2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Chargers at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 20-14 ATS through seven weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -12.5

Steelers -6

Ravens -7.5

Chiefs -8.5

Packers -3.5

Jets -7

Texans -5

The public was 7-14 heading into Week 6. Well, in Week 6, every single public side won. All six. And in Week 7, every single public side won. All seven. This was truly unbelievable. The publicly backed sides were now 20-14 on the year, as sportsbooks had taken a huge beating.

Well, the turntables turned in Week 8 because the public was 2-5, only winning with the Lions and Steelers. Many teasers surely failed as well with Baltimore losing outright. The public is now 22-19.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Redskins -3.5

Texans +2

Lions -3.5

Vikings -6

Bills -6.5

Eagles -7.5

Patriots +3.5

If you’ve parlayed all the publicly backed teams the past two weeks, you’re doing very well for yourself right now. Will this continue?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: My dad called me Sunday morning to see who I liked in the Cleveland-Baltimore game – he doesn’t know how to access this Web site or my YouTube channel – and I told him I was on the Browns. “Why? They can’t score!” he argued. I told him that it was a new day in Cleveland because Jameis Winston was slated to start. “Besides, Baltimore’s defense sucks,” I said. Indeed, Cleveland had a rare offensive outburst in an upset victory over the Ravens.

I wouldn’t be too fooled by Winston. Yes, he’s much better than Deshaun Watson, but he can also be erratic with the ball. He was battling an already-poor Baltimore secondary missing its top two cornerbacks, and he was lucky that the game-deciding interception was dropped. He’ll now be confronted with a much more difficult matchup in this game. Whereas the Ravens are 23rd in adjusted defensive EPA, the Chargers are second. San Angeles doesn’t give up much to outside receivers, so Cedric Tillman won’t repeat his Week 8 performance. The only area of weakness from the pass defense is what the Chargers allow to tight ends, so David Njoku will be the only functional player in Cleveland’s aerial attack.

The Chargers also happen to be stout against the run in most cases. They had a rare poor performance in this regard last Monday night against Arizona, but they rank sixth versus ground games. Nick Chubb isn’t 100 percent anyway, so I wouldn’t count on much from him.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Most casual fans will consider the Browns to have a great defense as well, but that hasn’t been the case. Cleveland is 21st in adjusted defensive EPA, and the team will be short-handed on this side of the ball this week. Denzel Ward suffered yet another concussion – the sixth of his career – while Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was taken off the field on a stretcher during Sunday’s game. Outside of Myles Garrett, these are Cleveland’s top two defensive players.

Owusu-Koramoah was outstanding in run defense, so he’ll sorely be missed in this matchup. J.K. Dobbins has enjoyed a fantastic season coming back from a torn Achilles, so he projects well without Cleveland’s star linebacker being on the field.

Meanwhile, Justin Herbert needs every break he can get because of his lackluster receiving corps. His wideouts didn’t project well against a secondary with Ward in it, but with the top cornerback sidelined, Herbert shouldn’t have issues throwing the ball, given that the rest of Cleveland’s cornerbacks have struggled this year. Herbert is also well protected, so Garrett won’t be as big of a factor as he normally is against mediocre or worse tackles.

RECAP: I wrote in the previous capsule that it’s often a winning strategy to fade bad teams coming off big upset victories. This, of course, applies to Cleveland. I wouldn’t say that the Browns are horrible like the Patriots, Titans, or Panthers, but they’re not very good, especially with their new defensive injuries to Owusu-Koramoah and Ward. Their game last week against the Ravens was their “Super Bowl.” They know that they have no hope of reaching the playoffs, so how can they possibly put forth the same effort after their big win?

The Chargers are the better team, and we’re getting some amazing line value. The advance spread was +3.5, and now it’s only +2, which seems like quite the overreaction to one game. The EPA numbers say that this spread should be Chargers -3.5, so there shouldn’t have been any movement.

One thing that may keep bettors away from the Chargers is that they’re playing an early game on the East Coast. This should not be a worry of any sort. In fact, it’s a positive for the Chargers because Jim Harbaugh is 7-1 against the spread in this situation during his coaching career. The only such loss was against the Steelers this year when Herbert had to leave the game with an injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah nor Denzel Ward practiced Wednesday, as expected. Joel Bitonio also missed Wednesday’s practice. Bitonio being sidelined would be huge, as the Browns would have cluster offensive line injuries against the Chargers’ talented pass rush.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing yet because I wanted to bet the David Njoku over, but he was DNP on Thursday. We’ll have to check in on this later. Update: I’m betting the Njoku over receiving yards, as the Chargers tend to allow lots of yardage over the middle of the field. Njoku is now Cleveland’s No. 1 receiver, so 51.5 seems more than reasonable. The best number is over 51.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has been ruled out. Denzel Ward is questionable, but he was only limited on Friday. Given that this is his sixth concussion, I’d be shocked if he plays. David Njoku and Joel Bitonio will play, but I still love the Chargers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Denzel Ward will play, which is a bummer, but I still like the Chargers a lot. The sharps have been on the Browns, but I’m not concerned about that. The best line is -2 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Browns are coming off their “Super Bowl” win.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The Browns are a public home dog.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 60% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.