2024 NFL Picks – Week 15: Jets at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

It’s true. Counting the vig, Kurt Bozwell wouldn’t be up enough to brag about it. Something tells me this guy is lying…

Here’s a hate post I sent to someone:

These people – particularly cat ladies – are the worst and should not be voting. Matthew blocked me, by the way, but only after replying, “‘Uppity?’ OK gramps lol!”

This guy embodies everything wrong with society. And what kind of childish loser blocks people? That’s something a 13-year-old girl would do.

Anyway, here’s something you can always do:

When challenged, just blame luck. Yes, it was dumb luck that I transferred three units from the Buccaneers to the Chiefs.

And finally, this concerns my NFL Power Rankings:

I’m disappointed in this guy. WalterFootball readers are the smartest football fans out there, and yet we get this bozo who hasn’t been paying attention since mid-October.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Where did that performance come from? Aaron Rodgers had struggled all year, ranking among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL since the midpoint of the season. The only quarterbacks who were behind him in the metrics were terrible backups like Mac Jones and Cooper Rush, and injured players like Jayden Daniels. Rodgers resembled a lifeless corpse who was surely headed for retirement.

Rodgers, however, bounced back brilliantly against the Dolphins. It helped that he didn’t see any sort of pass rush from the team with the sixth-worst pressure rate, but it’s not like he’s doing to face much of a challenge against the Jaguars, who have the league’s second-worst pressure rate. Jacksonville also has documented problems in their secondary, so Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson will be able to win their matchups easily.

Rodgers may not even have to do all that much because he’ll be able to lean on his rushing attack. The Jaguars have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so whether it’s Breece Hall or Braelon Allen, the Jets will be able to move the chains on the ground with ease.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While the Jaguars can’t get to the quarterback at all, the Jets have some players who can. They are about in the middle of the pack in pressure rate, which bodes well for them in this matchup because Jacksonville has some liabilities on the offensive line.

If Trevor Lawrence were quarterbacking the Jaguars, I’d have faith that he’d be able to overcome those pressure issues, but I’m certainly not as bullish on that situation with Mac Jones at the helm. Jones has one of the worst dichotomies when it comes to pressure rate. Obviously, all quarterbacks do worse when pressured, but Jones is in a different stratosphere. When kept clean, he completes 71.8 percent of his passes, maintaining a 6.5 YPA and a 7:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When pressured, he completes 46.2 percent of his passes with a 5.1 YPA and a 3:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Had this matchup occurred more than a month earlier, I’d say that Jones could lean on Tank Bigsby to help him get into short-yardage situations. However, the Jets have improved their run defense, so I wouldn’t expect much from the Jacksonville ground game.

RECAP: The Jets surprised me last week. They put forth a spirited performance against the Dolphins, as Rodgers had his best game of the year. Had they won, I’d be willing to fade them, but they seem like they’re hungry for a win. I think they’ll play hard at Jacksonville.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, figure to be deflated. They’re coming off a victory, which puts them into automatic fade territory because bad teams struggle to sustain success. Furthermore, the Jaguars have a terrible quarterback going up against great defensive players. Note that I didn’t say a “great defense” because the Jets have struggled as a unit, but they have some great players and a defensive-minded interim head coach who figure to make life difficult for Jones, especially if the pass rushers get home.

I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m making a big play on the Jets. I’ll probably regret it, but they seem like the obvious side. If they play as hard as they did last week, they’ll win this game going away. If they display a lackluster effort, they could still get there, given that the Jaguars won’t be at their best following a win. My only gripe here is that we’re not getting the -3 anymore. This would be a five-unit play at -3, but the sharps erased that line for us.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker missed Wednesday’s practice. Haason Reddick did as well, but only for an illness. I’m hoping that we get a viable -3 at some point.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going to have two plays in this game. I’m betting the Travis Etienne rushing yards and the Etienne over receiving yards. Etienne had just four carries last week, so how’s he going to get to 29 rushing yards? Etienne will have work in the passing game though, especially with Evan Engram sidelined. The best numbers are under 28.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM, and over 12.5 receiving yards -120 at DraftKings.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.J. Reed is out, but Sauce Gardner is set to return. Breece Hall could as well after practicing fully on Friday. One thing to worry about is that the Jets could be down both Alijah Vera-Tucker and Morgan Moses on top of Tyron Smith. My wager will be determined by who’s active on Sunday. The Jaguars, by the way, just lost Evan Engram. Outside of Brian Thomas Jr., they have no one left. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in Jets -3 -112 at DraftKings just in case this spread goes to -3.5 before kickoff. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyler Conklin is a surprise inactive, but that doesn’t matter to me. The sharps haven’t been on the Jets for the first time in forever, but they’re not on Jacksonville either. We locked in -3 -112 earlier, which was the correct move because the best line now is -3 -118 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Jaguars are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -3.

Computer Model: Jaguars -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Late money on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 73% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-97 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-28 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Jaguars are 65-110 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 73 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.