2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Rams at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It was quite the surprise that Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both returned last week to play the entire game. Kupp was expected, but Nacua was an utter shock. The Rams, as a result, moved the chains with ease against the Vikings.

The Seahawks haven’t maintained a healthy secondary lately, so the Rams should be able to pick up where they left off last Thursday. Seattle will attempt to counter this with its terrific top-10 pass rush, but the Rams protect Matthew Stafford well.

Of course, Stafford is likely to operate out of favorable down-and-distance situations because of how porous the Seahawks’ run defense is. Seattle has been gashed against the run all year, and Kyren Williams will certainly continue what opposing backs have done to this defense.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Rams endured their injury issues at receiver earlier in the year, the Seahawks are experiencing that phenomenon now. D.K. Metcalf missed last week’s game with a knee injury. Mike Macdonald said that Metcalf’s chances of playing are “looking optimistic,” though it’s unclear if the dynamic receiver will be operating at 100 percent.

Geno Smith will need Metcalf back on the field because the offense didn’t have nearly as much juice last week as it usually does. It won’t help matters that Smith will have to deal with a pass rush that generates pressure more often than any other team in the NFL except for the Vikings. Smith’s protection has been shaky at times this year, so this is not good news for Seattle.

Like the Rams, the Seahawks have a talented back they can deploy. Kenneth Walker has been excellent in most games this year. Los Angeles isn’t horrible against the run, but the team doesn’t exactly shine in this category either, so Walker figures to have a nice game.

RECAP: As of Tuesday evening, there’s more sharp money on the Seahawks than any other team in the NFL this week except for the Bears. One professional bettor I follow on Twitter posted a $1,000 ticket on Seattle.

I’m a bit surprised by this because I like the Rams. I get that the Seahawks are a somewhat decent team coming off an embarrassing loss, but it’s not like the Rams will be flat, or anything, even off an upset because this game means so much. This is a battle for first place in the NFC West. I don’t think Seattle has the motivational edge.

Besides, the Rams have owned the Seahawks over the years. They’ve won 14 of the 21 previous meetings. Perhaps this dynamic will change with a new coaching staff in Seattle, but the Rams are the better team. They possess the superior defense (No. 5 in adjusted EPA), and their receiving corps is healthier. The EPA numbers say that the Rams should be a 6.5-point favorite, and while my own personal numbers aren’t as bullish, I like seeing that because the Rams make for an appealing team to bet this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: D.K. Metcalf didn’t practice Wednesday, but it sounds as though he’ll be able to return to action this week. He may not be 100 percent, however.

PLAYER PROPS: It’s currently unknown if Puka Nacua and D.K. Metcalf will play, so the receiving props aren’t available yet. I also have interest in Kyren Williams, but Nacua’s status affects that because Williams will get more carries if his team is leading, and there’s a greater chance that will occur if Nacua is playing.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.K. Metcalf is out. Puka Nacua’s status is unknown, but he had the dreaded flood (Full-Limited-DNP) in practice this week, so he’s trending toward sitting. I’m going to drop the unit count for now. If Nacua plays and projects to be close to 100 percent, I’ll put them back.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: We’re still waiting on Puka Nacua’s status, but I’d be worried that he’s not 100 percent. I may just not bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Reports indicate that Puka Nacua is “full go,” but the Rams can’t be trusted to tell the truth at all. I still would side with the Rams. There’s been sharp action on both sides of this game. The best line is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Late bets coming in on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 69% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 14 of the last 21 meetings.

Seahawks are 60-47 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 53 degrees. Light wind.