2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Buccaneers at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers seemed well on their way to an easy blowout last week. They were up 14-0 on the Raiders before the first quarter even concluded. And yet, it wasn’t very long until the Raiders were able to threaten Tampa Bay.

The reason for this was that Baker Mayfield was careless with the ball. Mayfield could see lots of pressure in this game from the Chargers’ two elite edge rushers, which could cause some more turnovers. The Chargers hounded Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week, so they’ll have similar success applying pressure.

The Buccaneers will attempt to run the ball with Bucky Irving and/or Rachaad White to limit these mistakes. The Chargers have been woeful against the run lately, but that had to do with Denzel Perryman’s injury. Perryman seemed close to returning to action last week, so he should be available to slow Tampa Bay’s running attack.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, that’s something that has largely disappeared for them in recent weeks, thanks to J.K. Dobbins’ injury. The Chargers had a bit of success on the ground last week, but they shouldn’t expect to gain anything with Vita Vea playing on the other side of the line of scrimmage.

Despite not being able to run effectively, the Chargers should still be able to move the ball aerially. Justin Herbert had a poor opening half on Sunday night, but was nearly perfect following intermission. He’ll have a great matchup against the Buccaneers, who are only good against poor or young quarterbacks. Todd Bowles thrives in these matchups, but his defenses tend to collapse when dealing with top talent at quarterback.

A big factor in the Chargers being able to light up the scoreboard is the availability of Ladd McConkey, and to a lesser extent, Will Dissly. The Buccaneers give up lots of production to slot receivers, so McConkey’s return would be huge for this matchup.

RECAP: Two capsules above this one, I discussed that great quarterbacks coming off losses are generally great bets. The same applies to elite coaches. Jim Harbaugh qualifies as such. Excluding 2014 when he had one foot out the door in San Francisco, Harbaugh is 11-3-1 against the spread off a loss. With the Chargers, he’s 3-0-1.

With this resilience boost, the Chargers look great, especially when factoring in that they’ll likely be healthier this week. They were missing McConkey and Perryman against the Chiefs, but they should have one of them back in the lineup.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are a flimsy team. They’ve won three in a row, but their competition has been questionable, to say the least. The three teams they’ve beaten are the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. Their combined records are 7-32. That’s not very impressive, especially when considering that the Buccaneers nearly lost to the Panthers and had trouble putting away the Raiders.

I like the Chargers in this game. They continue to be underrated, while the case can be made that the Buccaneers are overrated. And this -3 spread is quite manageable. My only worry is that the Chargers have to play on Thursday, but they’re coming off a loss, so there’s a better chance they’ll be focused for this game as opposed to if they were coming off a win against Kansas City.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers had a lot of players miss Wednesday’s practice. Many of them will surely return to practice by Friday, but the injury report itself looks pretty bleak if you take a look at it.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re waiting on some injury updates with Ladd McConkey, Denzel Perryman, and Bucky Irving. I may have something later.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was some question about Mike Evans and Tristan Wirfs playing, but neither finished the week with an injury designation. However, the Buccaneers could be missing every safety on their roster outside of Kaevon Merriweather. This could be a major problem against Justin Herbert, who will be hoping to get Ladd McConkey back from injury. We’ve been waiting on news regarding McConkey and Denzel Perryman. Unfortunately, we have no clarity for now, with both being questionable after being limited in practice all week. Both were limited all last week, but missed Week 14. I will bet on the Chargers if at least one returns.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on injury updates on Ladd McConkey and Denzel Perryman.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ladd McConkey will play, but Denzel Perryman will not. I know I said I’d bet the Chargers if one of them returns, but we don’t know if McConkey will be healthy at all. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -3 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Chargers play on Thursday night against the Broncos, but they’re coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The public loves the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 73% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 140-98 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Jim Harbaugh is 11-3 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.