2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Raiders at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It was shocking to see the Bengals lose in blowout fashion against the Eagles because of how they dominated the opening quarter. They played keep-away so well, as Joe Burrow converted numerous third-and-long situations and led two scoring drives.

Things ultimately fell apart for the Bengals for several reasons, one of which was Tee Higgins’ absence. It’s unclear if Higgins will be able to return this week, but the Bengals certainly need him because they don’t have much else going for them. With Higgins sidelined, Burrow had to rely on Mike Gesicki, which is not ideal. Burrow also saw plenty of pressure, which he’ll confront again this week with Maxx Crosby getting healthier. Crosby saw a season-high 72 snaps last week.

Burrow could avoid this pressure if he were able to lean on a strong ground attack, but the Bengals don’t have anything of that nature. Chase Brown can get some big gains because he runs like he’s shot out of a cannon, but the blocking often isn’t there for him. The Raiders are mediocre to the run, so this doesn’t seem like the sort of matchup Brown could exploit.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Burrow could lean on a good defense in past years, but that’s not the case anymore either. The best thing the Bengals do on this side of the ball is rush the passer on the edge, and yet they’re below average as far as pressure rate is concerned.

The Raiders’ biggest offensive problem is pass protection, so Gardner Minshew won’t be hounded as often as he usually is. He received some help last week with Jakobi Meyers returning to action. This is big for this game because Cincinnati is dreadful at cornerback. Meyers and Brock Bowers both figure to thrive in this matchup.

Minshew might be able to lean on the rushing attack a bit as well. As with Cincinnati, Las Vegas doesn’t run block very well, but the Bengals are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to stopping ground attacks.

RECAP: This game mirrors the one I wrote up above this one. The Bengals, like the Ravens, are big favorites over an AFC West opponent with an impending Thursday night battle.

I trust the Broncos to cover the spread more than the Raiders, so I won’t be betting as much on this game. However, I still really like Las Vegas. The Bengals are a bad team that doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown over anyone except for maybe the Panthers. Yes, they have Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, but what else? They can’t block. They can’t run the ball. They’re 11th worst in pressure rate. They can’t stop the run. They can’t stop the pass. And their head coach does stupid stuff with the game on the line. The Bengals nearly lost to the Giants, and they were blown out by the Eagles last week. There’s no way they should be -7.5 over the Raiders, and that’s not even factoring in any look-ahead spots.

Again, I can’t quite bet five units on the Raiders, but they are getting healthier. Meyers returned last week, and perhaps Dylan Parham will play this Sunday. Even if that’s not the case, both my projected lines say this spread should be -5.5 and -4.5. The value is certainly there, but we just need to hope that Minshew doesn’t self-destruct, which he shouldn’t do against a bad defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins didn’t practice Wednesday. I predict that he won’t play because of the impending Thursday night game. Some sharp money moved this line toward the Raiders.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re betting Zack Moss’ receiving yardage prop. Moss has eclipsed 20 receiving yards in five of the past six weeks. He’s also going to get more of a workload in this game because the Bengals will want to preserve Chase Brown with another game in four days. The best number is over 18.5 receiving yards -115 on DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m bumping this up to five units. The Bengals won’t have their best offensive lineman, Orlando Brown, which sounds terrible against Maxx Crosby. Tee Higgins won’t play either. The Bengals are clearly preserving these guys for the Thursday night game, so they won’t be focused at all for the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders will have Dylan Parham and Robert Spillane. The Bengals won’t have Tee Higgins. This is all great news. I love the Raiders, though the sharps are on the other side. The best line is +8 -110 at BetMGM and DraftKings. I’m also betting the moneyline, and the best number is +320, also at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Bengals play the Ravens in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -8.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Lots of action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 77% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Joe Burrow is 17-7 ATS after a loss.

Joe Burrow is 3-6 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown.

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 70 degrees. Light wind.