2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Redskins at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

Video of the Week: With the election coming up, it’s important to note how one of the candidates is handling interviews:

The former slave master has done such a great job with the border, so I don’t understand how she can’t come up with a concise answer.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It was shocking to see Jayden Daniels play last week, let alone heave a Hail Mary pass to prevail. Daniels was expected to miss last week’s game with a rib injury, yet he took the field and led his team to victory against a top-12 defense.

The Giants aren’t nearly as great on this side of the ball. Their showing against the Steelers was downright horrendous. They couldn’t stop the run at all, so Brian Robinson Jr. will pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. Daniels will also accelerate for some long gains on scrambles, as he was able to do last week.

This great running will set up easy throwing situations for Daniels. The Giants are better against the pass than the run, so Daniels can certainly use the help. It’s worth noting that the Giants are poor to receiving backs, so Robinson and Austin Ekeler figure to be big threats as pass-catchers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants were able to move the chains consistently against the Redskins in their Week 2 matchup. The difference was the injured kicker, as New York had to go for it on fourth down, even in goal-to-go situations.

I do not expect the Giants to be as productive this time for a couple of reasons. First, Andrew Thomas is sidelined, which makes a huge difference. The Redskins produce pressure at the 12th-highest clip in the NFL, so Jones won’t have nearly as much protection as he enjoyed in the first meeting. Second, the Redskins have improved defensively since then. Washington had a porous defense to begin the year, but the unit has improved markedly under Dan Quinn.

The Redskins are weaker to the run than the pass, but the Giants may not have their top back for this matchup. Tyrone Tracy has shown himself to be an electric runner, but he suffered a concussion on Monday night. He may not be able to return on a short work week.

RECAP: How will the Redskins respond from their Hail Mary victory? I wish I had a strong answer for you, but it’s truly unknown. It’s not like we can look at history because there’s such a small sample size. Since 2002, five teams have won on Hail Marys: The 2020 Cardinals, 2015 Packers, 2012 Seahawks, 2010 Jaguars, and 2002 Browns. The five teams are 2-3 against the spread after these games, with only Green Bay and Jacksonville covering. It’s worth noting that the Packers had a mini-bye afterward because their victory occurred on a Thursday night.

I’m willing to bet the Redskins despite this potential pitfall. The Giants are one of the five worst teams in the NFL. With Thomas sidelined, the Giants can’t block, and this affects Jones’ ability to get the ball to Malik Nabers. Meanwhile, the defense has been far worse in recent weeks. My projected line for this game is Washington -5.5, so even though we’re seeing the dreaded -3.5 posted, the Redskins seem like the right play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anyone who thought the -3.5 line was shady can breathe a sigh of relief because the books moved the spread to -4. Also, Tyrone Tracy missed Wednesday’s practice. It’ll be a surprise if he plays.

PLAYER PROPS: I want the Brian Robinson rushing yards over, but that prop is currently unavailable. I’ll check back on this one later.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants won’t have their kicker once again. Luckily, we won’t have to worry about that this time because we’re on the Redskins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brian Robinson is out, but that doesn’t change my evaluation of this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one. The best line is -4 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Unknown.

The Redskins won on a Hail Mary. How will they respond?

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.

Computer Model: Redskins -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Washington: 87% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Giants have won 25 of the last 36 meetings (except the 2022 tie).

Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.