2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Buccaneers at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Tampa Bay Schmuckaneers take on the Kansas Chiefs. Guys, I realy hate these teams. My Philadelphia Eagles played the Chiefs in the Super Game, and they said we lost when we really won. I even called the NFL offices, and this woman named Georgia answered, and I asked her to find my Philadelphia Eagles four more points so we could win 39-38. She said she would call me back later, so I think what’s going to happen is that she’s eventually going to find the points, and my Philadelphia Eagles will secretly be crowned Super Bowl champions once again!

Emmitt: Thanks, Cid. This remind me the time I call customer servers hotline. I buyed a new TV, and he do not work, no matter how many time I push the button. The guy on the phone ask me if I plug it in, and I said, yes of course, I plug the two metal thing into the two hole. And then he ask if the remove control have battery, and I say yes. And then he ask me if I buyed a toaster instead of a TV by accidentalment, and that is when I realize that I was trying to turn on my toaster the entire times.

Reilly: Emmitt, believe me, you’re not the only one who made a mistake like this. Mother asked me to make toast for her once, but I didn’t know how, so I turned on the TV to watch highlights of my Philadelphia Eagles, so she didn’t have toast that night, and Mother grounded me.

Tollefson: Reilly, you are such a wuss. What sort of man uses a toaster, or a microwave, or an oven? This is all a women’s job, and if you were a real man, women across the Delaware Valley would be lining up outside your house to work your toaster, microwave, and oven for you. And if there are no women lining up, just go down to the local bar, follow a woman into the bathroom, strangle her, and then carry her body to your cellar.

Reilly: Tolly, Mother says if I touch any girls, it’ll be seven years of bad luck for me. And I can’t afford seven years of bad luck because what if my Nick Foles bobblehead collection catches on fire? I can’t afford to live without my Nick Foles bobblehead doll collection. Speaking of women who can’t touch me, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have some breaking news. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and MCL, so he’ll miss the opening drive of this game, but he plans to return shortly later. I’m here with a tiny Asian man. I’m not sure what your name is. What’s your name, little guy?

Kim Jung Un: My name Kim Jung-Un, and I want arr NFL game pray in North Korea. I hate American except for Donard Trump and Dennis Rodman. And guy who say kidnap women good idea. I going to kidnap you Charissa Thompson and rock you in my cerrar, hwa hwa hwa hwa!

Charissa Thompson: What did you just say? Ugh, these interviews are so boring. Why do you think NFL games deserve to be in, wait, what country are you from again? Japan?

Kim Jung Un: This why woman stupid and must obey arr order! NFR game berong in North Korea because we have citizen who do everything I say, and if they do not forrow direction, I going to kirr them! Brow them up with rarge rocket!

Reilly: Hey King Jong Moon, why are you talking in a stereotypical Asian voice? That’s going to get someone in trouble here. Don’t you know that this might be offensive to some people, like the losers who pretended to be offended by the Puerto Rico joke? Camel Toe Harris, when you win the presidency, can you throw this King Jong Moon guy in prison because he’s being so mean to Asian folks?

Kamala Harris: In the last four years, I have been the vice president of the United States. And in those four years, I have done a lot of things. I talked to a lot of people in those four years. And in those conversations, I’ve learned what dreams, hopes, and aspirations these Americans have. I’ve learned a lot in those four years. But what I didn’t learn anything about were rockets. Did you know that rockets are things that rocket up to the stars? That’s where the word comes from. Rockets rocket up high, HAHAHAAHAHA! Isn’t that something? Rockets rocket up? It’s like they invented the word so the other word matches the other word, and then you can use the two words together and it sounds the same. Rocket rockets HAHAHAAHAHAA!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, this is another example where you are a total loser and a total disgrace, you know nothing about rockets, even Little Rocket Man knows more about rockets than you, and he doesn’t know anything about rockets, which is pathetic, frankly, because he talks about having rockets and fancy buttons to use those rockets, but his button is so small, he probably can’t even see it under a microscope, and his rockets don’t actually work, and only a total loser like Kamala would believe that his rockets work, but they don’t work, nothing in North Korea works because it’s a s**thole country, believe me, I’ve been to North Korea, the only president ever to go into North Korea, and no one could believe it when I walked in, and I could see the fake cities they have in North Korea, they are very fake, even faker than Kamala’s personality, and they’re called Potemkin Villages, and if Kamala becomes president she’ll be a Potemkin president, but let’s face it, she’s not going to be president because she’s a total loser and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, IT’S FUNNY THAT YOU BRING UP POTEMKIN VILLAGES BECAUSE MY SEVENTH UNCLE IS A POTEMKIN UNCLE WITH TENNIS BALLS FOR EYES.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! We need to concentrate on finding these points so we can add it to my Philadelphia Eagles score and then laugh in the Chiefs face. Ha! My Philadelphia Eagles are the real winners of that Super Bowl. Tell them, New Daddy. Tell them who the real winner of that Super Bowl was!

Jay Cutler: Bears.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, we weren’t even talking about the Bears! Get your act together, or you’ll be a Pumptemkin Daddy!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about Potemkin Villages, Kevin. Let’s discuss some Potemkin Villages, Kevin. How about we begin with Theranos, Kevin. We can segue into Suzdal, Kevin. How about Tiefort City, Kevin? Care to share about Theresienstadt, Kevin? Last but not least there’s Kijong-dong, Kevin. Let’s not confuse that with regular dongs, Kevin, which you don’t have, Kevin, because you are a woman, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I SWEAR I’M A MAN, AND EVEN IF I CAN’T PROVE IT, I’LL HAVE GEORGIA FIND MY Y CHROMOSOME AFTER SHE FINDS POINTS BELONGING TO MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, AND THEN YOU’LL CRY YOURSELF TO SLEEP WHEN I PROVE YOU WRONG! We’ll be back after this!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This would have been an excellent matchup a few weeks ago. Kansas City has one of the top defenses in the NFL against the run, but can be beaten via the pass. The Buccaneers had one of the top aerial assaults in the NFL with Mayfield throwing to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

That’s obviously not the case anymore. Mayfield had a small amount of success against the Saints, but he was picked twice and wasn’t the same without his two stellar receivers. Mayfield still has Cade Otton at his disposal, and the Chiefs tend to be weak against tight ends, but given the lack of talent Tampa Bay now has at wideout, Steve Spagunolo can afford to concentrate more on Otton.

Spagnuolo will also be able to handle the Tampa Bay rushing attack. Bucky Irving has proven to be an upgrade over Rachaad White, but the Chiefs have one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so Irving won’t be able to gain much on the ground.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There won’t be much running from either team in this game. The Buccaneers have been able to stymie opposing ground attacks very well this year as long as Vita Vea has been on the field. Kareem Hunt has enjoyed some positive performances since taking over as the starting running back, but he won’t do nearly as well in this matchup.

The Chiefs will have much more success throwing the ball. Receiver isn’t the only position in which the Buccaneers have cluster injuries. They were missing their top two cornerbacks last week, so they’re going to have trouble covering a receiving corps that added DeAndre Hopkins. The veteran wideout didn’t do much in his first game, but he’ll know more of the playbook this week.

Of course, there’s also Travis Kelce, who presents a huge problem for the Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams at covering tight ends, as evidenced by multiple-touchdown performances by Kyle Pitts and Mark Andrews the past couple of weeks. Kelce figures to have a huge night.

RECAP: The Chiefs are obviously the better team in this matchup, but will they win by margin? They have a history of not doing so in the regular season. They just beat the Raiders by only seven, after all. Granted, Las Vegas got there via a back-door touchdown, but Mayfield is capable of doing that.

I’d like Mayfield’s chances of back-dooring the Chiefs much more if he had his receivers available, but that’s obviously not the case. Still, I find myself wondering why the Chiefs would put forth maximum effort in this game. They have a divisional battle against the Broncos after this contest, and I can’t see them taking Tampa Bay seriously.

This is Buccaneers or nothing for me because we won’t see Kansas City’s top effort, but I’m not excited about backing a team with cluster injuries at multiple positions.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s nothing new to say here, given that we haven’t had an injury report yet. Evan made a good case for the Buccaneers during our Tuesday YouTube episode:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers were already a defensive mess, and now they may not have Lavonte David because he missed two practices to start the week.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Lavonte David doesn’t have an injury designation, which is huge for the Buccaneers. I still lean Tampa Bay, but probably won’t be betting this one.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I don’t plan on betting this game. In fact, I’m close to switching to the Chiefs. There’s a decent chance the Buccaneers get a back-door cover, but that’s what we’re counting on in this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. I’ll have my player prop bets and same-game parlay posted shortly.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love Cade Otton tonight. The Chiefs have been incapable of stopping tight ends this year – remember Isaiah Likely in Week 1? – and Baker Mayfield has no viable receivers remaining. The best number is over 51.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

I’m going to toss in the Otton prop with Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards, Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions, and Rachaad White over 24.5 receiving yards. The Buccaneers are also weak to tight ends. Mayfield will have to throw a lot, which means he’s likely to throw a pick, especially given that he’s second in the NFL in interceptions. Mayfield also figures to target White heavily. This $25 parlay is boosted 20 percent at BetMGM, and it pays $232.50.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, I won’t be betting this game. The sharps haven’t taken a side either. If you want to bet the Buccaneers, the best line is +9 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Chiefs play the Broncos next week.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -10.

Computer Model: Chiefs -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 52% (248,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Road Team is 138-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Patrick Mahomes is 91-24 SU, 63-50 ATS (49-37 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.