2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Bills at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

DETROIT OFFENSE: If the Rams could score 44 points on the Rams, what are the Lions going to do? That’s what most casual football fans are asking themselves. What they may not realize is that Buffalo was caught very flat last week. The team celebrated the snow game victory a bit too hard and wasn’t focused during the trip to Los Angeles. The Bills should be better off a loss, especially if Matt Milano improves his play following two disastrous starts from his extended time off.

To beat the Lions, you have to be able to stop the run because the entire offense is predicated on being able to move the chains via Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Bills are average when it comes to stopping the rush, according to the metrics, so it’s important that Milano performs better. He should improve each week because he’ll be further removed from his injury.

The Bills surrendered tons of yards through the air last week on Matthew Stafford throws to Puka Nacua. This is an area in which the Bills typically excel, so it was odd to see them struggle so much. This could have been associated with the flat result, so they could go back to playing well versus outside receivers. However, they’ve always struggled versus slot receivers, so Amon-Ra St. Brown could have a big game.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen just became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for three touchdowns and rush for three touchdowns in a single game. Perhaps he’ll be the first quarterback in NFL history to accomplish that feat in consecutive games.

This is a great matchup for Allen. The Lions have historically struggled against scrambling quarterbacks. They were destroyed in Baltimore last year. Granted, they beat Anthony Richardson a few weeks ago, but Richardson sucks. Allen is playing at an MVP level, and he’ll pick up tons of rushing yards against a Detroit defense missing several starters.

Allen will also have success aerially. Detroit has some issues in the secondary, and the team often struggles against slot receivers. Khalil Shakir should be Allen’s favorite target as a result.

RECAP: The Lions have the better record and happen to be at home. However, the Bills look like the right side to me. I love backing elite quarterbacks off losses. They often play at their best to compensate for the recent result. Most great quarterbacks have positive records in such situations. Allen is 12-8 against the spread excluding his rookie year, for example. That’s not an amazing record, but it’s still a winning proposition.

Furthermore, Allen will be playing against a team unfamiliar with him. This has given him a huge advantage in the past because NFC teams aren’t prepared to battle a freak of nature like him. It’s no coincidence that Allen is 16-10 against the spread versus the NFC. He and Lamar Jackson have dominated the opposing conference.

I wish we were getting the full three, but there’s a reason we’re not. Regardless, the Bills are worth a decent-sized bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: D.J. Reader missed Wednesday’s practice. A potential Reader absence would be huge for James Cook’s outlook.

PLAYER PROPS: Josh Allen has vowed to scramble more in the second half of the season. He’s had 50 or more rushing yards in three of his previous four games. The Lions tend to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. The best number is over 38.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m removing my units from the Bills because I’m concerned about their secondary. They won’t have Rasul Douglas, and they could also be out Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin, so this would be classified as cluster injuries in the secondary. Meanwhile, the Lions will be getting D.J. Reader and Taylor Decker back from injury.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may bet on the Bills depending on the inactives in this game. I don’t want to see cluster injuries in the secondary.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Buffalo safeties are out, so I’m not going to bet them. I still would take the Bills if I had to though. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +2.5 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are getting lots of public money.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 74% (136,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Josh Allen is 12-8 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Sean McDermott is 4-8 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Lions -2.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Dome.