2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Bears at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams had improved each week heading into last Sunday’s game, but he finally suffered a setback. This wasn’t a surprise, given how good Washington’s defense has been in recent weeks. Dan Quinn has done a terrific job improving Ron Rivera’s horrific unit. The Redskins are close to 10th in pressure rate, so they were able to harass Williams all afternoon.

Williams won’t face such difficulty in this matchup. The Cardinals don’t have anything near a top-10 pressure rate. In fact, they’re ranked third-to-last in that regard. With a much cleaner pocket, Williams will be able to locate his talented receivers against a secondary that isn’t very good.

The Bears should be able to run the ball effectively, too. D’Andre Swift had a horrific start to his Chicago tenure, but has somehow become a dynamic back again. The Cardinals often struggle against the run, so Swift should once again have another strong performance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray got off to a slow start against the Dolphins, but had a terrific fourth quarter. He was at his best moving out of the pocket and looping passes back over the middle of the field. It felt like many of these passes would normally have been intercepted, but it didn’t seem as though Miami’s inept coaching staff understood what was happening.

Murray will have a tougher matchup this Sunday. Miami was down three of its better pass rushers last week, so it had no answer for Murray in the fourth quarter. The Bears are able to generate a heavy pass rush, so Murray won’t have as much time to find Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride.

The Bears are at their weakest on this side of the ball when attempting to stop the run. Like Swift, James Conner should have a great performance, and I trust Conner more than his counterpart.

RECAP: One thing I wanted to know heading into this game was how teams recovered from losing on a Hail Mary. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much of a sample size. Since 2002, there have been five Hail Mary victories in the regular season. The most recent team to lose, the Bills (to the Cardinals in 2020), rebounded with a win and cover, but had a bye week after the fact. The other four losers were the 2015 Lions, 2012 Packers, 2010 Texans, and 2002 Jaguars. Detroit and Green Bay failed to cover, while Jacksonville and Houston covered. So, there’s not much to go off of, as you can see.

Regardless, I like the Bears to rebound from their loss, and that has more to do with the opponent’s motivation more than theirs. The Cardinals are a team that hasn’t been able to sustain success under Murray. In the Murray era, Arizona is 15-20 straight up and 16-18 against the spread following a victory. Even worse, the Cardinals are just 4-9 against the spread with Murray after beating a team as an underdog of more than three points.

The Bears are also the better team. Chicago and Arizona have similar records, but the Bears are 10th in net adjusted EPA, while the Cardinals are 17th. Granted, the superior team doesn’t always win and cover, but the superior team isn’t always an underdog against a team that could be distracted.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I got word that a gambling syndicate hammered the Cardinals. I don’t know why. Maybe because Montez Sweat missed Wednesday’s practice, albeit with a shin. Perhaps someone knows that this injury is worse than it seems. I have no idea.

PLAYER PROPS: Cole Kmet’s receiving yardage prop looks great. The Cardinals surrender lots of yards to opposing tight ends. With the Bears having multiple injuries on the offensive line, Caleb Williams will have to go more intermediate than deep. The best number is over 28.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears have a lot of injuries. They might be down a couple of offensive linemen, while Montez Sweat was downgraded to DNP in Friday’s practice. Chicago will also be without Jaquan Brisker and perhaps Kyler Gordon. I’m switching my pick to Arizona, and I may bet this game depending on the inactives.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps continue to pound the Cardinals. I don’t love it, but I think they’re on the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news, bad news for the Bears. The good news is that they’ll have some of their questionable offensive linemen on the field, with Teven Jenkins and Ryan Bates both active. The bad news is that they’ll be missing several key players, including Montez Sweat, Kyler Gordon, and Jaquan Brisker. They’ll also be missing offensive lineman Braxton Jones. The sharps, as mentioned, are on the Cardinals. The best line is Arizona -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Unknown.

How will the Bears respond to the Hail Mary loss? Arizona may not be able to sustain success once again.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 59% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Cardinals are 49-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007. ???

Kyler Murray is 18-9 ATS as an underdog. ???

Opening Line: Cardinals -1.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.