2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Falcons at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, otherwise known as Slim City. Tonight, the Oakland Raiders take on the Atlanta Hawks. Guys, I feel like the network heads are mocking me right now. I easily could have broadcasted the Eagles and Steelers game, but they sent me to Slim City where Mother asked me to place a bet on the roulette wheel for her. I’m usually very brave, and Mother even gave me the bravery award in home school, but I don’t know how to do the roulette wheel, so I got scared and I didn’t do anything besides play the games at Circus Circus. Do you think someone could bet the roulette wheel for me because I don’t know how?

Emmitt: Thanks, Milon. I not allow to place a bet on the root let wheel. I spend three long year on grambler unonymous, and I meet a lot of nice people in there like Mike Johnson, Tom Johnson, and Carol, uhh, Johnson. But do not tells anybody that they go there because grambler unonymous is suppose to be unonymous which mean you do not knowed who these people is. But I just hope I getted over my grambling indiction because I had a big problem betting on the coin flop in the Super Bowel. They say it a 50-50 proposition so this mean if you bet $50, you getted $50 back every time you make a gramble.

Reilly: Emmitt, how can you be so stupid and bet on something so random? Now will someone please help me bet the roulette wheel for Mother?

Tollefson: Reilly, you’re on your own on this one. I’m banned from all casinos. I was hired to procure female slaves for the casino managers, but I decided to keep the female slaves and money for myself. In fact, I’m going to duck out of here so I’m not murdered and buried in the desert.

Reilly: Tolly, I thought we were friends. Now, you’re telling me that you’re avoiding potential death when you could be doing me a favor instead? The nerve! Speaking of losers, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have an exclusive report saying that Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. engaged in a human centipede and have become one person named Kirk Penix III. I’m joined by a nerdy guy with glasses. Who are you, and how did you come to run a country?

Anthony Fauci: Hello dear, my nwame is Anthony Fauci, and I am the swience. President Biden has pardoned me, but I still fled the country because I feared prosecution from President Orange Felon as I call him, but I made so much money from Covid that I was able to bwuy my own country and now I’m able to open all my own viral research facilities and not be questioned by bad guys named Rand Pwaul who had the nerve to qwuestion the swience. How dare you qwuestion the swience? I am the swience!

Charissa Thompson: Ugh. I hated science class in high school. I cheated off this guy the entire time. Anyway, why do you think you deserve NFL games in your country?

Anthony Fauci: Becwause I am the swience, and if you don’t trust the swience then the swience is going to gets its revwenge. I already funded the creation of Cowvid, but that was nothing. Now, I’m going to unleash a virus that actually kwills people, and this time, I’m nwot going to twell you whether to wear a meesk or a dwouble meesk, so with the swience not twelling you what to do, how are people going to survive the next pwandemic? Oh, and I’m also going to unleash more diseases on dwogs, slaughtering them awll.

Reilly: So, you’re going to unleash a pandemic and kill dogs if you don’t get an NFL game? Good, I don’t care if dogs die because Mother won’t let me have a pet dog! She says I’m too young and irresponsible at the age of 73! I told Mother that this is BS because I would be able to walk the dog as long as I had a pooper scooper and wouldn’t have to pick up the poop with a bag in my hands. Camel Toe Harry, can you convince Mother that I am old enough and responsible to have a pet dog?

Kamala Harris: I grewww uppp innnn midddlee classss fammlly. I’vveee beeennn uunbburrb-hic-burrnedd bbyyy whaasss beeeen hic! Heeeyyyy sseeexxxxyyy Iii seeeee yoouuu hhahahahaahahaahah! I maaayy hhahavvvee lloosst prpreessiddentiiaalal raaccccee buuttt I’mmmm aavvaiaillabbllee tooo moovvvoeeee uupppp ththeee laldddderr agggiinan hic! Llikkee ththeyey ssayay iffff yoouu faalll offff theeee hoorsse hhavveee seexxxx wiiwthth itittt aggiaiann hahahahahaahaha!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, or should I call her Drunkala, has become an utter disgrace and a disabomination, I know many of you don’t know that word, disabomination, but I made up the word because abomination wasn’t enough for Drunkala, disabomination was the only way to describe her, and I am the only one who was able to think of such a great word, and it is a great word, some would say the greatest word, and no one has ever seen anything like it, disabomination, that’s a heck of a beauty, which is the opposite of Drunkala, who is a beast, a very ugly beast, and not on the outside, but on the inside because there’s nothing there, there’s nothing on the inside, which is why she’s such a disabomination, again, a great word, they should replace me as Webster, the guy who made the dictionary, you know Webster, he’s the total loser who makes that dictionary book, and it’s so long, if I were running the dictionary, it would be much more efficient and shorter, and there would be lots of pictures because books with pictures are the best, and the only books worth reading, and they’re not disabominations, they are great works, but the dictionary is run by that total disgrace Webster, who, frankly, is a total disabomination, and no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, I HATE TO BRAG, BUT I AM THE AUTHOR OF THE DICTONARY ON MY HOME WORLD, BUT DICTIONARIES ON MY HOME WORLD HAVE GREEN DRESSES FOR ARMS AND RUBBER CHICKENS FOR EYES.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, can you please make roulette wheel bets for me and then convince Mother that I’m old and responsible enough for a pet dog?

Jay Cutler: Pet dog? We have a pet dog.

Reilly: We do!? Did you get one for me for Christmas, New Daddy!?

Jay Cutler: No, I assumed you were the pet dog. Are you not?

Reilly: New Daddy, that’s not nice! I’m too famous to be a pet dog!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about famous pet dogs, Kevin. Let’s begin with Snoopy, Kevin. Why don’t we discuss Lassie, Kevin? How about Beethoven, Kevin? If you’re ready for a cry, start talking about Old Yeller, Kevin. We can now segue to Air Bud, Kevin. Care to share about Clifford the Big Red Dog, Kevin? Any thoughts on Scooby-Doo, Kevin? There’s also Kevin, Kevin, who is a stupid dog, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, THE JOKE IS ON YOU ANYWAY BECAUSE DOGS ARE GREAT AND I DON’T MIND BEING CALLED ONE, YOU DOG-HATING LOSER! We’ll be back after this!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: There could be a combination of four quarterbacks starting in this game. It seemed as though the Raiders wouldn’t have Aidan O’Connell when he was carted off the field against the Buccaneers, but it’s now sounding as though he’ll be able to play.

This is obviously bullish for the Raiders’ chances of winning this game, as their only alternative is Desmond Ridder, who hasn’t been on the team for very long. O’Connell has had some bright moments in this most recent stint with the Raiders, throwing for more than 300 yards against the Chiefs. O’Connell has been aided by Norv Turner, who joined the coaching staff during the Week 10 bye.

O’Connell has a great matchup in this game. The Falcons have improved their pass rush since their Week 12 bye, but they still have some major liabilities in the secondary. They also struggle against tight ends, which obviously bodes poorly against Brock Bowers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: As for the Falcons’ quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins is likely to start again, but it’s not out of the question that Raheem Morris will turn to Michael Penix Jr. before or during the game. Cousins has been an interception machine in the past several games, and he does not look healthy. Morris may view turning to Penix as an opportunity to save his season.

Cousins, however, could have a better performance. The Raiders defense has been decimated by injuries, and they are nowhere near the league’s seventh-ranked defensive unit from last year. They struggle to defend receivers and tight ends, so Cousins should have success targeting his array of talented receivers and perhaps even Kyle Pitts if the Falcons remember that he exists.

The Raiders are still pretty solid against the run. However, this may not mean much against Bijan Robinson, who is an elite talent who can overcome any sort of difficult matchup.

RECAP: There’s a lot of uncertainty of when to bet and fade backup quarterbacks. I’ve done the research on this. Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top-12 defenses, and they cover at a winning rate when battling mediocre or poor stop units.

Do I need to tell you where the Falcons rank? Atlanta has gotten after the quarterback at a higher rate since the bye, but the team still can’t stop anything.

I like the Raiders and the points. With the help of Norv Turner, they should be able to move the ball on Atlanta. It also helps that there are Circadian rhythms in play here, as the Raiders have a built-in advantage over the Falcons, especially with this being a slightly later start time than usual.

I’m going to put the Raiders down for TBA units right now because we currently don’t know which quarterbacks will start.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re getting mixed signals as far as who the Raiders quarterback is going to be. Antonio Pierce said that Desmond Ridder is expected to start, but the NFL reporters are indicating that Aidan O’Connell has a good chance to play in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aidan O’Connell stated that he plans to play, but he hasn’t practiced yet this week. Maxx Crosby hasn’t either yet, by the way.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Aidan O’Connell didn’t practice all week, while Maxx Crosby is out. It’s Falcons or nothing for me now.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Desmond Ridder will start for the Raiders, making them unappealing. However, betting the Falcons as a large road favorite is also unappealing, so this game is a complete pass for me.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Falcons have been torched every week by opposing receiving corps. Jakobi Meyers looks great, even with Desmond Ridder at the helm. The best number is over 59.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m throwing the Meyers prop into a parlay with Brock Bowers over 60.5 receiving yards, Bijan Robinson over 27.5 receiving yards, and Drake London over 64.5 receiving yards. The Falcons also play poorly against tight ends. Meanwhile, the Raiders are weakest against receiving backs and No. 1 wideouts. This $25 parlay pays $244.15 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Aidan O’Connell is out, as expected. So is Maxx Crosby. With the Raiders trending downward, I’d pick the Falcons, but don’t want to bet them at -6 on the road. The sharps took Atlanta, but at -4.5. The best line now is -6 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

All the money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 90% (170,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.