NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
2024 NFL Picks: 117-109-9 (-$3,210)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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Week 15 Analysis: We had a nice rebound in Week 15. It was good, but not great, but it could have easily been great. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

49ers, 3 units (loss): I vowed to be better after a dreadful Week 14, and I immediately made an idiotic pick. I did much more evaluation after this selection, and I liked the results.

Redskins, 4 units (loss): This was a bad beat, and a truly awful beat if you had -7 because the NFL admitted that they made a mistake at the end where the Saints should have run out of time before throwing their final touchdown. The Redskins were up 17-0 and just stopped scoring. They committed so many dumb defensive penalties to set up scores for New Orleans. For example, they forced the Saints into a punt, but an illegal-hands-to-the-face penalty gave the Saints a free first down. The same thing happened with a roughing-the-passer penalty. Also, the Redskins dropped a touchdown (by Terry McLaurin), missed a field goal, and then dropped an interception that would have preserved the cover. We should have won this one.

Jets, 3 units (win): We got lucky here because if the Jaguars didn’t have three timeouts at the end, the Jets would have settled for a field goal, and we would have just gotten a push. Still, it was nice to get a little luck on our side for once.

Colts, 3 units (loss): OK, what the hell? The Colts, as 4.5-point dogs, were up 13-7. They scored a touchdown to go up 20-7 in the third quarter. Except, their idiot running back dropped the ball before crossing the goal line, negating the touchdown. And then, the Colts still had possession, up 13-7, but Michael Pittman Jr. lost a fumble to give the Broncos a score. And then, they ran this stupid trick play where their receiver threw a pick-six. It was difficult to stomach this loss. The Colts outgained the Broncos, 310-193, and they averaged 1.1 more yards per play. Denver had no business covering the -4.5, let alone winning outright.

Cardinals, 4 units (win): We had a scare in this game when Kyler Murray left the game with an injury in the third quarter, but he returned after missing a few snaps.

Packers, 3 units (win): It wa nice to have a pick that was never in doubt!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: If you’re wondering why the Chargers failed to do anything offensively against the Buccaneers once establishing a 17-10 lead, Justin Herbert’s ankle injury would explain it. Herbert tweaked his ankle against the Buccaneers and didn’t look quite right after that. He’s expected to be limited in practice this week, although this is a limited work week anyway, due to the NFL’s asinine decision to have its workforce play games on just three days of rest.

Herbert would normally have a tough matchup, but the Broncos have injury issues of their own. They were already missing No. 2 cornerback Riley Moss. They could be down Patrick Surtain II as well. He also got hurt this past Sunday. He left the game and then returned, but got hurt again. It might be tough for him to play on such a short week, which means Denver might be down its top two cornerbacks. If Herbert’s ankle feels better, he’ll be able to take full advantage of this like Jameis Winston did with Moss’ absence in a recent Monday night affair.

Herbert will have to be on point in this game because it’s not like he’ll be able to lean on the run. That would have been possible with J.K. Dobbins, but Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal aren’t providing any explosive plays at the position.

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix threw three touchdowns last week, but he did not play well. He was also responsible for three interceptions, and he wasn’t putting up any points until the Colts began self-destructing.

The Chargers usually have an excellent defense, so Nix will face similar difficulties in this contest. It didn’t seem as though the Chargers had a strong defense last week, but they may have been distracted with a Thursday game on the horizon. I have to believe that their secondary will perform better this week.

The Chargers’ ability to stop the run may also improve, but that would depend on Denzel Perryman’s availability. San Angeles’ once-solid run defense has vanished because of Perryman’s absence. Perryman seemed like he was close to playing last week, however, so perhaps he’ll make his return for this big game.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

I imagine most may think that these teams or even, or perhaps the Broncos are slightly superior. After all, most of the public money is on Denver, which has the better record. I do not think the public is correct, however. The Broncos are perhaps the most overrated team in the NFL. They’re 9-5, and yet most of their wins have been against bad teams.

I will reference this multiple times this week, so I’ll explain it now: I’ve divided all of the NFL teams into five groups: Groups A through F. Group A is comprised of the elite teams, while Group F is for the worst teams. Six of Denver’s nine wins have come against Groups D and F. Their other three wins have come against Group C: Buccaneers, Jets, and Colts. In those games, the Buccaneers were flat off their revenge game against the Lions; the Jets were looking ahead to flying to London to take on the Vikings; and the Colts shot themselves in the foot repeatedly, all while outgaining the Broncos by more than 100 total yards and 1.1 yards per play.

I have the Broncos in Group C and the Chargers in Group B. The Chargers are coming off a dreadful game against the Buccaneers, but I believe they were looking ahead to this contest. I love getting a good team off an embarrassing defeat, and it’s great that Jim Harbaugh is 11-4 against the spread off a loss if you exclude 2014 when he had one foot out the door in San Francisco.

Despite what happened last week, this spread hasn’t moved off -3. This is Vegas begging for the public to back the Broncos. Yet, the Chargers seem like such an obvious play. I’ll be on them heavily. assuming that Herbert doesn’t look like he’ll be severely hampered by his ankle injury.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert’s ankle continues to be a concern for me. He was limited on Tuesday, but practiced fully on Wednesday. I don’t know what to make of it, and I’m concerned enough to not bet the Chargers heavily. I also don’t like that the Chargers will be missing a couple of secondary players in Cam Hart and Elijah Molden sidelined, though the Broncos won’t have Riley Moss. The sharps are on Denver. I’m going to drop the unit count to two.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I like Courtland Sutton’s over receiving yards. Sutton is the only reliable receiver in Denver’s offense, and the Chargers, who allow plenty of production to No. 1 receivers, have two injuries in their secondary. The best number is over 62.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw in the Sutton over receiving yards prop with Ladd McConkey over receiving yards, Javonte Williams over receiving yards, and Stone Smartt over receiving yards. The Broncos have issues defending slot receivers and tight ends, so I like McConkey and Smartt. Meanwhile, Jaleel McLaughlin is out, so Williams will handle all the receiving work out of the backfield. This $25 parlay pays $259.63 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ladd McConkey and Denzel Perryman are both active, which is huge. I would like the Chargers for much more than two units, but we don’t know how Justin Herbert’s ankle will be. The sharps are on both sides of this game, taking the Broncos at +3 and the Chargers at -2.5. The best line is -2.5 -115 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Broncos -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The Broncos are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (209,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Broncos have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Sean Payton is 14-5 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Jim Harbaugh is 11-4 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes’ status is obviously in doubt in this game in the wake of his high ankle sprain. Andy Reid said that Mahomes could have returned if needed, but I would like to call BS on that one because Mahomes could barely walk as he limped off the field upon suffering that injury. However, it should be noted that Deepak Chona, a sports medical analyst, said that he expects Mahomes to play on this high ankle sprain because Mahomes did so before, albeit in the Super Bowl.

Even if Mahomes is sidelined, the Chiefs project well against Houston’s defense. The Texans have been poor in two areas this year. The first is against the run. Isiah Pacheco should be getting better each week, and he’ll finally be needed here with Carson Wentz or a hobbled Mahomes at the helm.

The other area in which the Texans have struggled is when it comes to missed tackles. They are fourth in the NFL in missed tackles this year, so Mahomes dumping the ball off on short tosses to his weapons could prove to be effective, especially when targeting tight ends because the Texans have been poor against tight ends this year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans aren’t dealing with major injuries on this side of the ball, save for Stefon Diggs. However, they have their own glaring issues on offense.

The Texans have struggled with poor play-calling all year. They’re first in early-down runs. When they battle a team that can’t stop the run, this is great. However, they often put C.J. Stroud in long-yardage situations when going up against a strong rush defense. That’s exactly what the Chiefs have. Kansas City will be able to limit Joe Mixon, meaning Stroud will be going up against a dangerous pass rush on third-and-long all the time.

Stroud won’t be shut out or anything, however. The Chiefs have some major liabilities in their pass defense. Nico Collins will be able to make some big catches. There will also be an opportunity for the Texans to utilize Dalton Schultz because Kansas City has been very weak against tight ends, but Houston hasn’t used Schultz as much this year for some reason.

RECAP: It’s odd that a 13-1 team would have more to play for than a 9-5 team, but that’s the case in this game. The Chiefs are still fighting for the No. 1 seed, while the Texans have clinched their division and have no upward mobility. They are stuck with the No. 4 seed. They could actually sit their starters the next three weeks, and it wouldn’t affect them at all.

The Chiefs may not have Mahomes, but that could be seen as a positive for this game alone. Good teams tend to rally around backup quarterbacks, and Wentz is a premium reserve. Despite this, there was a six-point line shift toward Houston with the advance spread being Kansas City -4. This is way too much of an overreaction, especially when the team receiving those six points has nothing at stake.

I like the Chiefs to rally around Wentz and win this game. The Texans are a mess anyway with their poor blocking and tackling, and I don’t see that being resolved on a short work week. I’ll mark this down as TBA for now because of Mahomes returns, I won’t want to back a hobbled quarterback, even if he’s the best player in the NFL.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully, so he’s going to play. This has caused the line to go from +2.5 to -3.5. I want no part of Kansas City with Mahomes being potentially hobbled, so I’m going to change my pick to Houston. However, I don’t really want to bet the Texans because this is a meaningless game for them as a result of being locked into the No. 4 seed.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Texans have allowed big performances to every tight end they’ve battled recently. In fact, the past two tight ends they’ve gone against have caught a combined 16 passes. Patrick Mahomes won’t be able to run as much this week, so he’ll target Travis Kelce more than usual. The best number is over 49.5 receiving yards -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

We’re throwing the Kelce receiving prop into a same-game parlay at FanDuel because they have the better payout. The other legs are Dalton Schultz over 36.5 receiving yards, Joe Mixon over 21.5 receiving yards, and Noah Gray over 22.5 receiving yards. Like the Texans, the Chiefs also struggle against tight ends, so both Schultz and Gray make sense. Meanwhile, Mixon’s receiving workload has increased ever since Stefon Diggs went down for the year. This $25 parlay pays $258.76 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report, so he’ll play. I don’t trust him to be 100 percent, however, so Houston would be tempting if this game meant anything to them. I don’t plan on betting this game, but I’d side with the Texans if I had to bet either team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Texans. The sharps are on the Chiefs, although at +3 or lower. The best line is Texans +3.5 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Texans have nothing to play for.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Houston: 64% (138,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 97-25 SU, 64-56 ATS (50-43 ATS when not favored by double digits.) ???

Chiefs are 13-31 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Sunny, 35 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 37-33 ATS through 14 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Falcons -4

Bengals -5

Vikings -7

Redskins -7.5

Steelers +5.5

Cowboys +2.5

The public won their top three plays, and four of their top six. The public is now 41-35.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Jaguars -1.5

Bills -14.5

49ers +1.5

Broncos +3

Packers -13.5

Two double-digit favorites, one road favorite, and two underdogs. Nice variety this week!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers have two major injuries that will impact the result of this game, with one on both sides of the ball. Offensively, George Pickens’ status is crucial. Pickens has missed the past couple of games with a hamstring issue. We’ve seen the offense capsize without him, and understandably so. He was the only downfield threat, so without him, Russell Wilson has been forced into utilizing lesser players like Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin.

Having Pickens will be so important against the Ravens. Baltimore’s pass defense has been notoriously horrible this season, and Pickens can expose their weakness. If Pickens isn’t available, Wilson won’t be able to throw very well into the Ravens’ secondary.

If Pickens is out, the Steelers won’t be able to move the chains at all. Their running game will be defunct against the Ravens, who have one of the top ground defenses in the NFL.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The defensive injury for the Steelers is to T.J. Watt. The elite edge rusher got hurt against the Eagles. Our latest update on him is that Mike Tomlin said that the “door is ajar” for Watt to play this week.

I don’t need to tell you how crucial Watt is for any matchup because he’s one of the best defensive players in the NFL. However, he’s so important for battling the Ravens because the talented edge players are how the Steelers can keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket. Pittsburgh has built its defense to contain Jackson, and it’s had so much success doing so. The Steelers won’t have that same sort of success without Watt.

If Watt is in, I don’t think the Ravens will accomplish much offensively despite their high seasonal rankings. They won’t be able to run very well with Derrick Henry, and Jackson will struggle as well. If Watt is out, things will certainly open up for Jackson.

RECAP: We need to know the status of two significant Steelers before we can properly handicap this game. Pickens is essential to Pittsburgh being able to throw the ball downfield and attack Baltimore’s greatest weakness. Watt is vital to the defense being able to contain Baltimore’s top strength, which is obviously Jackson on the move.

If Pickens and Watt both play, I’ll be on the Steelers. This spread is far too high with Baltimore being an overrated team. The Ravens have some severe issues, and they’ve only blown out three teams this year, so I would be shocked by a touchdown-plus victory.

On the other hand, if Pickens and Watt are out or severely limited, it’ll be tough to back the Steelers. If Pittsburgh can’t throw the ball or stop Jackson from scrambling, how can it possibly compete with Baltimore?

I’m going to pencil in the Steelers for now, but I’ll have updates later in the week. Check back soon, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: George Pickens was DNP on Tuesday and Wednesday. T.J. Watt was DNP on Tuesday, but limited on Wednesday. We’ll see what the final injury report says, but it’s looking like this may be a zero-unit pick on Baltimore.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Pat Freiermuth’s production has increased ever since George Pickens got hurt. Pickens is out again, and Freiermuth has an easy matchup against Baltimore’s poor defense against tight ends. The best number is over 35.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

We’re parlaying the Freiermuth over receiving yards at FanDuel once again even though that line is over 36.5 at FanDuel. The other legs in the parlay are Calvin Austin over 37.5 receiving yards, Zay Flowers over 60.5 receiving yards, an Isaiah Likely over 24.5 receiving yards. George Pickens is out, so Austin looks good. Meanwhile, the Ravens have some injuries at receiver, so Flowers and Likely are logical plays. This $25 parlay pays $243.38 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The good news for the Steelers is that T.J. Watt will play, so they’ll be able to contain Lamar Jackson again. The bad news is that George Pickens will be sidelined once again, so the offense will be dreadful. I’m going to side with the Steelers, but for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: T.J. Watt will play, while George Pickens will not. The Steelers will be able to contain Lamar Jackson, but how will they be able to score with no downfield threat? I still lean toward Pittsburgh, but I can’t bet either side. This sharps are on the Ravens for what it’s worth. The best line is +7 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -5.

Computer Model: Ravens -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Sharp action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 64% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Mike Tomlin is 63-35 ATS as an underdog.

Russell Wilson is 34-16 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 36-19 ATS as an underdog.

Lamar Jackson is 12-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This entire section is dedicated to a very “special” person named Kyle Jaber. He replied to me when I commented on someone’s post about AMC:

Most of my tweets are just spam links to this site, which is the goal. Why would I want interaction on Twitter when I can have it here on this site? A simpleton like Kyle wouldn’t understand that, of course.

I love how that’s his insult. “Go work at the tire shop!” What’s wrong with working at the tire shop? Just by saying that, Kyle exposed himself as some sort of trustfund baby with rich parents. He likely hasn’t done a single day of hard work in his life. Instead, his parents have likely gotten him a corporate job he didn’t deserve.

The funny thing is that I made money interacting with this idiot.

I quote tweeted his tire post:

Suffer the consequences? Uh oh! What could that possibly mean? Is he going to tattle on me to his rich parents and demand that I never get a cushy corporate job like him?

Also, what does he mean, “What’s an AMC?” He replied to my comment where I bashed AMC. This guy is even dumber than I thought.

Oh, and I should note that he blocked me, and yet he was the one saying “p***y b***h gets sensitive.”

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I’m typing this around 1 p.m., and I’m glad I didn’t do so an hour earlier because the Browns announced that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start at around 12:05 Eastern.

This is a great decision. Jameis Winston is much better than Thompson-Robinson, despite what we saw during his interception parade last week. Thompson-Robinson is a truly atrocious quarterback. Among all quarterbacks who have attempted 60 or more passes since the beginning of 2023, Thompson-Robinson has the second-worst EPA, beating only another Browns quarterback, XFL legend Phillip Walker.

So, why is this a great move? Because it allows the Browns to tank for a better draft pick! Winston could have torched Cincinnati’s atrocious defense. Thompson-Robinson is way too inept to do that. He’ll make some nice plays, particularly with his legs, and Jerome Ford will pick up some nice gains, but Cleveland will be very limited offensively for the most part.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Browns have a great defense, but one area in which they’re sub par is defending the deep pass. We saw this in the Monday night battle when Bo Nix completed several long throws to various receivers.

I don’t need to tell you that this can be exploited by the Bengals. Despite Cincinnati’s record, Joe Burrow is playing at an unreal level. Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins have generated such amazing numbers since the trio was reunited on the field earlier this year when Higgins returned from injury. There were some turnovers last week, but that’s unlikely to transpire again.

I didn’t mention Chase Brown, who has been tremendous as well. Brown has a tough matchup against Cleveland’s stout run defense, but he has proven to be a dynamic receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: My selection was going to be based on what the Browns did at quarterback. In the case of Winston starting, I would have liked the Browns to bounce back from a double-digit defeat. Cleveland has played a bunch of close contests with Winston. The past two games were blowout losses, but they were against Group B teams. This is easier competition than what the Browns have seen since their Monday night affair against the Broncos. They hung tight with Denver, which is a Group C team like the Bengals. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has just two victories of more than seven against non-Group F teams: They won by 10 against the Daniel Jones-led Giants and Titans. That New York game was a three-point affair before a garbage touchdown at the end, while Will Levis imploded last week. Granted, Winston could have done the same, but after last week’s disastrous result, I thought he’d be more careful with the football.

However, the Browns made the right move by benching Winston in favor of Thompson-Robinson. Because of this, I’ll be on the Bengals. Thompson-Robinson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, as detailed above, so the Browns are transitioning to a Group F team with him. Three of Cincinnati’s four battles against Group F teams were victories of seven or more, with the lone exception being the Week 1 loss to the Patriots when the Bengals showed up drunk to the game.

This line has moved from -7 to -7.5 in the wake of the Thompson-Robinson news, but that’s not enough. This line should be -10 at the very least, so I will be betting a few units on Cincinnati.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m considering this as my December NFL Pick of the Month. I usually don’t take favorites as my Pick of the Month, but this has been a year of the favorite. My main point of emphasis here is that the Browns may quit like the Giants did versus the Buccaneers several weeks ago. The Giants benched their superior quarterback, so what exactly do the Browns have to play for with Dorian Thompson-Robinson?

PLAYER PROPS: The last time the Browns faced a strong rushing attack, they gave up 200 yards on the ground to the Saints. Chase Brown just rushed for 90 yards against a tough Titans run defense, so I like his chances here, especially with Cleveland likely mailing it in because of the quarterback downgrade. The best number is over 74.5 rushing yards -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m pretty sure the Bengals will be the Pick of the Month. The only thing that worries me is that the Bengals had three illnesses, but one of those illnesses was to Sheldon Rankins, who has had some sort of an illness for a while now. Also, this line moved from -7.5 to -9 when Myles Garrett was downgraded in Thursday’s practice, but Garrett will play. Will the line drop as a result to negate the move? Hopefully we can get an -8.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in this pick at 1:25 a.m. on Sunday. Some books have moved to -9.5, so I wanted to lock in a clean -9, which you can still get at BetMGM. This is my December NFL Pick of the Month.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked this one in last night because sharp money has come in on Cincinnati to move the line to -10 in most books. You can still get -9.5 -110 at DraftKings though. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -6.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Decent action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 84% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Browns have won 9 of the last 12 meetings, excluding a game where the Browns sat their starters.

Joe Burrow is 43-22 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 32 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions suffered a number of injuries on defense last week. They also lost David Montgomery indefinitely. This one doesn’t sting as much because Jahmyr Gibbs will get more touches, which can be seen as a positive.

Detroit’s offensive line is still intact, so it’ll blast open huge running lanes for Gibbs. The Bears have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Gibbs should have a huge game. Gibbs was on track for a big performance against Chicago on Thanksgiving, but fumbled inside the 5-yard line, then barely saw any action in the second half. He’ll be looking to redeem himself.

Gibbs’ great running will open play-action opportunities for Jared Goff. The Bears can clamp down on top receivers, but they allow plenty of production to tight ends, so a healthier Sam LaPorta figures to thrive.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: As for the Detroit defensive injuries, the team lost Alim McNeill and Carlton Davis, which were two big pieces of the stop unit. McNeill was a terrior in the interior of the defensive line, while Davis had been enjoyed a great bounce-back season as one of the starting cornerbacks. They’ll sorely be missed.

However, the Lions may not miss them very much in this game. The Bears have no offensive coordinator because their interim offensive coordinator was promoted to interim head coach, which has predictably led to two games in which Chicago has been completely discombobulated offensively. The Bears made tons of mistakes against the Vikings, and that’ll continue on a short week.

One area in which the Bears can succeed is throws to Keenan Allen because the Lions give up lots of production to the slot. However, Detroit can clamp down on the run, so D’Andre Swift won’t get anything on the ground, putting Caleb Williams in unfavorable down-and-distance situations.

RECAP: I loved the prospect of backing the Lions at -7.5, which was the advance spread, and then at -7, which was the line on Monday. The Bears were blown out at Minnesota, so I thought the spread would move back up to -7.5. Instead, it has fallen to -6.5. What gives?

I’m not sure, but I’ll take it as a gift. The Bears have no real head coach and no offensive coordinator, so they don’t stand a chance against superior teams. They were blown out at San Francisco and Minnesota, and I’ll be shocked if they’re not blown out again this week.

It’d be one thing if the Lions weren’t focused, but they will be. They’re coming off a loss in a marquee game. Dan Campbell has done well in these spots, owning a 5-1 ATS record after a loss as a favorite. That’s obviously a small sample size, but backing great teams following a defeat is a winning strategy.

One last thing is that the weather will be discussed because Goff is often far worse outdoors. The weather is projected to be 28 degrees. However, it’ll be sunny and not windy, so I don’t think that will impact Goff very much.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I got a scare when I looked at the injury report and saw that 10 Lions players were DNP on Wednesday, but eight of those were for rest. The Bears, conversely, have two offensive linemen with DNP tags related to concussions.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m looking to bet Jahmyr Gibbs over rushing yards. David Montgomery is out, while Chicago’s run defense sucks. The best number is over 89.5 rushing yards -115 at ESPNBet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Frank Ragnow isn’t on the final injury report, so I love the Lions and the Jahmyr Gibbs prop. Conversely, the Bears might be down two offensive linemen. I know the Lions have suffered several injuries, but they may get back stud safety Ifeatu Melifonwu back on the field for the first time all year. Also, Jaylon Johnson was DNP on Friday with an illness. His absence would be very painful for Chicago’s defense.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking this in at 3:25 a.m. I was hoping to see some movement to -6, but some books have gone to -7. A couple of books still have -6.5 -110: BetMGM and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Emmanuel Moseley is returning this week, which helps a bit with Detroit’s injuries. This is another game in which we locked in last night that moved toward our side. Some sharp money on Detroit has moved this line to -7 in most places. You can still get -6.5 -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions will look to rebound off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.

Computer Model: Lions -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Plenty of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 88% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Dan Campbell is 5-1 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Lions -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: So much for Bryce Young redeeming himself. Young had been hot heading into Week 15, but the Cowboys completely dismantled him. He was frazzled under pressure and made numerous mistakes as a result.

Young might be able to bounce back this week. Micah Parsons terrorized him last week, but the Cardinals have no such pass rusher on their roster. While Dallas is No. 1 in pressure rate, Arizona is fifth-worst. With a cleaner pocket, Young should be able to keep the chains moving.

The Panthers also figure to have success on the ground. Zach Charbonnet trampled them a couple of weeks ago, and Chuba Hubbard, who has enjoyed some great performances this year, figures to do the same.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, James Conner certainly won his fantasy owners their playoff games last week. Conner was terrific against the Patriots, scoring two touchdowns in the second half.

Conner has another great matchup this week. The Panthers are horrible against the run, ranking way below Arizona in that regard. Only three teams are worse against ground attacks than Carolina.

Conner’s great running will set up Kyler Murray in easy passing opportunities. Murray will have great matchups across the board. The Panthers have allowed some big games to No. 1 receivers this year, and they’ve been horrendous against tight ends. Marvin Harrison Jr. figures to rebound from last week’s dud outing, while Trey McBride will continue to dominate.

RECAP: We were big on the Cardinals last week because they were underrated as a result of their schedule. Arizona had battled no teams worse than Group C all year, so the Patriots were the easiest foe they had seen all season. Combine that with their desperation to win following three losses, and the Cardinals seemed like a very easy play.

The Cardinals aren’t coming off a loss this time, but they can’t afford to lose if they want to keep pace with the two teams ahead of them in the division. Thus, I think the effort will be high, so I believe they’ll win this game. The Panthers are another Group D team that was exposed last week by the Cowboys. They were able to keep games close against unfocused opponents for a stretch, but when a team actually prepared for them, they were dismantled. Arizona will be ready for the Panthers just like Dallas was, so I like the Cardinals enough for a multi-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s early in the week, but there’s sharp money coming in on Arizona. The sharps haven’t done well this year, but it’s still nice to be on the same side as them.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet on James Conner last week and will do the same this week. Carolina’s run defense is atrocious, and Conner is getting more of a workload in these must-win games. The best number is over 82.5 rushing yards -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Paris Johnson is out, which is a bummer because he’s Arizona’s best offensive lineman. I wasn’t worried about it until Friday evening when I saw that left guard Evan Brown was downgraded to DNP at the end of the week with a neck injury. If Brown is out, the Cardinals might be missing the entire left side of their offensive line. That said, the Cardinals have some nice depth on the offensive line, so I don’t anticipate moving off Arizona. In fact, this might be a higher player on the Cardinals because the flu is apparently circulating through the Carolina locker room, with Ikem Ekwonu and Robert Hunt missing practice at the end of the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m hearing that there is some sort of illness floating around Arizona’s locker room. I don’t know how serious it is, but I’m going to downgrade this play from three to two units. There’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is the standard -5 -110 found at BetMGM and BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -4.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Plenty of money on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 73% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cardinals -4.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 40 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Josh Allen is the MVP frontrunner right now, but Saquon Barkley was considered to be following the initial matchup between these teams. Barkley had a great performance on a Thursday night, gashing the Redskins for 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

There’s no reason to think that this game will go any differently. Barkley has a tremendous matchup against the Redskins, who are dead last in run defense EPA. Barkley is even well rested from last week because he didn’t have much work, so he’ll ready to have explosive plays against Washington.

Barkley’s running will continue to make things easier for Jalen Hurts. DeVonta Smith is back at full strength, so it’ll be difficult for the Redskins to fully contain Philadelphia’s aerial assault, especially given that they’ll have to concentrate on Barkley.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins didn’t nearly have as much offensive success in that aforementioned Thursday matchup. The stats don’t look too bad for Jayden Daniels, but keep in mind that much of Daniels’ production came in garbage time. Daniels had severe issues moving the chains otherwise.

It must be noted that Daniels wasn’t fully healthy for that game because of a rib injury. He’s fine now, so he should be better in the rematch. However, this is still an incredibly difficult for matchup for him and his receivers. Philadelphia’s secondary is excellent, and Daniels won’t have much running room because the Eagles understand how to deal with mobile quarterbacks.

Daniels won’t get much help from his running game. Brian Robinson mustered just 3.9 yards per carry in the initial matchup, which was even better than expected because the Eagles have one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: The Redskins are a good team, but they haven’t exactly been tested this year. They’ve battled just three teams in Groups A and B all season. All three games were losses. They lost by eight to the Eagles, seven to the Ravens, and one to the Steelers. The rest of their games have been against Group C or worse.

The Eagles should be able to prevail. They’re coming off a win, and they already beat the Redskins already this year, so this may seem like a poor motivational spot. However, this game is for the division. Good teams will often get up for a game if they’re told they can accomplish something great like winning their division.

It’s odd that we’re getting -3. This line opened up -3.5, but despite the action on the Eagles, this line has fallen to -3. This indicates that the sharps are on the Redskins. This doesn’t mean as much this year because the sharps have been horrible, constantly backing bad underdogs. The Redskins aren’t bad, but they are substantially worse than the Eagles, who, again, should be motivated.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kenny brought up a great point that Saquon Barkley might be limited this week based on an injury he suffered last week. Barkley was DNP on Wednesday, but only for rest purposes. Zach Ertz was DNP with a concussion.

PLAYER PROPS: I want to bet Saquon Barkley, but I need to make sure he practices fully on Friday. Update: I’ll be betting Barkley after he practiced fully on Thursday and Friday. The best number is over 94.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Saquon Barkley practiced fully on Thursday and Friday, so nothing to be worried about in that regard. I still like the Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp action coming in on the Eagles, but nothing substantial. The best line is Eagles -4 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 77% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 12 of the last 15 meetings.

Jalen Hurts is 10-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Redskins are 22-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 29 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: A few weeks ago, I posted a Mega Man battle video. Here’s another one, which is a group battle:

As someone who grew up playing Mega Man 2 nonstop, I was rooting for them in this video. ATLANTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins entered the Monday night game against the Raiders with no touchdowns and eight interceptions in the previous four games leading up to that contest. Despite the poor showings, this was a perfect opportunity for him to snap out of his horrible funk because the Raiders’ already-poor defense was going to be without Maxx Crosby.

Rather than succeeding, Cousins completely flopped. He threw an early touchdown to Drake London, but did nothing else. He was responsible for just three more points the rest of the evening, as the other five points came via the defense and special teams. Cousins was frazzled by constant pressure from a Crosby-less front, and he heaved some horrible passes to his talented weapons.

The Giants have several injuries on this side of the ball, but they can still generate a quality pass rush. Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux will be able to hound a clearly hobbled Cousins and force him into more mistakes. Cousins will want to lean on Bijan Robinson, but despite Robinson’s great numbers from Monday night, this plan didn’t even pan out very well. Also, the Giants have improved against the run lately, so Robinson isn’t even guaranteed to have a great game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Cousins will be better than his counterpart in this game, but only by default. We don’t even know who the counterpart will be because Drew Lock missed last week’s game with an injury, while Tommy DeVito exited early with a concussion. It could be Tim Boyle, who has no business playing football, whether we’re talking professionally or in the backyard with his friends.

One positive thing you can say about the Falcons is that their pass rush has improved tremendously since the bye. They had one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL prior to Week 12, but have generated a quality pass rush ever since. This is obviously significant against the Giants because New York has several injuries on the offensive line and blocks poorly as a consequence. It’ll be important for the Giants to have Lock or DeVito, both of whom can scramble effectively.

Malik Nabers should still be able to make some great players because of his supreme talent. Tyrone Tracy doesn’t project as well. The Falcons are a surprising fifth in run defense EPA.

RECAP: This line is absurdly high. The Giants obviously have major problems, but the Falcons stink. They’re a Group D team that has no business being favored by a touchdown, let alone 10 points against anyone.

Despite how bad the Giants are, they’ve been competitive against other bad teams this year. They’ve battled five teams in Group D and F, and while they’re 1-4 straight up against them, they also haven’t lost any of those games by more than seven points. Granted, three of those contests were with Daniel Jones at the helm, but the Giants were able to keep recent games against the Cowboys and Saints to seven and three points, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are horrendous. They’ve won one game since Week 9, and that was a six-point victory over the Crosby-less Raiders starting Desmond Ridder. In what world should they be expected to win by double digits?

I have great interest in betting the Giants, but I need to see who the starting quarterback will be. I’d be fine with Lock and DeVito, but I won’t have any interest if Boyle is the starter. I have no idea what Boyle is even doing in the NFL. He must have compromising pictures on someone because I don’t even think he’d make a CFL roster.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m off of this game because Michael Penix Jr. will start for the Falcons. It’s unclear what we’ll get out of Penix, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be worse than a decrepit Kirk Cousins. The quarterback change my energize the Falcons into having their best performance in a while.

PLAYER PROPS: In Drew Lock’s two starts this year, Malik Nabers has registered 79 and 69 receiving yards, with both numbers coming in over the posted prop. There will be plenty of garbage time, and Atlanta’s secondary isn’t very good. The best number is over 67.5 receiving yards -113 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants continue to have lots of injuries, with Brian Burns barely practicing this week. I thought about this, and I’m switching to the Falcons. If Michael Penix Jr. can be substantially better than one touchdown and nine interceptions in a five-game span, then this line is actually a bit too low.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps took the Giants earlier in the week, but other sharp money has come in on Atlanta late. The best line is -9 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -9.

Computer Model: Falcons -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Slight lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 64% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -9.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts did a number on themselves last week. They should have gone up 20-7 against the Broncos, but Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball at the 1-yard line. Michael Pittman Jr. then lost a fumble to set up a Denver score. After that, Adonai Mitchell threw a pick-six on a stupid trick play. The Colts turned a sure victory into a double-digit defeat.

The Colts felt as though they needed to resort to a trick play because they were going up against a superior defense that excelled against the run. The Titans can be classified as such as well, as they’ve been getting healthier recently. They’re No. 6 in rush defense EPA, so they should be able to limit Jonathan Taylor pretty well.

The Titans, however, aren’t as good against mobile quarterbacks. They have severe issues at linebacker, so that could be the downfall for them in this game, as Anthony Richardson will undoubtedly be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Colts aren’t nearly as good against rushing attacks as the Titans are. They’re 21st in run defense EPA, so Tony Pollard figures to have a big game. Pollard was limited in his workload last week because of an injury and a big deficit, but he should respond with a bounce-back effort.

Pollard’s running will make things easier for Will Levis, provided he’s even the starter after being benched last week. Levis was horrendous with some mind-numbingly bad turnovers. Levis has an opportunity to redeem himself because the Colts have given up some big games to tight ends and No. 1 receivers this year, but it’s hard to have any faith in Levis.

There’s a chance the Titans could turn to Mason Rudolph once again. Rudolph can be safer with the ball, but he’s also been responsible for some horrendous give-aways this year.

RECAP: It’s not often that the Colts have played against a team worse than them this year. They’ve taken on three Group D and zero Group F opponents. They’re 3-0 in those games, but they’ve won those contests by three, six, and one points. The three-point victory occurred at Tennessee.

The Colts have a decent chance of sweeping the Titans, but I don’t have much faith in them covering the -4. They could do it, but their offense can be so limited, and Tennessee can play good defense against non-elite offenses.

I’m going to side with the Titans at +4, but I can’t bring myself to bet them either because Levis is a pick-six waiting to happen. The Titans may have covered against the Bengals last week if Levis avoided turnovers, but he naturally could not because he has such awful field vision.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like the Colts will be getting back Ryan Kelly and JuJu Brents. The Titans, meanwhile, had nine players with non-rest DNPs on Wednesday, including T’Vondre Sweat and Tony Pollard.

PLAYER PROPS: Anthony Richardson has exceeded this rushing yards prop in five of his six previous games. The Titans are very vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, and in a must-win game, Richardson will do whatever it takes. The best number is over 44.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts may get Ryan Kelly and JuJu Brents back, but they may not be 100 percent in their first game returning from injury. I still have no strong opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game, and there are no surprise injuries. The best line is +4 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.5.

Computer Model: Colts -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Late money on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 68% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won the last 3 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: It took Aaron Rodgers a while, but we’re now seeing the future Hall of Famer finally play up to his expected level. Rodgers hadn’t played his best for a long while, but he’s caught fire the past two weeks.

Perhaps we should have expected Rodgers to take a while. He was a 40-year-old (now 41-year-old) coming off an Achilles tear. It makes sense that it would take him more than a year to recover. Then again, Rodgers has gone up against two teams that can’t rush the passer recently. That’ll be different this week, as the Rams rank in the top 10 in pressure rate. Rodgers is not protected very well because of injuries, so Los Angeles will be able to bring the heat, perhaps negating Rodgers’ sudden great connection with Davante Adams.

Rodgers hasn’t needed to lean on his rushing attack the past two weeks, but he may have to do so in this game. The Rams are 22nd against the run, so with another week of recovery time, Breece Hall could have a nice performance.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While Rodgers taking more time to recover than expected should have been predictable, it’s incredibly surprising how poor the Jets have been defensively. They can’t stop anyone. Mac Jones looked like Tom Brady against them last week, save for a couple of passes that were intercepted. The Jets are 25th in adjusted defensive EPA even though they were expected to be in the top five this year.

The Jets can’t stop the run at all, which was prevalent this past week when Travis Etienne gashed them with ease in the first half. If the Jets couldn’t contain Etienne, how will they deal with Kyren Williams, who just looked great versus San Francisco?

Williams’ great running will make things easier for Matthew Stafford. His receivers would normally have impossible matchups against the Jets’ talented cornerbacks, but those corners haven’t been able to cover anyone this year. Brian Thomas Jr. and Tyreek Hill just had huge performances the past two weeks, so Puka Nacua figures to post some amazing stats.

RECAP: The Jets have been such a huge disappointment this year, but they’ve done well the past two weeks. They led the entire time against the Dolphins and ultimately lost in overtime, and then they scored 32 points against the Jaguars on the road. Perhaps they can talk themselves into building something for next year.

That sentiment may end this week for a couple of reasons. First, the Jets are a bad team, and I like fading bad teams coming off victories because those sort of teams often struggle to sustain success.

Second, this is a step up in class for the Jets. This should not be surprising in the slightest, but the Jets have really struggled against Group A and B teams this year. They’ve had six games against those caliber of teams, and they are 0-6 straight up and 0-5-1 against the spread against them.

I would classify the Rams as a Group B team with their receivers being healthy. They’ve had impressive victories at San Francisco and Seattle recently. They also took down the Bills. They’re extremely well coached, while their defense has improved a lot lately. Their stop unit should be able to keep Rodgers in check, while their offense won’t have any issues against New York’s horrible defense. As a bonus, they’re also coming off extra rest, which Sean McVay will be able to use to his benefit.

If you couldn’t tell, I love the Rams this week. Except, I don’t. Here’s why: This game doesn’t mean much for the Rams. If you don’t believe me, I urge you to plug in the results in the NFL Playoff Machine, which you can find via a Google search. If the Rams win this game and the next one, they’ll still miss the playoffs if they lose to the Seahawks in Week 18, provided Seattle beats Minnesota, which is very possible if Geno Smith plays this week. Both the Packers and Redskins have tie-breakers over the Rams, so a wild card spot isn’t a realistic option. This all comes down to the Week 18 showdown versus Seattle.

I don’t know if the Rams will know this. If they do, they could take this game lightly, especially when considering that they’re coming off two huge wins against the Bills and 49ers. Thus, I would urge you to be cautious here because while the Rams are much better than the Jets, they could just be completely disinterested in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Quinnen Williams, Michael Carter, and Alijah Vera-Tucker all missed practice on Wednesday. It’s still early in the week, but all three absences would be huge, particularly Williams.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m not in love with anything in this game, so I’ll pass.

SATURDAY NOTES: Michael Carter is out, though D.J. Reed will return this week. Quinnen Williams is questionable, but he was DNP in practice all week. Nothing has changed for me regarding a potential bet on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Quinnen Williams is out for the Jets, which is a big loss for them. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -3 -105 at Caesars and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

This game means nothing to the Rams.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.

Computer Model: Rams -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Decent action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 79% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 133-96 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-22 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Sunny, 25 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.