2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Ravens at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I don’t know how much there is to analyze here. The Ravens have an explosive offense that is predicated on the run. The Giants have a lousy defense that can’t stop the run. The defense is 18th in EPA, but that ranking will plummet due to recent injuries to Dexter Lawrence and other players.

Derrick Henry has a terrific matchup in this game. The Giants couldn’t even stop the run with Lawrence on the field. They have cluster injuries at defensive tackle, so Henry will trample New York’s helpless defense.

Lamar Jackson will do as he pleases as well. The Giants also have injuries in the linebacking corps, so it’ll be tough for them to chase Jackson. Keep in mind that as an NFC team, the Giants aren’t familiar with Jackson, so that will only benefit the dynamic quarterback, as it has in other NFC matchups.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Ravens have a major defensive weakness that has been well documented on this Web site and in other publications. They have been woeful against the pass all year. The pass rush has been mediocre at best, while the cornerbacks have struggled mightily.

The Giants, however, won’t be able to take advantage of this. Not only do they have horrible backup quarterbacks; they also have cluster injuries on the offensive line with Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor both being sidelined.

Whether it’s Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito, New York’s quarterback will be stuck in third-and-long situations. The Giants won’t be able to establish Tyrone Tracy because Baltimore is stout against the run.

RECAP: I don’t think they can make this spread high enough. Since the Daniel Jones benching, the Giants have gotten blown out by the Buccaneers and Cowboys, and they were down 14-3 against the Saints before the biggest garbage-time touchdown you’ll ever see.

None of the Buccaneers, Cowboys, or Saints are nearly as good as the Ravens. Of course, we know that, as Baltimore demolished both Tampa Bay and Dallas, and that was with Chris Godwin and Dak Prescott playing for those respective teams. The Ravens have the great run defense to shut down Tracy, and Lock isn’t good enough to take advantage of the issues in their secondary.

The only concern is that the Ravens have the Steelers next, so there’s a chance they’ll look past New York. I don’t think this will be the case, however, because the Ravens are coming off a loss. They’ve had two weeks to stew about the defeat against Philadelphia. I love backing good quarterbacks off a loss, and Jackson has a great track record in that regard.

Also, we get to fade Lock against a good defense. The Ravens obviously have their issues against the pass, but they’re still 12th in adjusted EPA defense. This gives them a great advantage over a terrible quarterback.

If you’re worried about laying this many points on the road, let me allay your concerns. Dating back to 1989, which is as far as my database goes, road favorites of 14.5 or more are 13-8 against the spread. Those teams are 2-0 after byes, by the way.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is up to -16.5! Wow! Road favorites of -16.5 or more are 4-4 against the spread all time. Given the line movement, I’m going to downgrade this pick to four units.

PLAYER PROPS: If you think this game will be a blowout then you have to love Justice Hill’s rushing + receiving yards prop. In Baltimore’s two blowout wins this year, Hill has accumulated 58 and 54 total yards. The best number is over 31.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants lost yet another lineman in Jon Runyan, so they’re down three starting offensive linemen (both tackles), multiple defensive tackles, and their top two cornerbacks. Oh, and they’re starting Tommy DeVito again. They can’t make this line high enough. Having said that, I worry about the Ravens potentially sitting some starters too early with the Steelers coming up next, so I’m going to drop this unit count to two.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants will be down three cornerbacks in addition to their other injuries. The sharps were on the Ravens at -14.5, but not at this number. I said this on the show, but given that Baltimore could rest its starters early with Pittsburgh coming up, I’m going to bet the first-half line. The best first-half line is -8.5 -121 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Ravens have the Steelers coming up, but they’re also coming off a loss prior to the bye.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -12.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -14.

Computer Model: Ravens -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 53% (91,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Lamar Jackson is 9-3 ATS as a favorite of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -14.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 37 degrees. Light wind.