2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Patriots at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’ve joked about the Cardinals struggling the past three weeks because Kyler Murray played video games since the bye, but the truth is that Murray’s had some very difficult matchups since he’s had the idle week. He has played the Seahawks twice and the Vikings. Both teams are in the top seven of adjusted defensive EPA.

The Patriots rank 28th in defense. They can’t stop the run at all, which has to be music to Murray’s ears. Murray hasn’t had the luxury of a running game in the matchups against Seattle and Minnesota, but he’ll able to hand the ball off to James Conner and expect big gains.

Murray will benefit from these Conner runs and perhaps avoid interceptions, which have ruined his chances of winning the past three weeks. Murray will continue throwing to Trey McBride, who will be able to abuse a Patriots defense that hasn’t been able to stop tight ends.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots should be able to establish the run as well, provided that they’re not getting blown out in this game. They’ve run well with Rhamondre Stevenson in some matchups, including the near-victory against the Colts prior to the bye. Zach Charbonnet just looked like Walter Payton against New England, so perhaps Stevenson will pick up where Charbonnet left off.

Drake Maye should be able to run on the Cardinals as well. He won’t face too much of a pass rush, with Arizona having the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Maye may not even need to escape the pocket.

Maye will have the most success targeting Demario Douglas. The nifty slot receiver has enjoyed some quality performances this year, and this should be another one with Arizona being very weak against the position.

RECAP: The Cardinals have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL over the past three weeks. They came out of their bye with a 6-4 record, but they’ve dropped three consecutive games. However, it should be noted that their three defeats have come to the Seahawks (twice) and Vikings, two teams that are in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings. Plus, Arizona was up 19-6 at Minnesota before a late collapse.

I like the Cardinals to rebound. They’re playing a far inferior opponent. Yes, the Patriots nearly beat the Colts prior to the bye, but that was one week after they got absolutely destroyed in Miami. The Cardinals and Dolphins are similar-caliber teams – they played a tight game in Miami back in Week 8 – so this result could be similar than the 34-15 debacle.

It’s worth noting that we’re getting some line value here as well. The advance spread was Arizona -7, but it dropped to -4.5 because of the loss to Seattle. We’re now getting the Nos. 2 and 3 key numbers (7, 6) with the line move, which sounds great to me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some whacky line movement in this game. The Cardinals opened -6.5, but fell to -4.5 because of sharp money on New England. Then, other sharp money came in on the Arizona, pushing this line back to -6. It could be possible that this was from the same people, as they tried hard to manipulate the line to get a very favorable number on Arizona, but that’s just speculation.

PLAYER PROPS: The Patriots have been gashed by running backs all year. James Conner should be the latest running to gash them. He hit 90 rushing yards versus Seattle last week, and this is an easier matchup. The best number is over 75.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing on the injury report has moved me off my Arizona wager. In fact, after thinking about it, I may have a bigger bet on the Cardinals.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Cardinals may not have Jonah Williams due to an illness, but that wouldn’t affect my evaluation of this game because it’s not a cluster injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jonah Williams will play, which is obviously good news. The sharps are on the Cardinals. The best line is -6 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -7.

Computer Model: Cardinals -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Growing action on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money Arizona: 68% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Patriots are 30-17 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Cardinals -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.