2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Chiefs at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I was fairly optimistic about Kansas City’s chances of improving the offense last week because of D.J. Humphries’ debut. The Chiefs have endured major issues at left tackle, and Humphries was expected to provide a nice boost. Humphries, however, bombed in his first game. Not only did he block poorly; he was knocked out late with an injury, so it’s unclear what his status will be this week.

The Chiefs will need some improved play at left tackle in this matchup because of Myles Garrett and the opposing defensive front. The Browns generate tons of heat on opposing quarterbacks, ranking third in pressure rate. Patrick Mahomes will constantly be under duress, and he won’t have the best options to lean on at receiver.

It would be helpful if the Chiefs were able to establish the run, but they forgot to do so last week against a soft Chargers ground defense. This isn’t a great matchup for Isiah Pacheco, but it’s not a bad one either, given that the Browns are ranked 14th versus the rush.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Whatever Pacheco ends up doing on the ground, it’ll be better than what the Browns will be able to generate. Nick Chubb looks like a shell of his former self coming off his brutal knee injury. He shouldn’t even be playing right now, given that he’s at risk for further injury, just as Jonathon Brooks was.

Jameis Winston will have to do it all himself, which did not pan out very well last week. However, that was against a far superior Pittsburgh defense. The Chiefs have been woeful at stopping the pass. Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell have looked like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady against them.

Winston should be able to deliver constant strikes to Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, and perhaps Cedric Tillman if he can return from his concussion. There’s always a risk of a pick-six with Winston, but even if that occurs, he’ll be able to bounce back like he did versus the Broncos.

RECAP: I’m not going to be duped into backing the Chiefs again. Not until the playoffs, anyway. I thought they’d put forth more of an effort against the Chargers, but they continued to do just enough to win.

That’s all the Chiefs have done this year. Here are their margins of victory since Week 8 and the corresponding opponents: 7 (Raiders), 6 (Buccaneers with no Mike Evans), 1 (Broncos), -9 (Bills), 3 (Panthers), 2 (Raiders), and 2 (Chargers). All they do is win by one score, and I don’t know why they’d put forth any sort of maximum effort this week, especially now that they’re two games ahead of the Bills for the No. 1 spot.

Conversely, the Browns should play hard. They’re coming off a blowout loss, but they’ve been fighting hard for their coach and quarterback. Of course, the worry is that Winston will throw a pick-six to ruin a potential cover, but if that doesn’t happen, it would be surprising if the Browns don’t stay within margin.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns had a couple of key players miss Wednesday’s practice, as Joel Bitonio and David Njoku were both DNP. I don’t think either absence would alter my pick.

PLAYER PROPS: I had grand plans of betting David Njoku’s over receiving yards because the Chiefs have one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the NFL. Unfortunately, Njoku is unlikely to play.

SATURDAY NOTES: David Njoku is likely out. Cedric Tillman is out as well. The only bad news for the Chiefs is that D.J. Humphries will be sidelined, but they’re used to bad left tackle play. I must say that on Thursday’s show, Andy Iskoe offered a compelling argument for the Chiefs, which will keep me off the Browns:

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns won’t have David Njoku. The sharps were on the Browns at +6 through +4, but then there was some takeback on the Chiefs at -4. The best line is +4.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

It’d be shocking if the Chiefs played harder than the Browns.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 59% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 95-25 SU, 63-55 ATS (49-42 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Rain, 41 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.