2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Cowboys at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: There was sharp money on the Cowboys early last week because many expected Micah Parsons to return to action. When Parsons was declared out, pro money went in on San Francisco. Of course, it helped that George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were both expected to play, but Parsons’ absence played a large factor in this reversal.

It would be shocking if Parsons didn’t return this week. Kirk Cousins is someone who doesn’t handle pressure very well – in comparison to other quarterbacks – and we saw this in Week 1 when T.J. Watt obliterated Cousins in a Pittsburgh victory. Parsons, assuming he’s healthy, is someone who can dominate a game in the same manner as Watt.

Parsons will be needed because the Cowboys have had cluster injuries at cornerback. What Parsons won’t be able to help with, however, is the leaky run defense. Isaac Guerendo just trampled the Cowboys, so Bijan Robinson projects incredibly well in this matchup.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Of course, Parsons can only do so much, and he has no impact on the offense unless he helps the team establish a lead. The Cowboys will need to address their offensive line this spring because they can’t block well. Left tackle Tyler Guyton can be described as a human turnstile, though he’s coming off his best game as a pro.

Luckily for Dak Prescott, he won’t have to worry very much about a pass rush in this game. The Falcons have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, as Matthew Judon has been a huge disappointment in Atlanta. Perhaps he’ll bounce back in the second half of the season, but if he doesn’t improve this week, Prescott will have all the time in the world to locate his weapons, including CeeDee Lamb, who has a dream matchup against an Atlanta secondary that can’t cover slot receivers.

The Cowboys don’t project very well on the ground, but that’s nothing new. The Falcons are better versus the rush than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect much out of Rico Dowdle if he plays this week.

RECAP: This game is extremely unappealing because I’d like to fade both teams. Parsons is coming back for the Cowboys, but it’s not like their defense was very good when he was playing. This team still has some major problems, yet is considered a playoff contender by many. Net adjusted EPA suggests that Dallas is one of the five worst teams in the NFL, and while I don’t think the Cowboys are that bad, I do think that Dallas should be faded because the public is overrating them

So, why not the Falcons? I also think Atlanta is overrated. The offense can be electric, but the defense is horrible. Plus, the Falcons are coming off a very important victory against the Buccaneers in which they established complete control of the division. The Falcons know that they don’t need this game because they’ll still be effectively up two games on the Buccaneers because Tampa Bay has to deal with Kansas City this week.

Due to the lack of motivation on Atlanta’s part, I’m going to be on the Cowboys, but I really don’t like the prospect of betting them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but Micah Parsons is not off to a great start. He was DNP in Wednesday’s practice, but he has plenty of time to return to practice.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re betting the CeeDee Lamb over receiving yards. The Falcons are weak to slot receivers, and Dallas figures to be playing from behind, so if that’s true, Dak Prescott will have to target Lamb frequently in the second half. The best number is over 82.5 receiving yards -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Micah Parsons is out. The Cowboys will likely be without their top two cornerbacks as well. Meanwhile, the Falcons might get back Drew Dalman and Troy Andersen. I had the Cowboys down as a possible selection earlier in the week, but I’m going to be on Atlanta for two units. After thinking about it, I don’t think the Falcons will be too deflated after beating the Buccaneers, given that the Cowboys are viewed favorably by the media.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I had two units written down here, but with Trevon Diggs being a surprise return after being DNP all week, I don’t want to bet Atlanta. The sharps took the Falcons at -2.5, but not at -3. The best line is -3 -115 at BetRivers and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cowboys.

The Falcons just had a huge win over the Buccaneers.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The Cowboys are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 63% (130,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.