2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Rams at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 14 Analysis: I have to apologize for Week 14. We gave back all of our winnings from Week 13 with asinine picks. I didn’t like the slate very much, so I got cocky with some of these selections. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Saints, 4 units (loss): I’ll stand by this pick. The Saints were up 14-3 in the fourth quarter, but the Giants got this insane backdoor cover where Drew Lock overcame a third-and-18 after a sack to convert a fourth-and-10. The Giants then had a two-point conversion bounce into the arms of one of their players after a deflection. And then later, the Saints appeared to score the front-door cover on a pick-six, but the officials (correctly) ruled that the defender who caught the interception gave himself up. I don’t know why he gave himself up when the game wasn’t over. Demario Davis isn’t very smart, apparently.

Dolphins, 5 units (loss): Congratulations if you had the -5.5. Same if you had the -6, to a lesser extent. We had the -6.5, and this game landed on six. I didn’t lock in -5.5 because I thought the spread would keep dropping as a result of the sharps being on the Jets. I waited, and then was trapped with a -6.5. Great.

Bears, 5 units (loss): This was an incredibly stupid pick. The 49ers were embarrassed on national TV, and we were getting great value with them. Yes, they had injuries, but still, it was an amazing spot for San Francisco. The fact that I not only missed this, but went the other way means that I really need to reevaluate what I’m doing.

Chiefs, 3 units (loss): This was another horrible pick. I just assumed the Chiefs would try harder. Why? And why did I move three units off the Buccaneers to this stupid Chiefs team? Again, I need to reevaluate.

Cowboys, 3 units (loss): I dropped this from five to three units on Monday because I didn’t feel quite right about it. That looked like a mistake until we suffered another bad beat. The Cowboys blocked a Cincinnati punt with two minutes remaining, but the ball bounced forward and hit a Dallas player, allowing the Bengals’ drive to continue. The Bengals then scored a touchdown instead of kicking a field goal to cover the spread. Brutal.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much better the Rams looked against the Bills compared to what we saw in their game against the Saints the prior week. They had issues blocking versus New Orleans, and their performance against Buffalo was incredible.

There’s reason to believe what the Rams did this past Sunday was a fluke, given that the Bills were in an obvious letdown spot. Besides, the 49ers will bring the pressure if Nick Bosa is able to return. Granted, it’s more likely that Bosa will be sidelined, but other players like Talanoa Hufanga and Deommodore Lenoir have returned from injury, while Dre Greenlaw could make his 2024 debut after being so close to playing last week.

The Rams will still have positive production from the passing game because Matthew Stafford and the receivers are just too good. Kyren Williams, on the other hand, could be in a difficult spot, as the 49ers showed improved run-stopping ability last week versus the Bears.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Rams have had issues against the 49ers in recent meetings because they’ve had problems defending the middle of the field. That has continued to be the case this year, as the Rams’ linebacking corps is in need of major improvement.

The 49ers should be able to attack this area with George Kittle and Jauan Jennings. The Rams have been weak against tight ends all year, while Jennings had a monstrous performance against them back in Week 3. It’s worth noting that Kittle will be unlocked if Trent Williams returns to action, given that Kittle needs to block more when Williams is sidelined. Given that Williams needed a scooter to move around the locker room a couple of weeks ago, however, it’s unlikely that he’ll return with this game occurring just four days after the previous one.

Speaking of injuries, it’s unclear if Isaac Guerendo will play. Guerendo has displayed amazing speed at running back, but he got hurt late last week. If he can’t go, it’ll be Patrick Taylor, who has a plus matchup against the Rams’ soft rush defense.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

I don’t think there’s a clear better team in this game, but there is a rest advantage in San Francisco’s favor. The 49ers made quick work of the Bears, and they were able to sit their starters in the fourth quarter. The Rams, on the other hand, had to hold on for dear life against the Bills. Combined, the offense and defense of the Rams played about 35-40 more snaps than the 49ers did last week.

That’s massive considering the short rest. This has to be a big advantage for the 49ers, who have dominated this rivalry. Yes, they lost the previous meeting, but they had a huge lead and blew it when they fell asleep at the wheel.

Furthermore, we’re getting nice line value here with San Francisco. The advance line was -3, and now it’s -2.5. That’s just a half-point move, but 17 percent of NFL games land on three, so getting the full three is something that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

I’m going to fade the public and back the 49ers. The unit count will depend on the injuries, but I imagine it’ll be for two to four units.

Our Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I know of a gambling syndacite that issued a play on the 49ers -2.5, hence the line move to -3. Also, while Trent Williams will be sidelined, Aaron Banks will return, and Nick Bosa has a chance to play. Isaac Guerendo does as well.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Jauan Jennings destroyed the Rams in Week 3. With Deebo Samuel struggling through injuries, Jennings will have more opportunities with the Rams missing cornerback Cobie Durant. The best number is over 70.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss the Jennings over in the same-game parlay with George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards, Deebo Samuel under 53.5 receiving yards, and Cooper Kupp over 62.5 receiving yards. Kittle usually does more blocking when Trent Williams is out, but perhaps the 49ers have realized that this is a mistake, based on last week’s results. Samuel has not been 100 percent since the midway portion of the season, so I don’t see why that would suddenly change. And the 49ers have some issues with slot receivers. This $25 parlay pays $251.29 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Williams is out again, but Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, and Isaac Guerendo will play for San Francisco. The sharps are on the 49ers at -2.5. Unfortunately, the best -2.5 lines are gone. You can get -2.5 -120 at DraftKings, but -3 +100 at Caesars is a bit better. For what it’s worth, -2.5 -120 is better than -3 -105. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers are in a much better rest situation.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Rams are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 70% (251,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won 27 of the last 38 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie and a 2023 game where both teams sat starters.

49ers are 44-32 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.