleans to handle.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Packers have so many talented weapons that their fourth receiver would be the Saints’ top threat right now. Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill were already injured, and now the Saints likely won’t have Alvin Kamara because of an injury he suffered against the Redskins.

I don’t really know how the Saints are going to move the ball on the Packers. Spencer Rattler, who should take back over for Jake Haener, doesn’t have quality protection or any viable weapons. The Packers generate a good deal of pressure for a team that seldom blitzes, so their pass rush will be able to harass Rattler consistently.

The Packers are also stout against the run, so I wouldn’t count on much from Kendre Miller. While Miller might be a quality runner, he doesn’t offer the receiving ability that Kamara can bring, so it’s hard to envision the Saints having any sort of success on this side of the ball.

RECAP: I still can’t believe the Saints had a back-door cover last week, especially afer they scored only 14 points against the injury-ravaged Giants defense the prior week. Rattler was responsible for the comeback, so there might be more optimism with the Saints now that he’s slated to start for them.

I wouldn’t be too bullish on New Orleans. We’ve seen Rattler struggle before. In his three starts, he lost by double digits against the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Chargers. None of those teams are a Group A opponent like the Packers, who boast a top-12 EPA defense. Backup quarterbacks have a horrible track record against top-12 defenses, and Rattler has the third-worst EPA of any quarterback who has thrown 60 or more passes dating back to the start of 2023.

I’d love the Packers under normal circumstances, but I’m worried about the spot. They’re coming off a statement victory against the Seahawks, and they have to battle the Vikings in a huge revenge game next week. They could be flat.

I’m still going to be on Green Bay because gauging motivation is very difficult, and the talent disparity in this game is impossible to ignore. However, the Packers have sleepwalked through some late-season games before – remember their loss to Tommy DeVito? – so I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line keeps rising. It opened -13.5, and it’s -14.5 in some places. I wanted to lock in -14, but I don’t feel comfortable doing so without seeing at least one injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: Alvin Kamara has all but been ruled out, but there’s actually a chance Chris Olave returns this week after being limited twice. I can’t see myself betting either side.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Chris Olave has been ruled out in addition to Alvin Kamara, and it’s looking like Marquez Valdes-Scantling might be sidelined as well.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Nothing has changed for me regarding this game. If you believe the Packers will put forth effort, definitely bet them. If, however, the Packers don’t show up like the Bills failed to do so versus the Patriots yesterday, then this could be a close Green Bay victory.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Saints have major problems dealing with left wide receivers. Christian Watson plays on the left in three-receiver sets. He also has some major upside. The best line is over 47.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to add Watson’s receiving yards to a same-game parlay with Jayden Reed over 44.5 receiving yards, Juwan Johnson over 30.5 receiving yards, and Dante Pettis over 16.5 receiving yards. The Saints are also poor against slot receivers. The Packers tend to give up lots of production to tight ends. As for Pettis, he saw five targets last week, and all the top receivers are injured. This $25 parlay pays $270.44 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints are missing all of their key players, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling. There’s no sharp action on this game. I still don’t have a strong feeling either way. This line has moved to -14.5 in some places, but you can still get -14 -110 at BetMGM and Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Packers could be flat off their win against the Seahawks. They battle the Vikings after this.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -13.5.

Computer Model: Packers -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 78% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 41-24 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Matt LaFleur is 57-39 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -13.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 31 degrees. Light wind.