2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Dolphins at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 35-31 ATS through 13 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Dolphins -6

Bills -3.5

Seahawks +3

Buccaneers -6.5

Saints -4.5

The top pick pushed for the most part. The other four picks split, which means the house won because it collected the vig. The public is now 37-33.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Cowboys +2.5

Steelers +5

Buccaneers +3

Raiders +4.5

It’s so odd that all four teams are underdogs.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The first thing I looked at when breaking down the matchup between the Dolphins offense and Houston’s defense is how many missed tackles the Texans have on the year. Miami no longer leans on deep passes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, opting instead to give the ball to the play-makers as soon as possible. Thus, the opposing team’s tackling ability is rather significant.

The Texans rank highly in some defensive categories, but missed tackles isn’t one of them. In fact, they have the third-most missed tackles in the NFL, trailing only the Colts and Rams. Houston has been weak while trying to defend running backs and tight ends. Guess which positions Tua Tagovailoa has utilized heavily since returning from his concussion?

De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith figure to have big performances aerially. Hill, meanwhile, isn’t having his best year, but his production has increased in the past couple of weeks, so perhaps he’ll be more involved as well, though that will be tougher because Houston’s great pass rush will make it difficult for Tagovailoa to hang around in the pocket for too long.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of quarterback pressure, Miami’s pass rush was a huge disappointment last week. The Dolphins barely were in the same area code as Aaron Rodgers on most occasions. They did ultimately sack Rodgers three times, but Rodgers had a clean pocket for most of the game, allowing him to convert constant deep throws to his primary receivers.

This wasn’t a surprise because the Dolphins have the sixth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. However, there’s a chance this could change starting this week, as Bradley Chubb will likely be returning from injury. It’s unclear how effective Chubb will be in his first game back, but his presence can’t hurt. He will help the front get pressure on C.J. Stroud, who has not been protected well this year.

Stroud will have to do more than usual because he won’t be able to lean on Joe Mixon as much. The Dolphins have been better against the run lately, so they’ll be able to keep Mixon somewhat limited. Stroud could be forced into unfavorable passing downs as a result, which is why Chubb’s return would be so important for Miami.

RECAP: We know who the Dolphins are. They beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams. But who are the Texans? Are they a good team or a bad team? Their record says they are good, but they lost to the Titans and nearly went down to the Jaguars in their previous two games. That says they are a bad team.

The Dolphins should be able to hang with the Texans. It’s nice that we’re getting a +3 line when the advance spread was +2.5. I imagine this was because the Dolphins nearly lost to the Jets, but Rodgers inexplicably had his best game of the season. Miami should rebound in a game that means much more to them, as this contest is largely irrelevant for the Texans, who are locked into the No. 4 seed in the playoffs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. There was nothing significant on the injury report. I don’t anticipate betting this game.

PLAYER PROPS: The Texans have struggled against tight ends, and Jonnu Smith has been one of the hottest tight ends in the NFL. He caught three passes in overtime alone last week. With Jaylen Waddle banged up, Smith seems likely to go over the receiving yards total. The best number is over 44.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Terron Armstead is out, which is huge, especially when considering that Kendall Lamm could be sidelined as well. Miami having cluster injuries at tackle versus Houston’s talented pass rush doesn’t sound very appealing. I’m going to switch my pick to the Texans as a result.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm are out, which makes Miami a tough bet. You’d think the sharps would be on the Texans, but they’re not. The sharps bet Miami at +3, but haven’t touched this game at 2.5. The best line is -2.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Lots of money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 65% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 30-21 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Texans -2.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.