2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Steelers at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Video of the Week: I found this video where the actors from Game of Thrones reveal if they read the book or not. More importantly, George R.R. Martin reveals where he was with Book 6:

This panel was held a decade ago. A decade. Martin said he was going to release Book 6 soon, and yet it’s been a decade! Great answer by Jaime about the book reading, by the way.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles have won nine in a row, but they haven’t been immune from some locker room disruption. A.J. Brown took to local radio and complained about his lack of usage. He saw just four targets last week, so he was naturally upset. I was distraught as well because I had Brown’s over receiving yards prop.

While some may see this as a negative, these sorts of matters are often overblown by the media, which is trying to generate clicks and views. It’s likely that Brown and Jalen Hurts have already kissed and made up. Not the sort of kissing and making up that Matt Millen is into with his 100-percent USDA Men, but you get the picture. The squeaky wheel tends to get the grease, and Brown is lining up for a big performance against the Steelers, who have allowed more big plays to outside receivers than most think.

Brown will need to carry the Eagles this week because the Steelers are stout against the run. They recently clamped down on Derrick Henry, so they should be able to play Saquon Barkley well.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Of course, the Steelers know a thing or two about the deep pass. Russell Wilson has completed a large number of “moon balls” since taking over for Justin Fields at quarterback.

Those “moon balls” may not be present in this game, however. The Eagles have two excellent rookie cornerbacks who have improved the team’s aerial defense. Furthermore, George Pickens is likely to be sidelined again, so it’s not like the Philadelphia corners will be challenged.

Like the Eagles, the Steelers aren’t expected to get much on the ground. Philadelphia ranks at the very top of the charts in run defense, so neither Najee Harris nor Jaylen Warren will generate much.

RECAP: The Eagles are the best team in the NFL, and I think they deserve to be favored by this sort of spread. However, I don’t know how likely it is that they’ll cover this line, especially when considering the tendencies of the opponent.

Mike Tomlin is the master of covering as an underdog. He’s an amazing 63-34 against the spread in his career as an underdog. You need a great reason to go against Tomlin as a dog, and perhaps backing the Eagles is it. Philadelphia destroyed Baltimore a couple of weeks ago, and it could treat Pittsburgh similarly. When the Steelers haven’t covered as dogs, it’s been against elite teams like the Chiefs from a few years ago, or the Bills last season in the playoffs.

With that in mind, I’m going to side with the Eagles, but only for office pool purposes. I don’t have a strong angle concerning this game, aside from fading a publicly backed dog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: George Pickens missed Wednesday’s practice, and it sounds like he’s a long shot to play in this game. Meanwhile, it seems as though Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown have already kissed and made up. I will almost certainly be betting Brown’s over receiving yardage prop.

PLAYER PROPS: The squeaky wheel gets the grease. I’d be shocked if A.J. Brown didn’t have a big game this week. If you’re worried about the matchup, the Steelers have given up some big games to No. 1 wideouts. Ja’Marr Chase (86 yards), Terry McLaurin (113 yards), and Malik Nabers (71 yards) are some recent examples. Brown has gone over 80.5 in six of his 10 games this year. The best number is over 80.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: George Pickens is out, as expected. The Steelers also won’t have a couple of key defenders in DeShon Elliott and Larry Ogunjobi. This isn’t enough for me to wager on Philadelphia, but I’m inching closer to doing so.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has fallen to -5, which only matters for small percentage points. I’m still zero units on the Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has moved back up to -5.5. There’s some sharp money on the Eagles, but not a significant amount. The best line is -5.5 -110 at many sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 82% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Steelers are 31-17 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 48 instances.

Mike Tomlin is 63-34 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Eagles -5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 42 degrees. Light wind.