2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Colts at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: The last time we saw the Broncos, they were engaged in a high-scoring game against the Browns on Monday night. Bo Nix hit some explosive throws, but the Browns did a good job of keeping Nix in check for most of the night. That may sound weird because the final score was 41-32, but Denver scored 14 points off pick-sixes.

Nix should do fine against the Colts, but it must be noted that the offense as a whole doesn’t have the best outlook in this matchup. This is because the Broncos don’t really specialize in the two best ways to beat Indianapolis’ defense. The first is via the run. The Colts are poor versus the rush, but the Broncos can’t seem to make up their minds about which running back they prefer. Jaleel McLaughlin has been the top back the past two games, but that can always change. Denver has three mediocre options, and none of them project to take advantage of Indianapolis’ top weakness.

The Colts are also weak to tight ends. The Broncos don’t utilize their tight ends at all. Lucas Krull and Adam Trautman will often combine for one or two receptions per game, but it’s not enough. Meanwhile, Indianapolis tends to cover outside receivers well, so Courtland Sutton may not do as well as usual.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It seems as though the Colts will also have issues scoring against the Broncos. Jameis Winston just threw for nearly 500 yards against Denver, but it would be shocking if Anthony Richardson repeated anything close to that performance.

Richardson’s passing ability is miserable, and he won’t be as lucky as Winston was to avoid Riley Moss. The No. 2 cornerback was sidelined, creating a huge liability in the secondary that Jerry Jeudy was able to exploit. Moss should be back, so the Indianapolis receivers likely won’t be able to get open as easily. It also remains to be seen if the Colts’ top wideout, Josh Downs, will be able to return from injury.

The Colts will obviously attempt to establish Jonathan Taylor on the ground. This won’t be so easy, as Denver is ranked fifth in rush defense EPA. Taylor will have more success than Nick Chubb, who couldn’t even reach 30 rushing yards last Monday.

RECAP: I’m not a huge fan of the Broncos. They’re 8-5, but they’ve generated many of their wins in odd circumstances. For example, they beat the Buccaneers when Tampa Bay was unfocused off a revenge win over the Lions. The Broncos then defeated the Jets, who were caught looking ahead to a London game versus the Vikings. They’ve defeated plenty of bad teams, and while they nearly took down the Chiefs, almost every bad team has nearly taken down the Chiefs this year.

The Colts are not a bad team. I wouldn’t classify them as good either, but they can be competitive with their solid defense and running game. While I don’t expect Taylor to do all that much in this game, Richardson could generate some solid rushing yards and keep Denver’s offense off the field. I like the Colts to cover the +4, though I can’t say I’m crazy about taking them either because Richardson could always implode against a great defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I assumed we would be getting Riley Moss back from injury, but he was DNP on Wednesday. Moss’ absence would be pretty impactful, as it was in the matchup against the Browns.

PLAYER PROPS: Not seeing anything here. The weaknesses don’t align well with the opposing strengths. For example, the Colts are weak against the run, but which running back will Denver use?

SATURDAY NOTES: There are projected to be very heavy winds in this game, meaning the under is more appealing. The heavy winds will also benefit the team that can run better, which would be the Colts with their quarterback. Anthony Richardson will have his center and top receiver (Josh Downs) back from injury. I may bet the under if there continues to be projected heavy winds.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have come in on the Broncos, but I am going to bet three units on the Colts. Heavy winds should benefit Indianapolis, and the Broncos are completely overrated.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Downs is back to help the Colts. As mentioned, there’s some sharp money on the Broncos, but nothing really substantial. The best line is +4.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Broncos play against the Chargers on Thursday night next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -9.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 65% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncs -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 54 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 21 mph.