2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Lions at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 6: Bombs Away! Read about how I was almost killed at the Cosmopolitan.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Packers because we don’t know which quarterback they’ll be starting this week. “No Cookie” Jordan Love injured his groin against the Jaguars and had to leave the game. It didn’t appear to be a serious injury, but he could be kept out of this contest. If so, Malik Willis will get the nod once again.

This matchup would have been far more difficult for Willis a few weeks ago. That’s when Aidan Hutchinson was healthy. Hutchinson’s injury has diminished the pass rush, which allowed Calvin Ridley to generate 100-plus receiving yards in the first quarter against Detroit’s secondary. The Titans didn’t even have any viable receivers beyond Ridley, and it’s not like Ridley was catching passes from a great quarterback. Imagine what Green Bay’s receivers will do in this matchup.

The Packers won’t have as much success running the ball with Josh Jacobs. The former Raider put together a strong performance last week, but the Lions have one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions are stout versus the run, the Packers tend to be weak against it. They got off to a strong start in that regard earlier in the season, but they’ve struggled against the rush lately. They rank 26th against ground attacks over the past four weeks.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should have plenty of success trampling Green Bay’s front seven, which will set up easy play-action opportunities for Jared Goff. The veteran quarterback will need those, given that the Packers are much better at containing aerial attacks.

The Packers are at their best when it comes to stopping the pass on the outside. That would come into play against Jameson Williams, but he’s still suspended. Green Bay will have a bigger problem against Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

RECAP: It’s not yet known who will start for the Packers, but I’m going to assume it’s Willis just based on the spread. Detroit being favored by 3.5-4 on the road doesn’t suggest that Love will be returning early from his groin injury.

If Willis starts, I’ll be on the Packers. Willis has proven that he can hold down the fort while Love is dealing with an injury. I also love backing reserve quarterbacks against non-elite defenses, and considering Hutchinson’s absence and the state of the secondary, we can safely say that the Lions don’t have an elite defense.

In fact, I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest that the Lions are trending into overrated territory. That may seem odd to say considering that they just won 52-14, but they were outgained by 200 yards and averaged 1.1 fewer yards per play than the Titans. They just made big plays on special teams, which won’t happen every week.

Something else to consider is that this is the first time Goff will be playing outdoors all year. Goff has historically played far worse outside in the elements as opposed to being indoors, and there is rain in the early forecast. I’ll be betting heavily on the Packers unless Love attempts to once again return early from his injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As of Thursday morning, there’s more sharp money on the Packers than any other team. Despite this, “No Cookie” Jordan Love missed Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: Jordan Love’s status means that most of the Packer props are off the board, so we’ll have to wait for those.

SATURDAY NOTES: The weather looks grim for Jared Goff. It’s going to be rainy and windy, and Goff never plays well in the elements. I wish we knew if “No Cookie” Jordan Love would be out, but we don’t at the moment. I have no interest in the Packers with Love because he may be hindered with his injury. I’d prefer Green Bay with Malik Willis, assuming that comes with a line of +3.5 or better.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: We’re waiting for confirmation on “No Cookie” Jordan Love. If he’s in, I’ll be betting the Lions.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Love will play. This is a mistake because he’s once again returning too early from an injury. I’m not loving the weather in Green Bay, which is the only thing keeping me off making this a big play. I’m still willing to bet the Lions for two units, though the sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is Detroit -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.

Computer Model: Lions -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 66% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Lions have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Packers are 65-41 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Packers are 9-5 ATS as home underdogs since 2007.

Matt LaFleur is 53-37 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Lions -4.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Rain, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.