2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Packers at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Figs. My dentist’s office is packed with attractive female workers. How badly would I crash and burn with them if I were single?

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: This matchup would have looked much different a couple of months ago. The Seahawks were miserable on this side of the ball back in October, as they couldn’t stop the run or get to the quarterback. However, thanks to Leonard Williams’ improved health, and the trade for D’Ernest Jones, the Seahawks have maintained a dominant stop unit of late.

Williams and Jones have allowed the Seahawks to be stout against the run. Josh Jacobs is an excellent running back capable of overcoming most matchups, but this might be a very tough one for him.

The Seahawks are weaker to slot receivers and tight ends. The Cardinals were able to take advantage of the latter with Trey McBride, but their slot receiver is the ineffective Greg Dortch, who has had a very disappointing season. The Packers have two players who can fully abuse these weaknesses, as Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft have both enjoyed big performances in many games this year.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: If there’s a weakness on the Seahawks, it’s the offensive line, particularly when it comes to pass protection. Left tackle Charles Cross is incredible, but the rest of the blocking unit is very pedestrian, especially in the wake of Connor Williams’ retirement.

Pass blocking will be very crucial against the Packers, who can get after the quarterback effectively. Of all teams that don’t blitz at a rate of 20 percent or more, they are third in pressure rate. They’ll be on Geno Smith, who will really need to get his running game going to avoid heavy pressure.

It’s clear that the Seahawks don’t need Kenneth Walker back to run the ball well. Zach Charbonnet exploded for a huge performance last week versus the Cardinals. However, running on the Packers is a tougher challenge. Green Bay has a top-10 run defense, so Charbonnet won’t trample the Packers with ease like he did Arizona.

RECAP: I mentioned in the Chargers-Buccaneers capsule that I love backing great coaches off a loss. I’d say Matt LaFleur qualifies. The Packers have been consistently excellent under his watch, so it should come as no surprise that Green Bay is 18-11 against the spread following a loss under LaFleur. In fairness, many of those victories came with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Since Love took over, that number is just 5-6 ATS, but I do like the idea of backing the Packers following a loss, especially when there are extra days of preparation attached to it.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value. The advance spread was Green Bay -3, but with the Packers’ loss to Detroit, coupled with Seattle’s blowout win at Arizona, I expected the line to shift closer toward pick ’em. I figured that at the very least, we’d get a -2.5.

No dice. The line is still -3 despite 60 percent of the tickets coming in on Seattle. I think the sportsbooks know that if they moved off -3, they’d get a crap ton of money on the Packers from the sharps. The sharps are already shading toward Green Bay, so imagine what it would be at -2.5.

I’m going to back the Packers, as I’m not fully buying the Seahawks just yet. I know that Seattle has a great track record as home underdogs (22-9 ATS since 2009), but Green Bay is the better team with the rest and resilience advantages.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kenneth Walker missed Wednesday’s practice, but at this point, who cares? Zach Charbonnet looked better than Walker in the battle against Arizona last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to be betting a few units on the Packers. They’re the superior team coming off a loss. The Seahawks have won three in a row, but they’ve beaten mediocre teams. This is a massive step up in class, and we’re now getting the -2.5.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The sportsbooks keep setting Tucker Kraft’s numbers too low. He more than doubled his receiving prop on Thanksgiving, and he exceeded this number against the Lions when it wasn’t even a good matchup. The best number is 33.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re going to throw the Kraft receiving prop with Jayden Reed over 40.5 receiving yards, Josh Jacobs under 80.5 rushing yards, and Zach Charbonnet over 27.5 receiving yards. Reed should rebound off his goose egg, as the squeaky wheel could get the grease. Jacobs scores touchdowns, but seldom rushes for more than 75 yards. And Charbonnet should catch a lot of passes as the Seahawks attempt a comeback. This $25 parlay pays $224.39 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We posted the player prop and same-game parlay late because FanDuel refused to post Zach Charbonnet’s receiving prop. They finally did on Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some back and forth with the sharp action, with the pros on the Seahawks +3 and Packers -2.5. The line has moved back up to -3 in most places, but you can still get -2.5 -118 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 55% (145,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt LaFleur is 56-39 ATS in the regular season.

Seahawks are 22-9 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Chance of rain, 45 degrees. Light wind.