2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Cowboys at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: I thought the Cowboys projected well offensively against the Bengals because of how poor Cincinnati’s defense is. Dallas moved the chains well to start the game, but that changed when they suffered an injury to their center, Cooper Beebe. Already down Zack Martin, the Cowboys suddenly had cluster injuries in the interior of their offensive line.

The Cowboys will carry those injuries into this game, unless Beebe can return on a short week. This will be problematic against the Panthers, whose pass rush has improved exponentially since D.J. Wonnum returned from injury. This isn’t as easy of a matchup as it seems for Cooper Rush. The Eagles scored just 22 points on Carolina, after all.

There’s one caveat here that could help Rush, and that would be Carolina’s poor run defense. While the Panthers have gotten better against the pass in recent weeks, they still surrender a lot on the ground, so Rico Dowdle projects well. He can help Rush get into third-and-short situations.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers aren’t the only team in this matchup that struggles to stop the run. The Cowboys are also horrible against it. In fact, both teams are in the bottom three in ground defense along with the Bengals.

I trust Chuba Hubbard and the Carolina offensive line more than I do Dowdle and Dallas’ banged-up front. Thus, I’m more bullish on the Panthers’ ability to move the chains via their ground attack and set up easy passing opportunities for the quarterback.

Speaking of the quarterback, Bryce Young has played on a high level since being re-inserted into the lineup. Granted, he has gone up against some bad defenses, but he composed himself well against Philadelphia’s No. 1 stop unit. Since reclaiming the job, Young is 20th in EPA, ranking just ahead of Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. He’s played well enough to beat good teams, so he can certainly defeat the bad ones.

RECAP: The Cowboys have to be deflated coming off their loss to the Bengals. They believed that they could make a run and catch the Redskins. Now, they’re three back of Washington, so their playoff chances are incredibly slim.

I don’t know how the Cowboys possibly fight hard in this game. Meanwhile, the Panthers have been trying hard lately, which makes sense because they know that they’re building for the immediate future.

I like the Panthers to cover. It’s odd to back them as a favorite, but the sharps are betting them and the public is on the other side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cooper Beebe didn’t practice Wednesday, so it looks like the Cowboys will have cluster injuries in the interior of the offensive line. Also, I brought this up on the YouTube show, but imagine what this spread would be if Chuba Hubbard didn’t lose a fumble in overtime against the Buccaneers and Xavier Legette caught the game-winning touchdown against the Eagles. This line would definitely be above -3.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing sticks out to me in this game. I wanted the Chuba Hubbard over rushing yards, but it’s priced extremely high at 80.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys won’t have Cooper Beebe, meaning they’ll have cluster injuries in the interior of the offensive line. The Panthers, however, won’t have one of their starting linebackers in Trevin Wallace. Jaycee Horn is questionable after being limited all week. This is still an advantage for the Panthers, who would be favored by well over three if Chuba Hubbard didn’t fumble and Xavier Legette didn’t drop a touchdown.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been any sharp action on this game, and I still don’t plan on betting this contest. The best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Cowboys could be deflated after basically being eliminated from the playoffs.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The public loves the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Chance of rain, 46 degrees. Light wind.