2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Broncos at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix has performed well in the past couple of weeks, but some may think that Nix going up against Baltimore’s defense may seem like too daunting of a task for him. Anyone with this mindset has a serious ‘member berry problem because Baltimore no longer has a dominant stop unit. This is a positive matchup for Nix.

The Ravens have maintained one of the 10 worst defenses in the NFL this year. They’re absolutely horrendous against the pass. They had no answer for Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore last week. Courtland Sutton, who is coming off a 100-yard performance, figures to thrive in this very favorable matchup. Nix will have all the time he needs to find him, as his healthy offensive line will keep Baltimore’s mediocre pass rush at bay.

Though the Ravens can’t stop the pass, they’re not terrible everywhere on this side of the ball. They happen to defend the run extremely well, so Javonte Williams won’t do much. Baltimore, however, doesn’t defend the middle of the field well, so the Broncos can exploit this with their receiving backs, as well as Lucas Krull.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens don’t just have flaws on the defensive side of the ball. They also have their issues on offense, though you wouldn’t know it because of their many great outputs this season.

The big issue on this side of the ball is the pass protection. Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum are great, but Baltimore’s three other offensive linemen can’t shield Lamar Jackson from pass rushers. The Ravens have been able to mask this liability with their stellar running game, but when they can’t run, they get into trouble. Establishing Derrick Henry won’t be so easy against a solid Denver ground defense that put the clamps on Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara this season.

The Broncos have the seventh-best pressure rate in the NFL, so they’ll hound Jackson. Patrick Surtain II will be able to limit Zay Flowers when he covers him, which will force Jackson to look elsewhere.

RECAP: I love the Broncos this week. We’ve been on them for big bets quite a bit dating back to Week 3 when we wagered four units on them as they took on the Buccaneers. We also bet them heavily when they played the Jets, and then we pounded them last week against the Panthers. We’re going back to the well one more time.

There are so many reasons to love the Broncos. In regard to the matchup, the Ravens had cluster injuries at cornerback last week. There’s no guarantee they’ll have their players back for this game, but even if they do, Baltimore’s secondary has been a disaster all year. Sutton just had a huge game, and he could have another big performance in this easy matchup. Meanwhile, Denver’s rush defense should be able to limit Henry.

The motivational factor points in Denver’s direction as well. The Ravens have to play their next game in just four days, as they’ll be battling the Bengals on Thursday night. There’s a long history of big favorites struggling ahead of Thursday night affairs, and we’ve seen that happen on several occasions this year. The 49ers and Seahawks lost to the Cardinals and Giants, respectively, prior to battling each other. The Rams barely got by the Raiders a couple of weeks ago before going up against Minnesota. Last week, the Texans nearly lost the Colts. Cincinnati is a big rival for the Ravens, who will be looking ahead to that game.

The Broncos get the edge as far as the spread is concerned, too. Because the Ravens are overrated – their defense ranks 23rd in adjusted EPA – the line is heavily inflated in their favor. My calculated line is only Baltimore -5. Amazingly, the adjusted EPA numbers say this line should be Baltimore -2. The metrics do not like the Ravens.

Given that there are so many things favoring the Broncos, this will be my top play of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday’s practice with back and knee injuries. John Harbaugh called it a load management day, but if that were the case, why not just list him as “rest?” Why the two injuries?

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m posting this early because of the Lamar Jackson news. Jackson missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday. He probably will play – I expect him to – but if he’s ruled out, this line will plummet, so I want to make sure we get the +8. The best line is +8 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Courtland Sutton’s over receiving yards last week, and we’re going to do it again. Baltimore’s secondary is a mess. Cedric Tillman even went off against them. Sutton should have a great game. The best number is over 48.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: It turns out that I didn’t need to lock in this pick early. In fact, I should have waited because the spread moved back to +9.5. Still, if Lamar Jackson had been ruled out, we would have completely lost this line. Nine is a dead number anyway, so I’m still OK with it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the move to +9 doesn’t bother me. The sharps are on Denver. I’m going to bet the moneyline, which is +379 at Bookmaker. The best line is also at Bookmaker, which is +9 -109. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Ravens have to play the Bengals in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -8.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 53% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Lamar Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Light wind.