2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Bears at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams was so much better since the Bears changed offensive coordinators, so what happened? Why was Williams and the rest of the offense so pitiful against the 49ers? Surely, it wasn’t just San Francisco being extra motivated off the loss in the snow game to Buffalo.

Indeed, I think it’s something more permanent, albeit just for this year. Chicago’s new offensive coordinator is serving as the interim head coach, so all the help that Williams was getting will be spread thin. I don’t know if the Bears will have an appropriate game plan for the Vikings, and if so, it could end disaster for Chicago. Brian Flores is the master of frustrating bad and young quarterbacks, and he could completely discombobulate Williams. The No. 1 overall rookie had a solid performance against Flores in the prior meeting, but Flores may have some new wrinkles that could befuddle Williams and his coaching staff.

This is a tough matchup for the Chicago running game as well. The Vikings have been stout against the rush, so I wouldn’t count on D’Andre Swift doing anything for yet another week.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings had no issues moving the chains against the Bears in their 30-27 victory against them back on Nov. 24. Aaron Jones enjoyed a solid game, rushing for 106 yards and a touchdown. This performance was not a surprise, given that the Bears have been horrible against the run this year.

Jones’ great running opened up opportunities for Sam Darnold, who played nearly flawless football. He went 22-of-34 for 330 yards and two touchdowns. He connected primarily to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. The Bears have been awful against tight ends, so Hockenson’s great showing was predictable.

The only way the Bears can disrupt this attack is by hounding Darnold. They got to Darnold three times in the prior meeting, as the Vikings’ pass protection has not been the same since Christian Darrisaw’s injury. However, Jones being able to run well will negate these pass-rushing opportunities.

RECAP: It’s astonishing how embarrassing the Bears were last week. I felt especially humiliated backing them. I thought they’d win outright, but they had no chance to stay within single digits.

I don’t see why that would suddenly change. The Bears no longer have a head coach, and they don’t even have an offensive coordinator either because the man occupying that role, Thomas Brown, is now the interim head coach. This is effectively what the Jets did with their defensive coordinator upon firing Robert Saleh. No wonder the Bears weren’t prepared at all last week.

Chicago could underperform like the Jets the rest of the year. They have less talent overall than the Jets, so it’ll be difficult to expect them to compete with the Vikings. I know the two teams went into overtime in a recent meeting, but remember that Minnesota was way ahead before Chicago stormed back. I don’t think the Bears will be able to do that with the coaching change.

I should note that I’m no fan of the Vikings in general. They’ve beaten no winning teams since losing Christian Darrisaw. However, this is something to consider for the future because the Vikings aren’t exactly battling a good team in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to be betting one of the FanDuel specials in this game, which is Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to each have 100-plus receiving yards and one-plus touchdown each. They did this last week, and it pays out at 80/1.

SATURDAY NOTES: Neither D’Andre Swift nor Roschon Johnson has practiced yet, so we’ll have to see what the Bears do at running back if both are sidelined.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may play an alt-line bet with the Vikings, or as Quacky coined it on Saturday’s YouTube show, a wAlt line parlay.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I’m going to bet two units on the Vikings. I think we have to take advantage of the fact that the Bears don’t have a real offensive coordinator, with Thomas Brown now serving as the interim head coach. Also, the Vikings are much better than the Bears and should be favored by more.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love T.J. Hockenson in this game. The Bears are weak against tight ends, so Hockenson should have a big game. The best number is over 41.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

We’re throwing the Hockenson prop into a parlay with Jordan Addison over 52.5 receiving yards, Aaron Jones over 65.5 rushing yards, and Keenan Allen over 50.5 receiving yards. The Bears have been leaky against the run and No. 2 receivers, while Minnesota has been weak against slot receivers. This $25 parlay can be boosted at 20% via promo, so it pays out $247.50 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, I’m betting on the Vikings. The sharps haven’t really touched this game, but I like Minnesota here to demolish a team with no offensive coordinator. The best line is -7 +100 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -14.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 80% (251,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.