2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Bengals at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were amazing on Monday night, though that was hardly a surprise. The Bengals have been ranked highly offensively the entire season, and Dallas didn’t prove to be too difficult of a matchup, especially when the Cowboys lost one of their top front-seven players to injury.

The Titans have lost plenty of defenders to injuries and trade-related departures this season. However, they were able to get a key cog in their secondary back last week, as Chidobe Awuzie saw his first action since Week 3. Awuzie’s return is huge because that means the Titans will no longer have cluster injuries at cornerback, which is crucial against Cincinnati’s dynamic receivers.

Tennessee’s ability to stop the run will depend on if some of those injured players return to action. Chase Brown has been electric, both as a runner and a receiver, since taking over for Zack Moss in Week 9. Brown projects well against the Titans.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Given how great Cincinnati’s scoring attack has been, it’s astonishing that the team is just 5-8. But that’s how horrible the defense has been. Cincinnati’s defense currently ranks dead last in adjusted EPA.

I’m no fan of Will Levis, but he has shown that he can shred bad defenses. Calvin Ridley is a dynamic receiver who will give Cincinnati’s horrible secondary fits, while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine could continue his unsustainable touchdown run.

The Titans can primarily move the chains on the ground. Tony Pollard is a terrific back who can go the distance whenever he touches the ball, and he’ll be going up against a Bengals rush defense that just allowed Rico Dowdle to look like the second coming of Emmitt Smith. Cincinnati’s ground defense was indeed debacled.

RECAP: I love fading bad teams coming off a win, as they often struggle to sustain success. The Bengals may not be recognized as a bad team, but if you remove Burrow, Chase, Brown, and Tee Higgins, this roster is absolutely dreadful. Even when factoring in the great offense, the Bengals are just 22nd in net adjusted EPA. Do you trust the league’s 22nd-best team as a five-point road favorite following a win? I sure don’t.

Backing the Titans for a huge play may not be enticing, but consider that Tennessee probably should have a better record because the team has endured a brutal schedule. Since the Week 5 bye, the Titans have battled nine teams. Of those nine teams, six have an 8-5 record or better, and three of them are 10-3 or better. They’ve gone against the Lions, Bills, and Vikings. If you remove those games alone because there’s no way Cincinnati is in that pantheon, the Titans have lost just twice by more than four points, doing so against the Chargers and Redskins. They beat the Texans and hung tight with the Colts, and those results were without Awuzie being available.

I know the Titans just lost to the Jaguars, but I think they’ll be playing much harder in the role of an underdog, whereas Cincinnati could be a bit aloof following a win on a short work week.

I think this is the game we thought we were getting in Cincinnati-Dallas last week. I faded the Bengals as a bloated road favorite, but later realized that this wasn’t the best idea because Burrow was coming off multiple losses. Now, the Bengals are in a much worse spot, while Tennessee will be playing hard for its head coach, who will want to beat his former team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tony Pollard and T’Vondre Sweat missed Wednesday’s practice, but they have plenty of time to return to the practice field. I should note that Evan tried to talk me out of this pick on the WalterFootball.com After Dark Show, citing that I was backing a crappy underdog, which has been a constant loser this year.

PLAYER PROPS: I love Tony Pollard in this matchup, but his status is in doubt. If he’s out, Tyjae Spears could be a nice bet to go over his rushing prop. Rico Dowdle rushed for 130 yards on the Bengals on Monday night.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t know if Tony Pollard will play, but he at least logged a limited practice on Friday. The Titans will be healthier defensively with Roger McCreary and Kenneth Murray returning, while the Bengals won’t have Orlando Brown again. I still like the Titans, but not as much as I did earlier in the week because I’m concerned about Will Levis’ shoulder injury. Levis hurt his shoulder just prior to halftime last week, which was a primary catalyst for Tennessee scoring no points in the second half. Levis practiced fully all week, but that doesn’t mean that he’s 100 percent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve decided not to bet this game. I’m too concerned with Will Levis’ shoulder, plus it could be windy. The Titans will have Tony Pollard, but there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent. Some sharp money has come in on Cincinnati. The best line is +6 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Bengals are a bad team coming off a win. The Titans have players and coaches who were recently on the Bengals.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -4.

Computer Model: Bengals -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Bengals early, but there’s a lot of action now.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 87% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Joe Burrow is 42-22 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Zac Taylor is 10-4 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Bengals -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Likely rain, 55 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.