2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Redskins at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: When Marshon Lattimore anticipated that he would make his first start with the Redskins against his former team, he must have imagined that it would be against Derek Carr. Lattimore won’t face that sort of challenge, as Carr has been knocked out for several weeks at the least. Instead of Carr, it’ll be Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler.

With Carr sidelined, the Saints’ deep passing attack will be non-existent. Carr occasionally hooked up with Marquez Valdes-Scantling on deep shots, but that is now a thing of the past. Rattler could technically do that, but there will be countless turnovers accompanying those long throws. Haener, meanwhile, will dink and dunk too much.

The only thing the Saints have going on offensively is Alvin Kamara. He has a nice matchup on paper with the Redskins having a run-funnel defense. However, given the issues with the passing attack, the Redskins will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and neutralize Kamara that way.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins will have much more success running the ball. Like Washington, New Orleans also struggles to stop the run, ranking 24th against it. Brian Robinson Jr. looked very healthy prior to the bye, so he’ll take advantage of New Orleans’ poor defensive front.

Of course, the Saints will have to worry about Jayden Daniels running as well. Daniels had a stretch in which he struggled to do much because of a rib injury, but he looked fully healed in the blowout victory prior to the bye. He’ll pick up chunks of yards on the ground as well.

Daniels will be able to take advantage of the accumulated rushing yards by delivering strikes to Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz. When this season began, the Saints had the personnel to slow down McLaurin, but that personnel is now starting for Washington. McLaurin will abuse New Orleans’ diminished secondary.

RECAP: The Saints don’t stand much of a chance in this game with either Rattler or Haener. Both are terrible quarterbacks who could be functional against lesser defenses, but the Redskins are 11th in defensive EPA. Backup quarterbacks have an abysmal track record versus defenses ranked in the top 12.

I’m going to be on the Redskins for a few units. Washington is 3-1 straight up and against the spread versus horrible quarterbacks this year. The one loss was to Cooper Rush at home, but the Redskins were flat in that game. There’s a chance they could look ahead to Philadelphia next week, especially given that they’re coming off a blowout victory prior to the bye, but given that they recently lost to Dallas, I think they’re likely to be more focused for this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Jake Haener will be the quarterback to start for the Saints. I don’t think it matters who starts as far as the Saints’ chances of covering. This line keeps bouncing back and forth between -7 and -7.5. If I see -7 again, I’ll lock in this pick early.

PLAYER PROPS: New Orleans’ secondary was so much better to start the year. Things have changed because of the Marshon Lattimore trade and some injuries. Terry McLaurin is catching everything from Jayden Daniels, so he should have a big game. The best line is over 67.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins are healthier than they were going into the bye with Marshon Lattimore and Andrew Wylie returning to action. Da’Ron Payne was DNP on Friday with a back injury, so that’s one reason to dislike them this week. It might just be the only one. The Redskins continue to be a big play, but we’re still waiting on a viable -7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Redskins won’t have their center, Tyler Biadasz, because of an illness. I’m still OK with betting the Redskins heavily. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -7.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

TEASER: I’m teasing the Redskins and Bills. I like Washington to win this game, while Buffalo should stay within one score. The legs are Redskins -1.5 and Bills +8, and I bet it on Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

WALT-LINE PARLAY: I’m debuting a wAlt-line parlay, which Quacky coined on the Saturday show. It’s effectively a pleaser, where I’m selling six points on each side, with the idea that we can avoid going through key numbers. I’m parlaying Redskins -13.5 and Vikings -13.5. This is a +768 parlay at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Redskins battle the Eagles next week.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.

Computer Model: Redskins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Washington: 80% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Opening Line: Redskins -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.