2024 NFL Picks – Week 9: Patriots at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots won last week, but ownership and the front office couldn’t have been too excited. Not only did the victory worsen draft positioning; the win came without the services of Drake Maye, who suffered a concussion on an innocent-looking scramble. Jacoby Brissett somehow willed the team to victory over the Jets.

It’s unclear if Maye will be able to start. Regardless, New England’s quarterback will be tasked with carrying the offense because the Titans are often strong against the run. Tennessee didn’t have T’Vondre Sweat last week to help in that regard, but Sweat could be back this week, as could L’Jarius Sneed, who missed the past couple of games.

Rhamondre Stevenson won’t see much running room, so it’ll be up to Brissett or Maye. The duo loves throwing to Hunter Henry and Pop Douglas, but both options could be taken away by the Titans, who tend to defend the middle of the field rather well. Tennessee doesn’t generate a great pass rush in most cases, but things could be different this time because New England’s offensive line is broken.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans started Mason Rudolph for the second week in a row as a result of Will Levis’ shoulder injury. Rudolph didn’t make any of Levis’ patented bone-headed plays in his first start, but he made Levis-type throws versus the Lions. Then again, he delivered some nice strikes at the beginning of the game, as Calvin Ridley racked up 100-plus receiving yards in the opening quarter alone.

Rudolph couldn’t maintain this success against the Lions, but perhaps he’ll have better luck against the Patriots, who have a miserable defense. New England has the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, and Christian Gonzalez hasn’t been nearly as great as he was last year. Rudolph should be able to get the ball to Ridley the entire afternoon in this matchup.

Then again, Rudolph may not need to do much. The Patriots have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Tony Pollard projects very well against them.

RECAP: What a shame that we can’t fade both of these teams this week. The Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL, while the Patriots, who are even worse than them, are coming off their “Super Bowl” win against the Jets.

This truly is a horrible spot for New England. It’s very difficult for poor teams to sustain success. As evidence, teams with a winning percentage of .300 or worse coming off a win as underdogs of seven or more have a cover rate of about 42 percent since the lockout. I normally dont like trends, but it makes sense that bad teams wouldn’t be able to continue playing well after a victory.

I also like backing teams off humiliating defeats. The Titans are a bit different because they are awful, but they are playing against another horrendous team. They match up well against the Patriots, as they’ll be able to run with Pollard against a poor run defense, and they’ll be able to contain Stevenson without worrying about Maye’s scrambles (assuming Maye is out.) I like fading backup quarterbacks against top-12 defenses, and we have that situation in this matchup.

I’m going to be on the Titans for a few units, assuming we get -3. However, the line has crept up to -3.5 in some books. The line of -3.5 is the worst spread in the NFL, so I wouldn’t recommend laying that number with a bad team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, L’Jarius Sneed, and T’Vondre Sweat all missed Wednesday’s practice. If they’re all out, I won’t have any interest in betting on the Titans.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m not going to have anything on this game. I wanted to bet the over on Tony Pollard, but he may not play.

SATURDAY NOTES: L’Jarius Sneed is definitely out, so the Titans have cluster injuries at cornerback. If that were it, that wouldn’t be the worst thing against the Patriots, but Tennessee also listed the following players as questionable despite not having any of them practice all week: Tony Pollard, T’Vondre Sweat, Tyler Boyd, and Dillon Radunz. The Titans are way too banged up to lay -3.5 with them, but then again, New England will be very flat off its victory over the Jets. This is a non-bet for me now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tony Pollard, T’Vondre Sweat, and Tyler Boyd will play. I’d be willing to bet the Titans at -3, which is what the sharps have done. Most of the viable -3 lines are gone, but you can get -3 -118 at BetRivers. I’m going to bet two units on Tennessee at -3 -118. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Patriots are coming off their Super Bowl win, while the Titans were embarrassed.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -3.

Computer Model: Titans -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

The Patriots are a public dog.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 78 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.