2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Jaguars at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars received some great news Monday evening. It was initially announced that Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis all suffered injuries and could all miss multiple weeks. Just when everything was looking extremely bleak, it was reported that Thomas’ injury is just a day-to-day matter, rather than an injury that was going to span 2-4 weeks.

It’s still unclear if Thomas will be ready this week, but Jacksonville will need him with Kirk out indefinitely with a broken collar bone and Davis banged up as well. Then again, it may not matter at all if the Jaguars are outmatched as they appear to be against the Eagles. Philadelphia’s defense has improved markedly since the bye. The secondary has limited some of the talented receivers it has faced recently, while the front line has gotten after the quarterback more effectively lately. This latter factor is not great news for Trevor Lawrence, who is often under siege.

It doesn’t appear as though the Jaguars will be able to run the ball well either. Tank Bigsby has been a great improvement over the ineffective Travis Etienne, but this is a difficult matchup. Following a slow start in this regard, the Eagles have defended the rush well of late. No single rusher has gained more than 49 yards on the ground against them since Week 3.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles defense isn’t the only unit that has improved since the bye. Philadelphia has scored much more consistently after the idle week. Of course, this was expected because Lane Johnson and the top two receivers were sidelined. No wonder the Eagles have scored more with everyone back on the field.

Well, not everyone is back for Philadelphia, as Dallas Goedert is still sidelined. I mention Goedert because the Jaguars are very weak to tight ends. They used to also struggle against No. 1 receivers, but Tyson Campbell’s return helped change that. A.J. Brown could still have a big game, but it’s not an easy matchup for him.

The Philadelphia skill player most likely to go off is Saquon Barkley. The dynamic back has an incredibly easy matchup as a receiver out of the backfield. Jacksonville has surrendered some big gains to pass-catching backs, and Barkley is obviously very capable at going the distance after he snatches the ball.

RECAP: I may have been one week early on my fade of the Eagles. I thought they’d be flat against the Bengals because they clobbered the Giants. Everyone is now calling them one of the best teams in the NFL. When the Eagles haven’t been the top team in the NFL, they’ve disappointed in these spots. Furthermore, Philadelphia has the Cowboys coming up next week, so this could be a look-ahead situation.

Despite this, I’m not sure if I can quite get behind backing a bad team like the Jaguars. I may have done so a week ago, but Jacksonville suddenly has cluster injuries. The team will be missing Kirk, and perhaps also Thomas and Davis, so Lawrence will have to rely on guys like Parker Washington to move the chains, which doesn’t sound appealing at all. I’ll be passing on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacksonville’s offensive line could be a disaster in this game. Cam Robinson was traded, while both Brandon Scherff and Ezra Cleveland missed Wednesday’s practice. Brian Thomas Jr. was at least limited.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m looking to bet some of the tertiary pieces in this game, whether it’s Parker Washington or Grant Calcaterra, but those aren’t available yet because of injury question marks.

SATURDAY NOTES: I switching to the Eagles because the Jaguars are so banged up. I may end up betting this game depending on the inactives list. There are too many question marks at the moment.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: We’ll be betting this game depending on the injury status of the Jaguars, so check back around 3:30 for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brian Thomas Jr. will play, so I don’t see a great betting opportunity in this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one. I still would side with the Eagles. The best line is -7 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are coming off a blowout win, and they play the Cowboys next.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 79% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Jaguars are 63-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 19-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 47/5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.